Severe Weather 2025

[CheeselandSkies]

SAY WHAT?!

Looks like another round coming up for the Northern Plains/Midwest late in the week. Parts of MN/IA/SD.

oops my bad i dont know how i didnt see that cheeselandskies made a post about that apologies

All good.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[AJS]

Almost at 1,000 confirmed tornadoes for the year!

 

[Kds86z]

Almost at 1,000 confirmed tornadoes for the year!

Yep. I didn’t think June would turn out so active and not all tornadoes confirmed yet but 40 plus tornadoes from June 15-22

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Finally it looks like we are now in shelf cloud photo season

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Happy to see that there is a marginal risk now

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Clancy]

Thanks, I hate it. Please pay close attention to your pets and kiddos this week!

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1258 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

GAZ001>005-007-011>014-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-240100-
/O.NEW.KFFC.HT.Y.0001.250624T1700Z-250626T0000Z/
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Gilmer-Chattooga-Gordon-
Pickens-Dawson-Floyd-Bartow-Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-
Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-
Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-
DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-
Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-
Warren-Troup-Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-
Washington-Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-
Twiggs-Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-
Schley-Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-
Webster-Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
Including the cities of Conyers, Roberts, Fort Valley, Riverdale,
Ellijay, Eastman, Butler, Monticello, Toomsboro, Woodstock,
Abbeville, Thomaston, Carrollton, Buena Vista, Monroe,
Lawrenceville, Columbus, Fort Benning, Vidalia, Cordele, Trenton,
Ellaville, Chatsworth, Stockbridge, Sparta, Sandersville,
Jackson, Cartersville, Forsyth, Athens, Swainsboro, Marietta,
Vienna, Montezuma, Lumpkin, Hawkinsville, West Point, Comer,
Barnesville, Homer, Manchester, Dawsonville, Winder,
Wrightsville, Summerville, Talbotton, Gainesville, Madison, Rome,
Cochran, Preston, Soperton, Zebulon, Americus, Fort Oglethorpe,
Watkinsville, LaFayette, Dallas, Jeffersonville, Peachtree City,
Pine Mountain, Gray, Dalton, Franklin, Crawford, Mcrae,
Louisville, Eatonton, Newnan, Greensboro, Covington, Bremen, East
Point, Warner Robins, Jasper, Douglasville, Macon, Warrenton,
GIbson, Cumming, Mount Vernon, Crawfordville, Alamo, Atlanta,
Decatur, Washington, Dublin, Cedartown, Commerce, Griffin,
Calhoun, and Milledgeville
1258 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values up to 107 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, north central,
northeast, northwest, southeast, and west central Georgia.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Overnight temperatures Tuesday night will
provide limited relief, and heat index values will quickly rise
again Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Make adjustments
to outdoor activities, such as camps and sports. Provide shelter and
plenty of water for pets.

&&

$$

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Finally it looks like we are now in shelf cloud photo season

Maybe I'll see it from my porch! Been a notable lack of storms at home thus far this spring/now summer.

 

[JPWX]

A word of caution when looking at the HRRR or any future radar during the Summer months. The HRRR and future radar models are pretty much useless with the exception being a thunderstorm complex and/or tropical system. Here's a perfect example. Current Radar vs. 00z HRRR from yesterday not showing any thunderstorms until 7pm this evening.

 

[Clancy]

A word of caution when looking at the HRRR or any future radar during the Summer months. The HRRR and future radar models are pretty much useless with the exception being a thunderstorm complex and/or tropical system. Here's a perfect example. Current Radar vs. 00z HRRR from yesterday not showing any thunderstorms until 7pm this evening.

With the exception of (sometimes) getting big MCS's down, it's a crapshoot with the CAMs during the summer down here. Makes total sense, pop-up storms are not the same as big, synoptic setups. But yeah, if you wait for an afternoon with big storms and then pull up recent runs of the HRRR, you'll see it initiate reflectivity and then kill them all off immediately, which is rarely how it actually pans out.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Maybe I'll see it from my porch! Been a notable lack of storms at home thus far this spring/now summer.

nice i hope you enjoy your view of that shelf cloud structure

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

good to know clancy and jpwx just like james spann mentions that they still havent figured out how to get the pop up summer time showers to be exact so no meterologist or the weather model themself knows where they will occur but hope to do so with the next generation (i hope it didnt word all of that the wrong way)

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[JPWX]

Thanks, I hate it. Please pay close attention to your pets and kiddos this week!

View attachment 44439

I would be very hesitant to expect a 100 degree or above high temperature given the last 30 day rainfall percentage of average especially in areas that have seen a lot of rainfall. I know my ground is still fairly saturated.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

gotcha jpwx i saw that the rain is supposed to pick back up mid week and im guessing either lasting from early next week or mid week but hopefully just some summer time rain showers as the ridge breaks down but im guessing stays put also the mentioning of this too

"The June 29th-July 2nd timeframe looks to be quite wet and could have some at least localized flooding potential starting in KY and working its way gradually southward into TN as a cold front creeps slowly through.

If the ridging after the Independence Day sets up just to our west, we will have to be on the lookout for NW Flow MCS systems and at least localized flash flooding potential in the longer range."

the quoted section is from someone else but wanted to provide insights but it does suck we are stuck in this wet pattern

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

we have two slight risks one for tuesday and the other for dual slight risks wednesday and one dual marginals for thursday plus also a yellow highlighted risk too for friday

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

also for wednesday the spc added a 2% just to let grand poo bah and cheeselandskies know since they were both wanting to chase nadocast also has a 5% out for iowa too