Im thinking we see a enchanced risk for Arkansas by day 1.
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Severe Weather 2025
- Thread starter KevinH
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tennessee storm chaser
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If we do. It be in the northwest part of it … but damaging winds still the main threat
Nothing brings Uncle JuJu back like a fall severe weather setup
Ledian
Member
I see it happening as well. And while where i live is only in a marginal risk for now, i'm definitely keeping tabs on this system.
N0mz
Member
In my opinion, it's pretty likely we see a 10 hatcher for the 18th. GFS is pretty much consistent with developing the weak surface in the south Iowa area, and the euro is starting to pick up on it as well. NAM's mid 2000s CAPE is probably overdoing it a little, but otherwise good model agreement on at least mid 1000s, which is sufficient in these situations. NAM is also progging mid 100s 1kSRH, which I feel is a lot more realistic than the numbers RRFS is pumping out. RRFS 06z is less of a linear mode, but it's the only CAM in range right now.
CSU and CIPS models sure do think something is going to happen.
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
A Reed post without VIOLENT OUTBREAK in the text? Heresy.
joshoctober16
Member
random sea supercell south of halifax canada
- Thread starter
- #7,051
KevinH
Member
Here I am thinking about the start of severe weather in the fall, I check here, and BAM, I am behind 3 pages LOL!
Welp, I guess it is time to come out of hibernation on here, turn on some account notifications on Twitter again (mainly NWSSPC so I can see the outlooks). Oh and @Clancy, please don’t mention us (Georgia)… Shhhhhhhhhhh LOL!!!!
Does anyone else think that severe weather season (in the Deep South) basically runs from November to April? Not sure if “second season” still applies these days.
Just a question, don’t cancel me
hahahahaha
Welp, I guess it is time to come out of hibernation on here, turn on some account notifications on Twitter again (mainly NWSSPC so I can see the outlooks). Oh and @Clancy, please don’t mention us (Georgia)… Shhhhhhhhhhh LOL!!!!
Does anyone else think that severe weather season (in the Deep South) basically runs from November to April? Not sure if “second season” still applies these days.
Just a question, don’t cancel me
hahahahaha
joshoctober16
Member
my god, its to note the VTP would be showing up as 57.5
on my corrected VTP its at 14.3 , you can check that out here
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- #7,053
KevinH
Member
I am not sure how you embedded a SPREADSHEET in your post, but I like it lol
Where is this sounding from?
joshoctober16
Member
Here I am thinking about the start of severe weather in the fall, I check here, and BAM, I am behind 3 pages LOL!
Welp, I guess it is time to come out of hibernation on here, turn on some account notifications on Twitter again (mainly NWSSPC so I can see the outlooks). Oh and @Clancy, please don’t mention us (Georgia)… Shhhhhhhhhhh LOL!!!!
Does anyone else think that severe weather season (in the Deep South) basically runs from November to April? Not sure if “second season” still applies these days.
Just a question, don’t cancel me
pretty much its like
Tornado season 1:Late march to July
Tornado season 2:november
joshoctober16
Member
oh woops.. i never ment to make it appear like that... i just ment to give the link and not this strange .... embedded thing mode
let me try this again....
( docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EHx8-4Tn6hmx3Um8x7YBVEHf4UUvL1A0_e9TfN3bR6U/edit?usp=sharing )
just put in the (https://) part infront , im not sure why it puts a strange media mode on by it self , but i never ment to do that.
joshoctober16
Member
- Moderator
- #7,057
Except in Alabama it's more like late October through early May. Some of our worst tornadoes have happened in December, January and February.
Sharpy
Member
Per James Spann and likely other sources, that November-May is Alabama’s “tornado season”.Here I am thinking about the start of severe weather in the fall, I check here, and BAM, I am behind 3 pages LOL!
Welp, I guess it is time to come out of hibernation on here, turn on some account notifications on Twitter again (mainly NWSSPC so I can see the outlooks). Oh and @Clancy, please don’t mention us (Georgia)… Shhhhhhhhhhh LOL!!!!
Does anyone else think that severe weather season (in the Deep South) basically runs from November to April? Not sure if “second season” still applies these days.
Just a question, don’t cancel me
Some months in that time frame are bigger than others but every year is different.
joshoctober16
Member
STP is over 3.5 in the higher quality nam
VTP and my CVTP both at 8
VTP: 8.7
CVTP: 8.1
however this sounding seems more outflow messy then the last one.
a way to test this out is using my other composite parameter that is also in the link listed as DBRN , if its less then 0.16 on that parameter it tends to be outflow mess , and its at 0.10
DBRN is just like BRN however you replace the 0-6 km BWD with DCAPE
the famous May 20 2019 Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency had low numbers and is the only thing out of all the parameters that shows it would be a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency in some spots.
(note the inflow dominant zone is just guess work and not looking at the data like the outflow Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency)
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- #7,060
KevinH
Member