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Severe Weather 2025

SPC did note in the 20Z outlook that a 10% tornado (Enh risk) upgrade was considered, but ultimately refrained from.

MCV+warm front+a greater-than-average amount of heating is a pretty classic recipe for tornadic shenanigans around here, but I think overall environmental shear, as well as lift for supporting initiation with significant residence time in the destabilized part of the warm frontal zone, is just a little bit too weak for a higher-end type outcome.
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
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So.... does this mean we get to actually use the RRFS for hurricane forecasting?! LOL! I'm honestly gonna miss seeing the 3km NAM 865mb or lower super category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic.
 
JPWX said:
So.... does this mean we get to actually use the RRFS for hurricane forecasting?! LOL! I'm honestly gonna miss seeing the 3km NAM 865mb or lower super category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic.
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im not sure could maybe be interesting or good forecasting tool for hurricane forecasting with the rrfs as long as it doesnt do crazy shenanigans the nam had done especially with severe weather events i dont know much about weather models but i just feel like the nam is a very aggressive model
 
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