Severe Weather 2025

[warneagle]

Honestly, I kinda wish we had a thread dedicated to learning how to read HRRR, troughs and other weather stuff like Skew-Ts. I'd love to look more into this but I simply don't know how to. I've tried learning before; it's just difficult to pick up.

Strongly recommend you watch the videos on this from Trey (Convective Chronicles) and the series of lectures that Rich Thompson from the SPC gave a few years ago, which are available on the OU School of Meteorology's Youtube channel.

 

[N0mz]

Strongly recommend you watch the videos on this from Trey (Convective Chronicles) and the series of lectures that Rich Thompson from the SPC gave a few years ago, which are available on the OU School of Meteorology's Youtube channel.

Cameron Nixon's "How to Hodograph" is a great intro for hodographs

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Cameron Nixon's "How to Hodograph" is a great intro for hodographs

Second that and Trey's videos; I learned more from those two guys' stuff in a month than I had in the previous nearly 20 years of trying to understand hodographs.

 

[JPWX]

I wouldn't be concerned about the forecast models "losing" the upcoming severe weather threats. My concern is they'll pick back up on the threat this weekend and going into next week.

 

[TheSuckZone]

4-8 Disco

...D6/Monday Plains and MS Valley...
To the west of the departing upper low, a second Pacific trough will
move onshore over the Northwest late this weekend before
intensifying early next week. As the main trough and several
small-scale perturbations within enhanced westerly flow aloft cross
the Rockies, a surface low may develop over the Plains potentially
allowing for some northward return of moisture coincident with
increased vertical shear. This could support thunderstorms and some
severe risk across the eastern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley.

Model guidance remains highly varied on the evolution of this system
with the GEFS/GFS notable outliers in its intensity among other
solutions. Guidance has trended toward an overall less amplified and
more disjointed evolution, with persistent mid-level troughing over
the eastern US. This would likely suppress northward return moisture
and any potential warm sector over the Plains and Mid MS Valley.
Still, some severe risk remains possible over the southern Plains
and lower MS valley early next week given the increase in surface
moisture and flow aloft. However, the evolution and potential
hazards remains very uncertain.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The spread is absolutely ridiculous, but looks like we may have trended towards a less favorable evolution of the trough for a big severe event. However, I suspect we could see a lot of changes still with all that is taking place with this energy, the lead wave, and Melissa.

 

[joshoctober16]

random supercell near Sussex new Brunswick Canada
currently some more over the water.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[JPWX]

Either way, though, we're getting severe weather though in some form or fashion.

 

[Kds86z]

Either way, though, we're getting severe weather though in some form or fashion.

Maybe 5% tornado risk?

 

[JPWX]

Yep. I can see it

 

[slenker]

I’ll just take this as a lesson and stop talking about potential events 10+ days in advance. Lol

 

[Kds86z]

I’ll just take this as a lesson and stop talking about potential events 10+ days in advance. Lol

You’ll be a lot happier I don’t get excited until the event is next day or so.

 

[Kds86z]

For today:

CAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AND HAIL IS LIKELY THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
HOWEVER, AS MOISTURE INCREASES NEAR THE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO. SEVERE RISK WILL
LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR
OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL NOT MOVE APPRECIABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

For tomorrow:

NORTHEASTWARD. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH 40+ KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

 

[Kds86z]

Day 3:


THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY THIS OUTLOOK CYCLE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE AND SAGGING OUTFLOW TO LIMIT THE SURFACE-BASED
WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTHEAST TX. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS OR BOWING
CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING GUST AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. WILL INTRODUCE 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY FROM ANTECEDENT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS (ESRH 150-200
M2/S2) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION MAY
NECESSITATE HIGHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.

 

[Kds86z]

Day 3:


THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY THIS OUTLOOK CYCLE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE AND SAGGING OUTFLOW TO LIMIT THE SURFACE-BASED
WARM SECTOR OVER SOUTHEAST TX. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND MID-LEVEL
SHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH COULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS OR BOWING
CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING GUST AND TORNADO POTENTIAL. WILL INTRODUCE 5%
SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY FROM ANTECEDENT
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS (ESRH 150-200
M2/S2) AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION MAY
NECESSITATE HIGHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.

@AJS

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

2-5% tornado risk issued for tomorrow

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Intrigued into why they upgraded it. Not doubting it but a fair surprise type 5%. Low end tornado or two i thought but seems like they think a few. Any residents near San Angelo, have a weather plan! Knowing 2025, get ready for the most random tornsdo possible!