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Severe Weather 2025

Here's animations of the 500 mb winds responsible for that sounding from both the GFS and Euro's perspective.

1749058742997.gif1749058793695.gif

Certainly the nastiest looking low pressure system we've seen since mid-May.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Guys it happened! Look at this sounding I just pulled for next Monday! The analog is Palm Sunday. That's a BINGO! We've now seen all the most famous outbreaks on analogs. What do I win?

View attachment 43643
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I was trying to figure out where the heck would have had northwest flow aloft on Palm Sunday 1965. Looks like LIT is the Little Rock airport (interesting because I always thought that would have been LZK, matching the NEXRAD station identifier).

Further, 0Z 4/11 is 7 PM CDT on 4/10. An outbreak of tornadoes did indeed occur over portions of KS/MO/AR on the 10th, prior to the "main event" in the Great Lakes the following day. An F4 killed 6 people in Conway, AR.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Guys it happened! Look at this sounding I just pulled for next Monday! The analog is Palm Sunday. That's a BINGO! We've now seen all the most famous outbreaks on analogs this year. What do I win?
Click to expand...
Make sure to post the location along with the date, as well as the model you're using. That system that you are referring to is something I've kept my eyes on for a bit, GFS has been basically a non-event with it but the Euro has had a somewhat interesting presentation with it in the past few runs. The problem with it that I see is it comes in from the northwest, which tends to not be super great for moisture return. However, we're still a week out, so soundings and exact details aren't going to be super ironed out yet. It definitely has an interesting look as of now, though.

EDIT: 12z Euro kinda took a crap on it just now, lol.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I was trying to figure out where the heck would have had northwest flow aloft on Palm Sunday 1965. Looks like LIT is the Little Rock airport (interesting because I always thought that would have been LZK, matching the NEXRAD station identifier).

Further, 0Z 4/11 is 7 PM CDT on 4/10. An outbreak of tornadoes did indeed occur over portions of KS/MO/AR on the 10th, prior to the "main event" in the Great Lakes the following day. An F4 killed 6 people in Conway, AR.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I was super confused about LIT too. I looked up the 3 letter distinctions for each WFO and found nothing on the LIT abbreviation, so they must've redesignated it at some point in the 70s or 80s.
 
slenker said:
Make sure to post the location along with the date, as well as the model you're using. That system that you are referring to is something I've kept my eyes on for a bit, GFS has been basically a non-event with it but the Euro has had a somewhat interesting presentation with it in the past few runs. The problem with it that I see is it comes in from the northwest, which tends to not be super great for moisture return. However, we're still a week out, so soundings and exact details aren't going to be super ironed out yet. It definitely has an interesting look as of now, though.

EDIT: 12z Euro kinda took a crap on it just now, lol.
Click to expand...

It was the GFS over Kansas at 6pm CST on Monday. It was the first sounding I pulled from the spot with the highest supercell composite, so definitely cherry picked. It's on the Southeast side of the red circle.

1749060282303.png
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I thought @JPWX was a tornado magnet; seems the St. Louis airport is as well.
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St. Louis Airport and me have an arrangement. It sends me tornadoes March thru May then I send them tornadoes in June. LOL! However, there are times when we both get confused.
 
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