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Severe Weather 2025

buckeye05 said:
In response to your first bolded point, what you are describing is how slider homes typically respond in the EF2 range. EF3s typically flatten the walls, floors, and roof of slider homes after the house separates from the foundation, and the wind sends the lighter/smaller debris downwind, while the main parts of the house end up in a pile nearby. This is exactly what happened in Gary.

Regarding the second bolded point, what you’re describing isn’t really what happened. A majority of the home was not carried away in tiny pieces or genuinely granulated. The main structural components of the home, which are what matter the most rating-wise, were left in a heap next to the foundation with a clear space in between. That’s what that heap is in the aerial photo. Yes other debris was carried downwind, but this was smaller and lighter debris. This is consistent with what I described in paragraph one above. You’re essentially trying to say that an unimpressive, textbook slider debris pattern is an impressive debris pattern, when it just isn’t. Any time there is a significant pile of debris separated from the foundation, it’s not an impressive debris pattern, regardless of additional small debris scattered farther away. In fact, I’d go as far as saying that Gary could be used as the textbook case study of what the EF3 slider debris pattern looks like.

My next point is related the third and fourth bolded sections, regarding the potential structural integrity of home. You’re saying “well unless these environmental things happened” as if these things are unlikely. They aren’t unlikely. In fact, these things are essentially an inevitability when dealing with a historic wood frame house of this age. And that’s not all. There’s also dry rot, which happens slowly and pretty much inevitably over time regardless of any termites or moisture. There’s also the structure’s gravity-related weakening, warping and settling over time. Drive through any old Southern of Appalachian town with old wood frame buildings. You will see some of them are visually off-kilter or askew from this phenomenon. In fact, I remember eating breakfast at an old wood-frame historic inn in North Carolina where the second floor dining room noticeably sloped downward from the front of the room to the back. If you set a ball down, it would roll. It was quite sketchy. Basically, you’re insinuating that old historic wooden farm homes should be assumed as sturdy, when the opposite is true. Even if they were in 1900, they certainly aren’t in 2025, and that’s because of the inevitable wear and tear of the elements and plain old time. Old wood frame homes are usually frail, bottom line.

That brings me to my final point, it’s still a slider. That literally renders everything else null. You can talk about the hypothetical structural integrity of the house itself all you want, but when all that house is in the process of sliding and tumbling off a foundation, the structural integrity is no longer relevant. You say “Yeah it’s pretty much unanchored, BUT…” What you’re not understanding is once that’s established, there are no buts. When it’s unanchored/a slider and the main structural debris is left nearby in a heap, you can throw your EF4 rating out the window, period.

I give you credit for arguing some counterpoints, but it just doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. There’s simply far more going against an EF4 rating than there is to support it. As I said, Gary is a straight-up textbook example of how slider homes respond to an F3/EF3 tornado. I’d even go as far as saying that if a large, modern, well-built home was sitting there instead of an old farm house, we’d likely see some intact interior walls left behind.
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These are all very fair and valid points and I concede to the conclusions you've drawn. Definitely seems like Enderlin fits the bill way better in terms of total disappearance of a home along with violent contextuals in the immediate vicinity (debarking and scouring). Plus that dang train car!
 
More crazy weather here in the East

"From 4 p.m. Monday through 2 a.m. Tuesday, Lancaster County received more than 3.6 inches of rain at Lancaster Airport, according to the NWS.

The Conestoga River rose from 5 feet to just more than 9 feet in a matter of 15 hours, is in a minor flooding stage and is continuing to rise, according to the NWS. Chiques Creek flooded in the Manheim area as well."

I've heard wild stories about even heavier rains in Lancaster County. It was bizarrely spotty. Major flooding in spots, barely 3/4ths of an inch at my home. First pic is Manheim, PA. Second is Lititz Springs Park

6863e831a7ffc.image.jpg6863ee3ec28a1.image.jpg
 
I think so far this year, the craziest/most menacing looking tornado we’ve seen has got to be the Lake City/Bay, AR tornado. The ludicrously violent motion coupled with the extreme horizontal vortices made it look so eerily similar to Tuscaloosa, 2011.
 
MichelleH said:
Please repost this here - https://talkweather.com/threads/noaa-nws-budget-cuts.2359/ We aren't starting this discussion in this thread again.
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Well I would repost it, but I can't find the statement anymore... So thanks for deleting it... This is my last comment on the topic, but I want it known I protest this decision wholeheartedly. These are the leading authorities of severe weather and hurricane research we're talking about here. The ENTIRE Severe Storms Laboratory has been shut down. This is the agency responsible for all tornado research. Gone. These aren't cuts. It's decapitation. Wtf are we doing here if we aren't allowed to talk about this current event in the severe weather 2025 thread? How is it acceptable for such an important and prominent weather forum to sit idly by and watch the leading authorities in the weather community get fired in complete silence? And the entire reason is just to keep the most belligerent, non-contributors on the site happy? I don't get it...

This moment is huge. It's as big as the worst outbreaks and strongest hurricanes. We're really going to look back in ten years and have to see we sat this one out as a community?

edit: Also the pinned thread you linked is locked. No one can even comment on it. We have to follow another link to a hidden thread to even discuss. That's crazy. Which mod is so afraid of this discussion he or she can't even put it on the front page straight up?
 
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