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Severe Weather 2025

WeathermanLeprechaun said:
It's hard to not recognise such strong moisture advection into the US with this really. When that spark comes, we'll see but i don't think this pattern will continue for long. Everything comes to a end eventually, and if our quiet period comes soon, we will see what 2026 delivers for its opening. Hopefully nothing explosive, that's for sure..
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JPWX said:
I don't know but two things stick out like sore thumbs for what should be a severe weather threat Sunday/Early Monday:
1. Significant temperature difference Sunday into Monday for Smithville. high 77 (might as well say 80) on Sunday to 44 Monday. A 36 degree difference.
2. Plus the ongoing severe weather/tornado risk in California.

Those two things tell me to watch for a more potent/significant risk. The other thing that also hints at this is the fact the NWS Jackson, MS mentioned in their afternoon AFD (Area Forecast Discussion) that guidance has trended a bit slower with the front passing through.
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Anything that drags rich moisture into the South this time of year is worth keeping an eye on; often leads to sneaky setups.
 
SPC mentions possible severe potential in the later mid-range.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 260853
SPC AC 260853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
D4/Monday will feature conditionally favorable strong low to
mid-level flow along/ahead of a cold front moving east across the
Southeast. The intense eastern Great Lakes/southeast ON cyclone
should occlude as a secondary cyclone forms along coastal ME into
the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is fairly consistent for this time
frame with indications of minimal instability along the trailing
portion of the cold front, as well as diminishing large-scale
ascent/convective signal through the day. Severe thunderstorm wind
probabilities appear at or below 5 percent.

The continental airmass spreading across the Gulf in the wake of the
frontal passage should yield minimal severe potential mid-week.
Towards late week, return flow will support airmass modification
along the western Gulf Coast. The EC-AIFS hints at a low-amplitude
shortwave impulse in the D8/Friday time frame, which could support a
return to non-negligible severe potential.

..Grams.. 12/26/2025
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Sunday, to me, looks like one of those days that could escalate really quickly particularly with a rapid deepening surface low plus things I've made mention of previously. I would be more surprised if this isn't a Slight or Enhanced by Sunday. Cloud cover issues could prove a positive for keeping the threat from being more significant, but I've seen from personal experience where that's not always the case.

Snippet from SPC Updated Day 3 Discussion: As the trough and surface low
deepen, flow aloft will also increase. A strong (45-55+ kt)
low-level jet will develop from the Mid South to the southern Great
Lakes, rapidly strengthening low and mid-level shear profiles. While
buoyancy will be marginal (250-500 J/kg MUCAPE), this should be
sufficient for stronger linear segments to organize along the
surging cold front.
 

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I'm personally getting a bit more interested in Sunday as time goes on, especially with how the SPC is wording it. While instability will be quite low and the moisture isn't going to be very high quality, it seems like the trough has taken on a pretty gnarly geometry in recent model runs outside of its slight positive tilt. It's no 12/10/21, but it seems quite adequate for at least some level of severe weather, potentially over a somewhat wide area. I'll be enjoying the warm weather until then.
 
Kds86z said:
We’ve had 1 tornado in December and 10 November. Definitely a slow end. No EF3 since Gary
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It's been a very interesting year. We'll end up above-average even with no more tornadoes for the year, but pretty remarkable just how many tornadoes we've had for the first half, and how few we've had for the second.
1766786488155.png
 
Clancy said:
It's been a very interesting year. We'll end up above-average even with no more tornadoes for the year, but pretty remarkable just how many tornadoes we've had for the first half, and how few we've had for the second.
View attachment 49284
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And on this chart, we can see with our own eyes the true visual representation of 2011, the Year of the Tornado.
 
JPWX said:
Sunday, to me, looks like one of those days that could escalate really quickly particularly with a rapid deepening surface low plus things I've made mention of previously. I would be more surprised if this isn't a Slight or Enhanced by Sunday. Cloud cover issues could prove a positive for keeping the threat from being more significant, but I've seen from personal experience where that's not always the case.

Snippet from SPC Updated Day 3 Discussion: As the trough and surface low
deepen, flow aloft will also increase. A strong (45-55+ kt)
low-level jet will develop from the Mid South to the southern Great
Lakes, rapidly strengthening low and mid-level shear profiles. While
buoyancy will be marginal (250-500 J/kg MUCAPE), this should be
sufficient for stronger linear segments to organize along the
surging cold front.
Click to expand...

slenker said:
I'm personally getting a bit more interested in Sunday as time goes on, especially with how the SPC is wording it. While instability will be quite low and the moisture isn't going to be very high quality, it seems like the trough has taken on a pretty gnarly geometry in recent model runs outside of its slight positive tilt. It's no 12/10/21, but it seems quite adequate for at least some level of severe weather, potentially over a somewhat wide area. I'll be enjoying the warm weather until then.
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Looks like some severe potential might get as far north as about the I-80 corridor in Illinois. Too bad I have to work (switched days due to being down a staff member who would normally fill the weekend position...as usual).

One thing that strikes me is the northern portion of the cold front isn't moving that fast. Along the MS River at 21Z and not quite to Chicago by 00Z Monday. Could mean forcing up here is more favorable for a discrete mode.

Yet again, lack of moisture isn't what's limiting the instability. It's bad lapse rates.

gfs_2025122618_051_41.25--89.75.png
 
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Tempted to pack my cameras before work on Sunday, blast south after getting off at 1 PM and just see what I can get. That's how bad my SDS (storm/supercell deprivation syndrome) is after my spring/summer were basically dead after May 18-19.

Of course, 0Z NAM throws cold water on that idea, keeping any sniff of a favorable warm sector quite a bit further south. However it is known to struggle with thermodynamics in the cool season. Something to watch, at least.
 
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Frustrating from a chaser standpoint because there's clearly potential there if things were to evolve just a little bit differently, but I am not seeing anything on the latest runs to suggest a dramatic uptrend in tomorrow's threat. Models remain consistent in the trough being just a little too positively tilted for anything widespread/higher-end, rather like 4/28 but without the instability.

On the 06Z NAM it does start to take on more of a neutral tilt by 03Z Monday, but by that time the surface low has raced all the way to western Lake Erie.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Frustrating from a chaser standpoint because there's clearly potential there if things were to evolve just a little bit differently, but I am not seeing anything on the latest runs to suggest a dramatic uptrend in tomorrow's threat. Models remain consistent in the trough being just a little too positively tilted for anything widespread/higher-end, rather like 4/28 but without the instability.

On the 06Z NAM it does start to take on more of a neutral tilt by 03Z Monday, but by that time the surface low has raced all the way to western Lake Erie.
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Wake me up in the beginning of spring . Snooze fest till then….
 
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1766855980869.png

The progressive nature of the front along with the paucity of
surface-based instability downstream renders large uncertainty in
whether lightning-producing convection will be maintained Sunday
night along the front. However, kinematic fields will become
increasingly impressive, with strong gusts likely accompanying
low-topped convection along the front. CAM consensus though is for
convection to wane early morning Monday as instability remains
negligible. As such, have maintained the prior level 1-MRGL risk for
wind, with a subset of low tornado probabilities from MO to IN.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Looks like some severe potential might get as far north as about the I-80 corridor in Illinois. Too bad I have to work (switched days due to being down a staff member who would normally fill the weekend position...as usual).

One thing that strikes me is the northern portion of the cold front isn't moving that fast. Along the MS River at 21Z and not quite to Chicago by 00Z Monday. Could mean forcing up here is more favorable for a discrete mode.

Yet again, lack of moisture isn't what's limiting the instability. It's bad lapse rates.

View attachment 49292
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That skew-T is essentially a festivus pole.

It’s pretty wild a large portion of the country is sitting in very above average temperatures in winter with no significant severe weather upcoming. You don’t need a ton of instability in the winter, but even by winter standards those lapse rates are putrid.
 
ColdFront said:
That skew-T is essentially a festivus pole.

It’s pretty wild a large portion of the country is sitting in very above average temperatures in winter with no significant severe weather upcoming. You don’t need a ton of instability in the winter, but even by winter standards those lapse rates are putrid.
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Ha, good analogy. Undecorated, and rife with grievances.

..."LET'S RUMBLE!"
 
ColdFront said:
That skew-T is essentially a festivus pole.

It’s pretty wild a large portion of the country is sitting in very above average temperatures in winter with no significant severe weather upcoming. You don’t need a ton of instability in the winter, but even by winter standards those lapse rates are putrid.
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Just not the lapse rates. It’s the troughs a aren’t
Digging enough , any system will have hard time getting amped up
 
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