Severe Weather 2025

[Parker Copeland]

oh, more svr weather? noted

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

The most severe weather we get here is strong Santa Ana winds. The cool Pacific Ocean shuts down pretty all thunderstorms during the summer unless we get a strong monsoonal push.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

oh, more svr weather? noted

What kind of severe weather are you getting?

 

[JPWX]

Really not surprised by any of the ramp up in the models with the severe weather threat and the heavy rain/flash flood threat as well.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

What kind of severe weather are you getting?

none, I meant in tracking terms

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

Geez. Not good

 

[JPWX]

I had 11.19 inches of rain in February 2019 with 3.75 inches from Feb. 19th thru 20th then 4 inches from Feb. 21st thru 23rd.

 

[Vertical]

Western NC definitely doesn’t need this.

 

[Ledian]

Not looking forward to that

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Flooding is going to be a real concern here in the Tennessee Valley next. If the GFS or Euro were to verify…yikes!

View attachment 33455

Yikes, looks like some of the highest totals are over the same areas that got wrecked by flooding in Helene.

Last several runs of the GFS also looks like a definite severe potential across some parts of the South on the 15th, with the usual caveats that it's a week out and the exact scope/ceiling will depend on the trough evolution. Latest 0Z run looks somewhat positively tilted and sheared out - not so much to be a total deal-breaker, but enough that the majority of the forcing, and the core of the LLJ are somewhat displaced from the most unstable part of the warm sector.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Yikes, looks like some of the highest totals are over the same areas that got wrecked by flooding in Helene.

Last several runs of the GFS also looks like a definite severe potential across some parts of the South on the 15th, with the usual caveats that it's a week out and the exact scope/ceiling will depend on the trough evolution. Latest 0Z run looks somewhat positively tilted and sheared out - not so much to be a total deal-breaker, but enough that the majority of the forcing, and the core of the LLJ are somewhat displaced from the most unstable part of the warm sector.

maaaan, If that does happen, I hope to mf god nobody is near Lake Lure, cuz that dam still has erosion on both sides and was still structurally comp from pre-Helene...... So if *ANY* form of heavy precip occurs, that sucker could jus go, and its not a small dam either.

 

[Clancy]

2 notable risk periods showing up. Usual caveats apply. At a glance, 15th period looks more potent from a synoptic perspective. Like Cheese said, not optimal-looking setup at this point but it would pose a threat in the South. Worth watching.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

2 notable risk periods showing up. Usual caveats apply. At a glance, 15th period looks more potent from a synoptic perspective. Like Cheese said, not optimal-looking setup at this point but it would pose a threat in the South. Worth watching.
View attachment 33467View attachment 33468View attachment 33469

a signal is a signal, they don't typically look good far out and can offen times just uptrend or die and disappear. def keep an eye out.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I am not seeing anything catch my attention just yet …..

 

[UK_EF4]

Surprised no one seems to be talking about some of the models for the 12th...

Unfortunately quite a bit of model disagreement, but general consensus seems to be a longwave trough with embedded shortwave - a setup which I generally think can be quite efficient at producing more powerful setups, especially in wintertime (2 very notable events from the last 8 years come to mind). This however obviously depends on having a prominent warm sector, which is where most of the uncertainty lies. GFS and GEM especially, and to an extent the ECM have weaker surface lows, quite small and unimpressive warm sectors. NAM, ICON and UKMET have a stronger surface low with a broad and quite deep (for the time of year) warm sector. Obvioulsy doesn't mean much but I've already started pulling PDS soundings off the NAM.



Very much could end up just being a heavy threat but I'll always pay attention to a syntopic like this

 

[UK_EF4]

Surprised no one seems to be talking about some of the models for the 12th.

Unfortunately quite a bit of model disagreement, but general consensus seems to be a longwave trough with embedded shortwave - a setup which I generally think can be quite efficient at producing more powerful setups, especially in wintertime (2 very notable events from the last 8 years come to mind). This however obviously depends on having a prominent warm sector, which is where most of the uncertainty lies. GFS and GEM especially, and to an extent the ECM have weaker surface lows, quite small and unimpressive warm sectors. NAM, ICON and UKMET have a stronger surface low with a broad and quite deep (for the time of year) warm sector. Obvioulsy doesn't mean much but I've already started pulling PDS soundings off the NAM.

View attachment 33471View attachment 33472

Very much could end up just being a heavy rain threat but I'll always pay attention to a setup like this. Will need a few more days of model tracking but were the NAM or UKMET/ICON to verify I could quite feasibly see a strong-intense tornado threat developing.

 

[Clancy]

The synoptics of the 12th, like @UK_EF4 said, are looking better, at least as modelled. Showing up as a notable signal on CSU's probs, GEFS and CIPS.

 

[Clancy]

12Z GFS for the 12th isn't classic-looking, but it would definitely support some threat. The 15th-16th period looks quite potent, though GFS isn't biting on much of a warm sector. SPC taking a wait-and-see approach for both days right now.

...DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Valley into Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity...
Precipitation appears likely to be ongoing within the warm advection
zone near the cold front on Wednesday. The primary shortwave
perturbation within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is expected to
move from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the
afternoon. A weak surface wave will develop along the front and
quickly move northeast. This overall pattern will not favor
significant northward progression of Gulf moisture. With deep-layer
shear remaining parallel to the boundary, a broad warm advection
regime, and stronger ascent displaced northward, confidence in more
than isolated disorganized severe storms is low.

The intrusion of cold air into the Gulf on Friday is expected to be
greater than earlier in the week. Portions of the northern Gulf are
likely to be impacted with some potential the cold air to reach the
central Gulf. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough is
forecast to reach the Southwest with a lee cyclone developing in
eastern Colorado. With the low deepening as it moves into the
Mid-South, rapid northward moisture return is possible within the
region through the day Saturday. This pattern would support severe
storms. Model guidance has had some consistency with the broad
pattern evolution, but has continued to differ run to run with
timing and intensity of key features. Further, given the colder air
that will be in place prior to any moisture return, the overall
quality of the airmass ahead of the upper trough is also not
certain. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored for this
coming Saturday.

...Portions of the Southeast...
As the surface low moves northeast, it is expected to deepen as it
moves into the southern/central Appalachians on Thursday. This will
push the cold front into Georgia and the Carolinas. A narrow
warm-sector ahead of the front may destabilize enough for isolated
strong to severe storms, but confidence in more widespread activity
is low given the uncertain buoyancy and the increasingly
northward-displace mid-level ascent.

On Sunday, based on current guidance, a similar scenario to Thursday
will occur. However, the trough/surface low are forecast to be
stronger and there is greater potential for a larger warm sector.
Uncertainty remains high this far in advance, however.

..Wendt.. 02/09/2025

 

[JPWX]

Regardless of severe weather issues or not (which I still believe we are gonna have a legit threat coming up soon), main story for now is How To Build Your Own Ark

 

[Austin Dawg]

It looks like a lot of rain in North Mississippi and North Alabama. You're gonna need a boat.