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Severe Weather 2025

Clancy

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SPC watching the D6-8 range closely. CIPS, CSU signals showing up across parts of the South.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low Days 4-5/Wed-Thu.
Surface high pressure over the Southeast, and a prior cold frontal
passage deep into the Gulf of Mexico will result in a dearth of
boundary-layer moisture, precluding thunderstorm activity.

Medium range guidance continues to indicate that thunderstorm
potential will increase sometime on Day 6/Fri, and into Days
7-8/Sat-Sun. While details remain uncertain, most guidance depicts
strong deep-layer southwesterly flow spreading from the southern
Plains into the Southeast and Ohio Valley as a series of embedded
shortwave troughs migrate through a broader upper trough across
central and eastern portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface low
is expected to deepen over the Plains on Day 6/Fri, allowing
south/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf to
transport modest moisture northward across the TX vicinity. As the
low progresses east/northeast through the end of the period,
boundary-layer moisture will increase ahead of a cold front across
the Southeast on Day 7/Sat. While surface low and upper trough
track/timing, and quality/extent of northward moisture return remain
uncertain, some increasing severe potential is possible Days
6-7/Fri-Sat across portions of east Texas into the Lower MS
Valley/Gulf Coast vicinity. Outlook probabilities may become
necessary in the next day or two if forecast confidence increases.

..Leitman.. 01/12/2025
1736712567138.png1736712571378.png
 

Austin Dawg

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With the EF1 tornado in Monroe County last Sunday, our county total tornado count is 55 with a 4.6 County average/reoccurrence with Lee County is 54 with a 4.5 County average/reoccurrence. Total North MS tornado count is now 664.
I still find it fascinating that Monroe County has so many tornadoes. I wonder what you would make a graph that shows some of the top MS counties in the state through the past few decades and maybe how that might have changed within these time periods, especially through each year. Just curious
 

JPWX

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I still find it fascinating that Monroe County has so many tornadoes. I wonder what you would make a graph that shows some of the top MS counties in the state through the past few decades and maybe how that might have changed within these time periods, especially through each year. Just curious
That's not a bad idea and one I could easily make at some point. I wish I could learn to code or get someone to make multiple data graphs for me using all the data I've collected. I will definitely do that at some point though.
 

Ledian

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That's not a bad idea and one I could easily make at some point. I wish I could learn to code or get someone to make multiple data graphs for me using all the data I've collected. I will definitely do that at some point though.
I like that idea. Curious to see where Pontotoc County stacks up...i know that for Mississippi's standards, we aren't the most active county for touchdowns. Not in the last 20 years anyway
 

Austin Dawg

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I like that idea. Curious to see where Pontotoc County stacks up...i know that for Mississippi's standards, we aren't the most active county for touchdowns. Not in the last 20 years anyway
I have a feeling it would migrate from south/north every season and it would be interesting to see how it migrated from West/East or if it did
 

Fred Gossage

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At least as of current writing time, there's nothing organized/widespread on the horizon in the immediate foreseeable future. The systems that were initially looking like potentially more of a convective situation have already begun leaning more toward a direction of either being overrunning rain events or potentially even more winter threats for some portions of the Southeast. That's not too surprising given that, in a large scale sense, it doesn't look like we're going to significantly shake this pattern of waves leading to eastern troughing and cooler than normal conditions anytime soon, outside of short reprieves. As a matter of fact, ensembles and the "weeklies" datasets have shown big eastern troughing and potential Southeast wintry threats going deep into late February.

Outside of "nickel & dime" potential events, I don't see severe weather wholesale waking up anytime really soon. Instead of a La Nina season where we max our Nina-driven severe activity early in the year and then it shifts away before spring even starts, I think this is acting like other La Nina years we've seen in years past (especially first-year La Ninas) where we are delaying the wholesale start of things until spring. I wouldn't be shocked if we see an April peak in Dixie this year, something we haven't seen in a while.

Oh, and yes, we are officially in "La Nina conditions" as declared by CPC. That snuck in while we were watching the winter storm across the Deep South back last week. The colder waters have been long-term situated in ENSO Regions 3.4 and 4 though, making this a west-based La Nina. For those of you that have read up on the Trans-Nino Index at some point over the past several years and how a positive phase of that thing can affect tornado frequency and intensity, my post has probably already made your ears perk up.

We'll see what happens...
 
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At least as of current writing time, there's nothing organized/widespread on the horizon in the immediate foreseeable future. The systems that were initially looking like potentially more of a convective situation have already begun leaning more toward a direction of either being overrunning rain events or potentially even more winter threats for some portions of the Southeast. That's not too surprising given that, in a large scale sense, it doesn't look like we're going to significantly shake this pattern of waves leading to eastern troughing and cooler than normal conditions anytime soon, outside of short reprieves. As a matter of fact, ensembles and the "weeklies" datasets have shown big eastern troughing and potential Southeast wintry threats going deep into late February.

Outside of "nickel & dime" potential events, I don't see severe weather wholesale waking up anytime really soon. Instead of a La Nina season where we max our Nina-driven severe activity early in the year and then it shifts away before spring even starts, I think this is acting like other La Nina years we've seen in years past (especially first-year La Ninas) where we are delaying the wholesale start of things until spring. I wouldn't be shocked if we see an April peak in Dixie this year, something we haven't seen in a while.

Oh, and yes, we are officially in "La Nina conditions" as declared by CPC. That snuck in while we were watching the winter storm across the Deep South back last week. The colder waters have been long-term situated in ENSO Regions 3.4 and 4 though, making this a west-based La Nina. For those of you that have read up on the Trans-Nino Index at some point over the past several years and how a positive phase of that thing can affect tornado frequency and intensity, my post has probably already made your ears perk up.

We'll see what happens...

Good to have you back, Fred!
 

JPWX

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At least as of current writing time, there's nothing organized/widespread on the horizon in the immediate foreseeable future. The systems that were initially looking like potentially more of a convective situation have already begun leaning more toward a direction of either being overrunning rain events or potentially even more winter threats for some portions of the Southeast. That's not too surprising given that, in a large scale sense, it doesn't look like we're going to significantly shake this pattern of waves leading to eastern troughing and cooler than normal conditions anytime soon, outside of short reprieves. As a matter of fact, ensembles and the "weeklies" datasets have shown big eastern troughing and potential Southeast wintry threats going deep into late February.

Outside of "nickel & dime" potential events, I don't see severe weather wholesale waking up anytime really soon. Instead of a La Nina season where we max our Nina-driven severe activity early in the year and then it shifts away before spring even starts, I think this is acting like other La Nina years we've seen in years past (especially first-year La Ninas) where we are delaying the wholesale start of things until spring. I wouldn't be shocked if we see an April peak in Dixie this year, something we haven't seen in a while.

Oh, and yes, we are officially in "La Nina conditions" as declared by CPC. That snuck in while we were watching the winter storm across the Deep South back last week. The colder waters have been long-term situated in ENSO Regions 3.4 and 4 though, making this a west-based La Nina. For those of you that have read up on the Trans-Nino Index at some point over the past several years and how a positive phase of that thing can affect tornado frequency and intensity, my post has probably already made your ears perk up.

We'll see what happens...
I've had that same thought as well.
 

slenker

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What is the difference between how the CFS vs. the other models work? It goes out way further and is notably weaker on resolution so I'm guessing it's a much simpler model.

To me, the CFS seems to be showing some sort of pattern flip favorable for severe weather in February, and the ECMWF is showing something (marginally) congruent to that, but I'm guessing it's way too far out to draw any conclusions. Some of the warm sectors I am seeing are really quite something when it gets to about 180+ hours out and they are not getting fully shunted out far into the Gulf before they bleed back into the US - it seems like the consensus here is the opposite of that.
 

JPWX

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What is the difference between how the CFS vs. the other models work? It goes out way further and is notably weaker on resolution so I'm guessing it's a much simpler model.

To me, the CFS seems to be showing some sort of pattern flip favorable for severe weather in February, and the ECMWF is showing something (marginally) congruent to that, but I'm guessing it's way too far out to draw any conclusions. Some of the warm sectors I am seeing are really quite something when it gets to about 180+ hours out and they are not getting fully shunted out far into the Gulf before they bleed back into the US - it seems like the consensus here is the opposite of that.
CFS switches about as much as the GFS and does not do well in the long range from what I've heard. It's fun to look at but just don't take it at face value. I'm not a model expert by any means. However, when I look at the forecast models that shows either winter or severe weather potential, I ask myself does that make sense with the overall pattern. This makes me wish there were more meteorologists, who know more about how the intricate details of each forecast model, out there who were willing to teach the normal citizens about how forecast models work. I would be glad to teach if more people would have time to listen to me, but the speech impediment is the biggest obstacle.
 

Clancy

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CFS switches about as much as the GFS and does not do well in the long range from what I've heard. It's fun to look at but just don't take it at face value. I'm not a model expert by any means. However, when I look at the forecast models that shows either winter or severe weather potential, I ask myself does that make sense with the overall pattern. This makes me wish there were more meteorologists, who know more about how the intricate details of each forecast model, out there who were willing to teach the normal citizens about how forecast models work. I would be glad to teach if more people would have time to listen to me, but the speech impediment is the biggest obstacle.
My general rule is unless the CFS shows a very strong and consistent signal, I mostly ignore it. I know some people have previously affectionately referred to it, understandably, as standing for Can't Forecast for S***.
 
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