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Severe Weather 2025

Strong general indicators remain for potentially multiple severe risks in the mid-to-long range, 3/12-3/17ish range. We could have another threat 3/8-9, but there is substantial divergence among models, with CIPS not picking up on that one and SPC being skeptical at this stage. In any case, looks like an active spring.
As the short wave accelerates into and through the confluent regime,
models indicate that the cyclone will weaken while migrating across
the central Great Plains into Ohio Valley. But a trailing cold
front may provide a focus for renewed frontal wave development, as
an upstream mid-level perturbation accelerates east of the Texas Big
Bend through the south Atlantic Seaboard by late next weekend. This
may be accompanied by moistening and destabilization across parts of
the central and eastern Gulf into south Atlantic Coast states on
Saturday into Sunday, in the presence of strengthening shear. This
could contribute to an environment at least marginally supportive of
organized strong thunderstorm development. However, barring
stronger cyclogenesis than currently forecast across the Southeast,
the severe weather potential still appears relatively low.

..Kerr.. 03/03/2025
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Taylor Campbell said:
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Haven’t seen a set of GFS ensemble members quite like this in a long time. Maybe this one will actually be a big deal.
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Yeah, solid signal is there for something in the latter half of next week. SPC thinks it could start developing early in the week (per today's 4-8) but might have moisture issues, at least initially. Certainly bears watching as the next potential threat.
 
Strongest GEFS concurrence at this range I can remember in some time for this part of the world. The troughing is showing up on most ensembles in a really impressive fashion. CIPS still really zoning in on this period as well. Would really start keeping an eye on this period. After this, we may still have more active weather as the late month comes around.
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Clancy said:
Strongest GEFS concurrence at this range I can remember in some time for this part of the world. The troughing is showing up on most ensembles in a really impressive fashion. CIPS still really zoning in on this period as well. Would really start keeping an eye on this period. After this, we may still have more active weather as the late month comes around.
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DANG! Honestly not surprising in the least though.
 
I mentioned a few days ago that I'm training my very own custom tornado model that blends traditional weather modeling algorithms with quantum entanglement to more accurate predict the timing, location and intensity of tornadoes. The objective is to create a model that can predict individual tornado tracks, timing and intensity within a 5 mile margin of error and with a <15 minute margin hours before the event itself.

I'm happy to report the results so far have been quite promising, although more refinement is needed. Here's the projected risk map from an individual event I backtested (December 10th, 2023, the Mayfield Tornado)

The image below shows the model's prediction of the event roughly 12 hours before the main tornado forms (about the same time as an SPC 06Z update, or the first D1 forecast).

Obviously there's some noise/data leakage that needs to be addressed (the big 2nd risk are on the left is a clear false positive), but the model produced a highly accurate forecast for the tornadogensis coordinates of the Mayfield tornado.

I'll continue refining the model and will start running it on upcoming events!
 

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A long way to go of course but 0Z GFS has two strong systems, one on the 12th which is a bit moisture-starved but manages to prime the pump without wiping it offshore too badly, setting the stage for a potentially bigger one on the 14th. Forecast soundings are for entertainment value only at this range, but "PDS" types abound over MS/AL/TN and even into southern IL on this run.

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18Z Euro is more subdued but would also have a severe threat in the same timeframe, albeit over a smaller area.
 
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lake.effect said:
I mentioned a few days ago that I'm training my very own custom tornado model that blends traditional weather modeling algorithms with quantum entanglement to more accurate predict the timing, location and intensity of tornadoes. The objective is to create a model that can predict individual tornado tracks, timing and intensity within a 5 mile margin of error and with a <15 minute margin hours before the event itself.

I'm happy to report the results so far have been quite promising, although more refinement is needed. Here's the projected risk map from an individual event I backtested (December 10th, 2023, the Mayfield Tornado)

The image below shows the model's prediction of the event roughly 12 hours before the main tornado forms (about the same time as an SPC 06Z update, or the first D1 forecast).

Obviously there's some noise/data leakage that needs to be addressed (the big 2nd risk are on the left is a clear false positive), but the model produced a highly accurate forecast for the tornadogensis coordinates of the Mayfield tornado.

I'll continue refining the model and will start running it on upcoming events!
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That’s awesome. Are you incorporating topographic data into your model? If you happen to have a githib repo for your project, I’d love to check it out. I geek out over coding + weather.
 
CIPS and CSU's probs are picking up on the possibility of a threat March 8th or so, but not confident about moisture return and SPC is skeptical. Still, the big period to watch is mid-month. Large-scale stuff is clearly going to be in place, will just be a question of how it ultimately evolves.
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Clancy said:
CIPS and CSU's probs are picking up on the possibility of a threat March 8th or so, but not confident about moisture return and SPC is skeptical. Still, the big period to watch is mid-month. Large-scale stuff is clearly going to be in place, will just be a question of how it ultimately evolves.
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Soooooo we (potentially) have the 8th, 12th, 14th… SMH
 
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