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Severe Weather 2025

Looking at mesoanalysis and surface observations around tornado time... it looks like we got some fairly dramatic low level backing in the vicinity of the storm near the front and perhaps a small surface low, giving a narrow swath of effective helicity values of 400+; initial modeled hodos looked like mostly straight line westerly speed shear hail-supporting profiles with not much low level directional shear. Also we got some low to mid 60s dews into SW Iowa which really lowered the LCLs to a point more favorable for tornadoes, and the rapidly increasing CIN kept any junk away from the inflow. Very much a right-place-right-time storm.
 
Elevated supercells (one of them may have been the same storm as; or directly descended from last night's tornado-producers, I haven't had a chance to go back and look at the radar loops) produced a rather significant (by our standards) severe hail event across southern Wisconsin this morning. The HRRR portrayed this pretty well on a lot of the runs yesterday, however SPC didn't seem too impressed with only a marginal risk in place through 12Z (7 AM).

The station I work at was wall-to-wall or nearly wall-to-wall from shortly after the first severe thunderstorm warning went out at around 5:10, until the storms cleared our viewing area just before 8:00. A rare opportunity for me to work on live severe weather coverage on the morning side. :)
 
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CheeselandSkies said:
Elevated supercells (one of them may have been the same storm as; or directly descended from last night's tornado-producers, I haven't had a chance to go back and look at the radar loops) produced a rather significant (by our standards) severe hail event across southern Wisconsin this morning. The HRRR portrayed this pretty well on a lot of the runs yesterday, however SPC didn't seem to impressed with only a marginal risk in place through 12Z (7 AM).
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I was wondering if these were the same storms/closely tied to them, as well. I got woken up by the hail hitting our roof around 6:45 this morning! It was only quarter inch hail where I am, but I've seen some pictures of bigger stuff!
 
US_Highway15 said:
Not gonna lie, I haven't seen a more underwhelming setup for a slight risk in awhile. If I was able to storm chase anywhere today, it would 1000% be in central Oklahoma, where the most elevated tornado risk is at. Maybe Illinois might do a silly thing or two, but I doubt it.
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HRRR has a nice little pocket of higher EHI in southern Wisconsin coincident with the surface low passage this afternoon; varies from run to run on whether it actually does anything with it.
 
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