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Severe Weather 2025

If there is going to a derecho type event as @tennessee storm chaser mentioned, Saturday would be your best contender. Even SPC in their Day 2 Outlook hinted at going Enhanced Risk for North MS, North Alabama, and North Georgia. However, the uncertainties at mesoscale level was the reason they haven't done it yet. Even got 2% Tornado Probability as well for North MS and Alabama tomorrow.
 
Some reason the link won’t show @KakashiHatake2000 so here.



Been monitoring the 16th through 19th timeframe for a while. Tendency on the GFS/GEFS has been to keep the ridge a bit too amplified for my liking (most of the flow goes around to the north of where the instability is), but last night's 0Z Euro run got my attention. This is a box averaged sounding for northern IA/southern MN:

ecmwf_full_2025060800_264_area_42.13-44.35.-93.78--92.24.png

264 hours out, lots can and will change, but that is the trend I need to see for a chase opportunity.
 
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That would also put the Mid-South region at risk again for MCS activity as well going forward.
 
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