Severe Weather 2025

[Sky_I565]

Would not be surprised to see a Level 3 Enhanced for portions of the Mid-South region/North MS into Alabama Friday or Saturday

Interesting you would mention that JP. Im a little concerned about a Derecho devloping? Is that your thinkins or what?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Conditions are ripe for a significant derecho still , I mentioned this couple days ago

 

[Clancy]

Today's D1 SPC outlook is... something.

Also looking at a possible substantial damaging wind event tomorrow for the Mid-South into the Southeast.

 

[JPWX]

If there is going to a derecho type event as @tennessee storm chaser mentioned, Saturday would be your best contender. Even SPC in their Day 2 Outlook hinted at going Enhanced Risk for North MS, North Alabama, and North Georgia. However, the uncertainties at mesoscale level was the reason they haven't done it yet. Even got 2% Tornado Probability as well for North MS and Alabama tomorrow.

 

[kcyalater]

Today's D1 SPC outlook is... something.
View attachment 43786
Also looking at a possible substantial damaging wind event tomorrow for the Mid-South into the Southeast.
View attachment 43787

d1 is questionable graphic usage imo.

also i do not recognize formal severe threats in alabama in june. what even is this.

 

[Blountwolf]

This is from the Morton, TX wedge yesterday. This is from the RaxPol project from OU.

 

[Psalm 148:8]

This is from the Morton, TX wedge yesterday. This is from the RaxPol project from OU.
TORNADOCANE!!! Looks very similar to a cell structure saved as an example from the cool pics on the SPC site. Think their photo was from a storm in NC if I recall.
View attachment 43788

 

[Clancy]

Severe storms making their way across Alabama this evening. Likely the first of several rounds over the next few days.

 

[Avon]

Hey southern plains peeps stop hogging all the severe action! We need some interesting stuff up here in the midwest.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

https://x.com/Drewshearer444/status/1931525452721439117

Looks like big changes possibly coming up but hopefully nothing crazy up there also what is with the dew point surge into the 60s and 70s is this normal for June I’m thinking so but just thought I would ask

 

[Kds86z]

https://vxtwitter.com/drewshearer444/status/1931525452721439117?s=46&t=nTdsbQZkQMPkUI3zGjAXJg

Looks like big changes possibly coming up but hopefully nothing crazy up there also what is with the dew point surge into the 60s and 70s is this normal for June I’m thinking so but just thought I would ask

Not sure about DP’s but yeah @KakashiHatake2000 will have to monitor as time approaches and see what SPC says in their extended outlooks.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Not sure about DP’s but yeah @KakashiHatake2000 will have to monitor as time approaches and see what SPC says in their extended outlooks.

Yes I don’t really know or have access to that plus I think it’s behind a paywall but I just look to see what’s going on just as long as it’s not anything crazy

 

[Kds86z]

Yes I don’t really know or have access to that plus I think it’s behind a paywall but I just look to see what’s going on just as long as it’s not anything crazy

Access to what @KakashiHatake2000 ?

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Access to what @KakashiHatake2000 ?

Pivotol weather

 

[Kds86z]

Pivotol weather

Oh gotcha. I just follow SPC hahah @KakashiHatake2000 . Not into model reading yet

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Oh gotcha. I just follow SPC hahah @KakashiHatake2000 . Not into model reading yet

Same

 

[Kds86z]

https://x.com/Drewshearer444/status/1931525452721439117

Looks like big changes possibly coming up but hopefully nothing crazy up there also what is with the dew point surge into the 60s and 70s is this normal for June I’m thinking so but just thought I would ask

Some reason the link won’t show @KakashiHatake2000 so here.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Some reason the link won’t show @KakashiHatake2000 so here.

Been monitoring the 16th through 19th timeframe for a while. Tendency on the GFS/GEFS has been to keep the ridge a bit too amplified for my liking (most of the flow goes around to the north of where the instability is), but last night's 0Z Euro run got my attention. This is a box averaged sounding for northern IA/southern MN:



264 hours out, lots can and will change, but that is the trend I need to see for a chase opportunity.

 

[JPWX]

That would also put the Mid-South region at risk again for MCS activity as well going forward.

 

[WaryWarren]

Andy (not CheeselandSkies) wouldn't lie