Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS
TO THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts are possible over much of the Southeast, with
widely scattered strong to severe storms possible from the northern
High Plains eastward toward the Mid Atlantic.
...Synopsis...
The CONUS pattern will feature a trough across the western CONUS and
a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS Wednesday morning. This
pattern will deamplify during the period. A strong mid-level jet
streak will extend from northern Ontario to the Northeast with a
weak upper-low over Florida. A mid-level shortwave trough will move
from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes Wednesday
afternoon/evening.
...Central/northern High Plains...
A weak lee trough will extend from southeast Montana to northeast
Colorado. Weak to moderate instability will develop along this zone
during the afternoon and evening. Shear will be modest (25-30 knots)
with a few multicell clusters possible. Isolated large hail and
isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary hazards.
...Midwest into the western Great Lakes...
Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop south of a
warm front across the Midwest. A belt of 50+ knot mid-level flow is
forecast to overspread the warm sector and provide sufficient shear
for storm organization. In addition, some stronger low-level shear
will develop as a low-level jet strengthens during the
afternoon/evening. The stronger/more organized storms in the area
could have some tornado threat, particularly if any backed flow can
develop. At this time, the threat is expected too low for higher
severe weather probabilities.
...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Additional storms are likely to develop within a moderate to
strongly unstable environment along a frontal zone from the Midwest
to the Mid-Atlantic. Shear will be mostly weak which should limit
the overall threat. However, strong instability and a very moist
environment may support some threat for wet microbursts.
...Carolinas into the Southeast...
Extreme instability is expected to develop from the Carolinas into
the Southeast amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and temperatures in
the 90s. This extreme instability and scattered to widespread storm
development should be sufficient for a damaging wind threat. In
addition, stronger mid-level northeasterly flow is expected across
the eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia. This may result in even
greater storm organization and clustering where the stronger shear
is present. Some large hail is possible with damaging wind gusts as
the primary threat.
...Florida...
Cool temperatures aloft and moderate to potentially strong
instability is expected to develop across the Florida Panhandle on
Wednesday. Shear is forecast around 20 to 25 knots which may result
in a few multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. The
greater threat should be mostly focused on the west coast where the
sea-breeze convergence is stronger and shear is slightly greater
amid westerly low-level flow.
..Bentley.. 06/24/2025
