Severe Weather 2025

[brianc33710]

Here is the latest GFS for next Friday. There's less moisture connection. But N AL still gets some snow.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Latest global model runs make me think any severe will be limited to the Gulf Coast. South Texas near Houston, coastal S. Lousiana, and coastal S. MS/AL.
Also, CWASP has an 80 contour over Houston.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[cincywx]

glad to see a camera with eyes on this. this northern part of california hasn't had much in the way of documented tornadic activity, well, ever:

 

[Kds86z]

Wow. First nado of 2025

 

[Austin Dawg]

Wow. First nado of 2025

California has our first tornado? That might not be good.

 

[JPWX]

Years where California had first tornado of the year (since 2000):
2023
2021
2019
2018
2017
2016
2010
2009
2008
2006
2005

 

[Kds86z]

Years where California had first tornado of the year (since 2000):
2023
2021
2019
2018
2017
2016
2010
2009
2008
2006
2005

Wow… didn’t realize

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Upgrade

 

[MichelleH]

Thanks for the update Clancy, but you got my hopes up. Saw there was a new post in this thread and thought the models were showing a severe threat in the extended which means it would be WARMER. *sigh*

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Thanks for the update Clancy, but you got my hopes up. Saw there was a new post in this thread and thought the models were showing a severe threat in the extended which means it would be WARMER. *sigh*

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

While below-normal temperatures are forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. in
the near-term, the strengthening MJO across the Indian Ocean historically favors a warm
extratropical response over the U.S., and a pattern reversal toward warmer temperatures could
begin toward the end of the month or in early February.

CFS weekly



Climate models

 

[Kds86z]

CFS weekly

View attachment 32799

Climate models

View attachment 32800

Hope so…

 

[SilentShadow87]

Years where California had first tornado of the year (since 2000):
2023
2021
2019
2018
2017
2016
2010
2009
2008
2006
2005

Just out of curiosity and not trying to be rude at all, but where did you get that info? NCDC says it was Arkansas in 2023, Georgia in 2021, Alabama in 2019, Virginia in 2018, Texas in 2017, Mississippi in 2009, Missouri in 2008, Louisiana in 2007, and Mississippi in 2006 and 2005. CA did have the first tornado of the year in 2010 and 2016 though.

 

[JPWX]

Just out of curiosity and not trying to be rude at all, but where did you get that info? NCDC says it was Arkansas in 2023, Georgia in 2021, Alabama in 2019, Virginia in 2018, Texas in 2017, Mississippi in 2009, Missouri in 2008, Louisiana in 2007, and Mississippi in 2006 and 2005. CA did have the first tornado of the year in 2010 and 2016 though.

SPC

 

[Clancy]

While it snows in the South: Severe Thunderstorms in Hawaii.

 

[JPWX]

According to IEM (Iowa Environmental Mesonet), this is the first Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Maui in January on record (going back to 2004)

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

GFS and Euro have been showing signal for another Dixie Alley trough around Jan 18-19. Something to keep an eye on.

 

[MichelleH]

GFS and Euro have been showing signal for another Dixie Alley trough around Jan 18-19. Something to keep an eye on.

Figures, since there's another temperature plunge expected the 20th.

 

[Clancy]

A severe signal has been showing up on the week 2 range for a little bit now from CFS.

 

[JPWX]

O joy. Can't wait to have a span of all seasons within a week again.