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Severe Weather 2025

KakashiHatake2000 said:
arent we supposed to be in a weak la nina i hope we can squeeze out some cold and winter weather out of that too maybe over the majority of severe weather haha i wish
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La Niña cuts my snow chances, so bleh.
 
Kds86z said:
You like snow v?
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I do kinda. I flip flop on it a lot. This past winter season had by far the most snow I’ve seen in what at the time was just over 2 years of living in this state.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Good chance we are starting see an active late fall into even part of winter severe weather risks . As stronger La Niña start take shape later this fall
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Is that what's expected to happen? Haven't really seen too much on the ENSO forecast for later this year. Thought it was more likely to remain close to neutral/weak Nina at most.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Is that what's expected to happen? Haven't really seen too much on the ENSO forecast for later this year. Thought it was more likely to remain close to neutral/weak Nina at most.
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I think models have been shifting towards a stronger signal for a La Nina in the past few weeks going into this winter. I'm unsure of what that means for the midwest - I'm not super familiar with how ENSO affects different parts of the country severe weather wise.
 
Aaron Rider said:
A cold, bitter winter with snow is better than a cold, bitter winter with none. I'll go to my grave saying that for a variety of reasons.
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We also had an 80 degree day in February at roughly 35idh degrees north, which is the latitude around where I live.
 
Yeah recent model runs including the CFSv2 and NMME ensembles have been trending toward a more defined and possibly moderate La Niña developing later this fall and into the winter subsurface cooling in the equatorial Pacific has intensified, and trade winds have strengthened both classic precursors to La Niña. As this signal continues, confidence in a La Niña pattern setting in is increasing week by week which could mean trouble for the Midwest in regards to severe weather.
 
Timelapse from our former chief engineer's webcam. At 1:31 the inflow band moves overhead and I think a second or two later the tornado spins up toward the right of the frame, he says it didn't form until just out of frame but I think it's just tough to see due to lack of contrast against the rain core from this angle. Then a dramatic RFD clear slot follows as the supercell pushes off to the northeast.

 
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