• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2025

Finally got the output from the 18z run on my WRF-ARW model, and it's somewhat anticlimactic! If this model is anywhere close to accurate, the rain on Sunday will be light and non-severe. The ultra-resolution version I misconfigured, so I'll re-run it again in the morning and see if anything looks more impressive. But this is the high resolution version (5 km). The ultra resolution is 1 km (for comparison, the HRRR is 3 km). I think I've also got STP and SCP working too, so may see if they light up on the map tomorrow. (By the way, I need to change the label -- it uses the GFS initial conditions, but this is the WRF-ARW model, not GFS.)dom2_full_radar.gif
 
wx_guy said:
Finally got the output from the 18z run on my WRF-ARW model, and it's somewhat anticlimactic! If this model is anywhere close to accurate, the rain on Sunday will be light and non-severe. The ultra-resolution version I misconfigured, so I'll re-run it again in the morning and see if anything looks more impressive. But this is the high resolution version (5 km). The ultra resolution is 1 km (for comparison, the HRRR is 3 km). I think I've also got STP and SCP working too, so may see if they light up on the map tomorrow. (By the way, I need to change the label -- it uses the GFS initial conditions, but this is the WRF-ARW model, not GFS.)View attachment 36917
Click to expand...
Awesome stuff you're creating
 
We're entering a period of a split/incoherent MJO. Approximately 3 to 4 weeks after these split MJO signatures in March 1974, January 2008, and early April 2011, all hell broke loose. The timing and placement of the next MJO consolidation/amplification will have major implications on the outlook for April. Right now there is nothing evident. Without a clear signal, I'm expecting low predictability of the upper-air pattern within the 384 hour model window for the next week or two. The extended ECMWF MJO forecast on the phase diagram is quite similar to the March/April 2011 progression. So we'll keep an eye on that.


1742624915279.png

1742624902664.png

1742625036557.png


1742624417915.png

1742624604642.png
 
AJS said:
View attachment 36934
GEM Model for next week.
Click to expand...

This an old run. No model looks like this now.

12Z ECMWF and GEFS for the above time. As you can see both are different. In this pattern, posting deterministic model runs is useless.
 

Attachments

  • Screenshot 2025-03-22 at 1.48.08 PM.png
    Screenshot 2025-03-22 at 1.48.08 PM.png
    2.6 MB · Views: 0
  • Screenshot 2025-03-22 at 1.53.13 PM.png
    Screenshot 2025-03-22 at 1.53.13 PM.png
    1.7 MB · Views: 0
Matt Grantham said:
We're entering a period of a split/incoherent MJO. Approximately 3 to 4 weeks after these split MJO signatures in March 1974, January 2008, and early April 2011, all hell broke loose. The timing and placement of the next MJO consolidation/amplification will have major implications on the outlook for April. Right now there is nothing evident. Without a clear signal, I'm expecting low predictability of the upper-air pattern within the 384 hour model window for the next week or two. The extended ECMWF MJO forecast on the phase diagram is quite similar to the March/April 2011 progression. So we'll keep an eye on that.


View attachment 36928

View attachment 36927

View attachment 36930


View attachment 36924

View attachment 36926
Click to expand...
Excellent work. I lived through the 1974 outbreak at the age of 13 in northern Jefferson County back then. Horrible night. I see the correlation you illustrated above with the global signal from then. Very interesting
 
Last edited:
I'm thankful for the reprieve from severe storms although we have tomorrow's threat. Which doesn't look like much, but I've learned to not ignore these low end threats as they can surprise. Like I've said from the beginning, bulk of activity will be April though we have a potential late month threat as the 12z Canadian hints at as well as the previous forecast runs off the GFS/Euro. March really wasn't expected to be that active. Preliminary TOR count for March is 224. You take out the 70 tornadoes on March 15th and the 91 on March 14th. Then the March Total TOR count would just be at 63. The March 14th and 15th outbreaks are the main ones accounting for the higher Tornado count this month.
 
Last edited:
Matt Grantham said:
Circling back to my post from early this morning. The split MJO signature is not just a precursor to bad things happening in 2-4 weeks. In fact we had that signature on 4/15/2011.

View attachment 36957​

Click to expand...
Wow, now that’s interesting. 4/14, 4/15 and 4/16 were big outbreaks in their own right and were only forgotten/overshadowed because of what happened on 4/27. That system moved East and at every point brought severe weather with it, from the plains, to Dixie, then to the Carolinas. 4/16 had some insane shear parameters, but were topped 2 weeks later.

Something very interesting with the 4/16 outbreak is the storm mode was linear at first. Then the line fragmented into discrete supercells instead of the other way around.

Here is a RUC reanalysis proximity sounding from North Carolina that day:

1742686637429.png
 
Last edited:
OKay, phew! After 10 hours of running, the WRF-ARW run of my model is finally finished. Here's what it shows for tomorrow:

First, a zoomed out 15km resolution composite radar:
radar_dom1_032325.gif

Next, a high resolution zoomed-in 5km view of composite radar:
radar_dom2_032325.gif

And an ultra-high resolution composite radar (1km resolution) on northern MS (a 112-mile zone around Oxford) (I'll try to get counties added in the future, at the moment it's just state lines):

radar_dom3_032325.gif


And the dewpoint and winds (speed and direction) shows you the front coming through:

DWPT_dom2_032325.gif

WND_dom2_032325.gif

I'm still working out the calculations on SCP, STP, and VTP but I'll hopefully have those up for future events. This event tomorrow looks pretty underwhelming with the radar just showing a broken line of rain showers.
 
Not the 00z HRRR showing a supercell storm in Monroe County at 10pm Sunday. It does make sense for that to happen. I wouldn't be shocked to see Monroe County included in that 5% TOR Probability by tomorrow morning.
 

Attachments

  • hrrr-starkville-refc-2785200.png 9pm.png
    hrrr-starkville-refc-2785200.png 9pm.png
    121.7 KB · Views: 0
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top