Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CST Wed Nov 05 2025
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly
Friday afternoon to evening, from parts of the Deep South to the
Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis...
A broad mid/upper trough, consisting of several embedded shortwave
impulses, will be maintained across the Northwest to the East on
Friday. Primary feature of interest will be the southernmost
shortwave impulse, progressing east across the Lower MO and OH
Valleys. At the surface, a cyclone over the northern Great Lakes
will move into QC. An attendant cold front will trail southwestward,
impinging on the Lower Great Lakes to Mid-South by late afternoon.
...Deep South to OH Valley...
Modified moisture return from the south-central Gulf should yield a
plume of moderate buoyancy over the Lower MS Valley by Friday
afternoon, with progressively weaker buoyancy extending northeast
ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Elevated convection may be
ongoing at 12Z Friday in parts of the Midwest within the low-level
warm conveyor. This activity will probably persist through the day
amid pronounced mid-level height falls. Whether this can become
surface based into the OH Valley vicinity, along the periphery of
the aforementioned buoyancy plume, is uncertain. Despite potentially
meager instability at most, expected fast low to mid-level flow will
be sufficient to warrant low severe probabilities.
Farther south, more probable severe-storm development appears to be
centered from south-central KY across the TN Valley. This corridor
should have a better opportunity for weak to modest destabilization,
where strong deep-layer shear and hodographs would favor supercells.
Consensus of non-NAM guidance is insistent on late afternoon to
early evening convective development along/ahead of this portion of
the front, which appears sufficient to warrant a level 2-SLGT risk
highlight. How intense and widespread the severe threat may become
will largely depend on the degree of destabilization early.
Subsiding large-scale ascent from southwest to northeast on Friday
night casts low confidence in the longevity of lingering severe.
..Grams.. 11/05/2025
