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Severe Weather 2025

I would assume the more less amplified solution that SPC talks about in the updated Day 3 discussion is the GFS?
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Not harsh at all. That's a perfectly reasonable take. He put so much work into it, it's worth testing though. I plugged some soundings from East Oklahoma/NE Arkansas into his program just for fun and these were the results. Even the most intense soundings aren't tornado producers here, which is interesting. And outflow dominance is the common theme.

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its to note the (simple most likely event) isn't accurate as like it says , its simple , think of it as a 40-70% chance zone.

also this whole time the outflow calculation was broken ... it is now fixed.
 
Kds86z said:
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looks like its going to be a (type II) QLCS tornado event and not a supercell tornado event.

i hate these events because the tornadoes tend to form to fast , and even die too fast , causing them sometimes to live only in the radar frame gaps with no sign of them ever being there.

they are also 95% of the time rain wrap.
 
joshoctober16 said:
looks like its going to be a (type II) QLCS tornado event and not a supercell tornado event.

i hate these events because the tornadoes tend to form to fast , and even die too fast , causing them sometimes to live only in the radar frame gaps with no sign of them ever being there.

they are also 95% of the time rain wrap.
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Agree 100 percent t
 
Yeah, never mind, this is just gonna be your run of the mill QLCS event. Magnitude of low level shear isn't great actually after a new check up on models but still isolated tornado or two possible with the QLCS but low chance. regardless, people need to watch out. QLCS tornadoes are VERY underestimated

Low level shear decreased severely on the latest runs of several models so even the QLCS will be limited with a tornado threat despite my previous thoughts. This has been a very back and forth setup. Damaging wind will likely be the primary threat.
 
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You can probably bet 100% on Monroe County, MS getting put under a Tornado Warning. Meanwhile, JP frantically tries to find where he misplaced the remote to turn off the tornado magnet.
 
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