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Severe Weather 2026

A small window for severe will exist, confined to the Gulf Coast here with volatile low level shear but most likely a conditional threat of a weak tor or two given modest instability and poor lapse rates. This threat seems to have become a bit more prominent on models lately
 

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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
A small window for severe will exist, confined to the Gulf Coast here with volatile low level shear but most likely a conditional threat of a weak tor or two given modest instability and poor lapse rates. This threat seems to have become a bit more prominent on models lately
Click to expand...

It's been there. Could get interesting. Would like to see the HRRR.
 
MichelleH said:
Day 3...

View attachment 50192
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One of the weirdest weather events for the South in recent memory. FFC calling for low-confidence, low-end risk for a few spin-ups in Central Georgia Sunday.
Thunderstorms in Central Georgia

Guidance continues to indicate a decent warm sector along the
Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon. EPS members consistently want to pull
this warm sector northwards into central Georgia, while the GEFS
members are almost all opposed to this solution. Precisely what
happens should depend on the track of the surface low. Given that
we anticipate a sharp gradient in temperatures Sunday afternoon,
our forecast for southern Georgia leans towards the EPS solution.
If this occurs MUCAPE values in the 200 to 700 J/kg range may
occur. This could support thunderstorm activity. Given that this
would be a high shear low CAPE environment, the primary concern
with any storms would be a brief spin up tornado. It should be
noted that this risk remains very conditional, requiring the warm
sector to reach central Georgia.
Click to expand...
 
Snownadoes and Icenadoes incoming!
 
00Z HRRR with literal QLCS and confluence bands across parts of southern MS/AL/GA on Sunday afternoon. Non-zero threat of damaging winds and spin-up tornadoes on Sunday, especially in southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Sounding from southeast Alabama. A couple hundred miles north, it'll be freezing over, but in southern AL you'll be in the low 70s and pushing 70 DP.
floop-hrrr-2026012400.refcmp_uh001h.us_se.gif1769219215806.png
 
Clancy said:
00Z HRRR with literal QLCS and confluence bands across parts of southern MS/AL/GA on Sunday afternoon. Non-zero threat of damaging winds and spin-up tornadoes on Sunday, especially in southern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Sounding from southeast Alabama. A couple hundred miles north, it'll be freezing over, but in southern AL you'll be in the low 70s and pushing 70 DP.
View attachment 50253View attachment 50254
Click to expand...

That's a solid hodograph and enough 3CAPE for some shenanigans.
 
A window for damaging winds/tornadoes will likely exist on Sunday, as shown above, if any prefrontal convection can get established, we may see a weak tornado threat develop. If line orientation is favorable, weak tornadoes may also exist in the QLCS. Seems like our system moving north has allowed for some small warm sector presence
 
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
eastern Gulf Coast states Sunday into Sunday night. Damaging gusts
are expected to be the primary risk.

...Synopsis...
A broad positively tilted larger-scale mid-level trough over the
central US is forecast to intensify Sunday as it moves eastward and
absorbs several smaller perturbations ejecting from the Rockies and
western CONUS. The most prominent of these smaller-scale features
will move from the Sabine Valley and central Gulf Coast,
northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and central Appalachians by
Monday night. Amplification of the overall trough and southwesterly
cyclonic flow aloft will support the development of a weak surface
low ahead of the cold front moving into the Southeast. Southerly
flow ahead of this low will result in modest modification inland of
a remnant Gulf air mass south of a large Arctic intrusion/cold air
damming. Weak buoyancy and strong forcing will likely support a band
of thunderstorms with the potential for some strong/severe storms
through parts of the eastern Gulf Coast Sunday afternoon.

...Eastern Gulf Coast States...
Gradual destabilization is expected early Sunday first over southern
LA and MS as the surface low and warm front lift northward. Strong
isentropic ascent over the shallow Arctic air mass will likely
support a band of initially elevated convection from portions of
East TX into southern LA and MS gradually spreading eastward. With
time, these storms will encounter the northward advancing modified
warm sector as the cold front impinges on the western edge of the
moisture return through the day.

Weak destabilization peaking around 500-750 J/kg of MLCAPE will
overlap with strong deep-layer shear of 50-60 kt. This will allow
for some intensification/organization of the ongoing storms where
the near surface air mass can destabilize. Likely linear in nature
owing to the strong frontal forcing, a few stronger segments appear
plausible, especially across southeastern Alabama and the Florida
Panhandle into southwestern Georgia late Sunday afternoon and
evening. Damaging gusts would be primary risk given 50-70 kt flow in
the lowest 1-3 km AGL. A brief QLCS tornado is also possible, but
less certain as the low-level wind field gradually veers through the
day as the main ascent lifts away to the north.

In the case of low instability, 1-3km mean flow typically means a damaging wind risk is more attendant, but brief tornadoes can't be ruled out.

Forecast by your only, Broyles
 
FFC's afternoon AFD on the severe threat tomorrow. Pretty classic low-CAPE-high-shear setup, with some really strong SRH values. Tornadoes possible, and I wouldn't be surprised if there was a surprise strong tornado somewhere tomorrow.
1769289333174.png
Central Georgia Severe Risk:

Speaking of warm air advection and the associated surface low,
indications continue to mount that a stout warm sector will surge
into Middle Georgia Sunday afternoon. As confidence in this
atmospheric recovery alongside significant shear has increased, the
Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook now includes a Slight Risk
across our southwest counties with a Marginal Risk for areas
slightly farther north (the delineation of which is largely based
upon uncertainty of how far north the warm sector will recover). As
mentioned in the SPC discussion, impressive shear (400+ m2/s2 0-3 km
SRH) alongside a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE will support the risk of
both QLCS-associated damaging wind gusts as well as a couple of
tornadoes. This threat would taper off by early evening as the warm
sector contracts eastward behind the system.
Click to expand...
 
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