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Severe Weather 2025

After the EF3 tornado hit Amory in March 2023, the city didn't get federal funding and made it just fine thru the help of both local and state governments.
 
Kds86z said:
Oh really @JPWX ? I had no idea. I’m not trying to be political or for one party. Just was concerned people lost homes in Arkansas.
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I know, but I just think there needs to be some perspective added in. I know Rolling Fork did get it. I'm not trying to get political either. I'm all for federal assistance and all, but at the same time, the local county has to step up instead of relying fully on government funding after disasters if denied. Maybe it'll get all sorted out, but then again, you look for alternative solutions through local United Way agencies, EMA, and other local non-profits to help. Not many know this, but my sweet mom (who was the Executive Director for the United Way of Greater Monroe County at the time of the Smithville tornado) got the okay to use a massive furniture factory in Smithville and literally coordinated the relief supplies, volunteers, etc.
 
Kds86z said:
What you mean?
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Just trying to decipher if there's great tornado potential on Monday and Tuesday, or if it's mainly going to be mainly damaging wind driven (straight-line winds). It's confusing because there's some reason to believe that there's good tornado potential on Monday, because of CAPE values between 2500-3000, as well as dew points between 65 - 70 degrees, but SRH values don't scream "several tornadoes" as 0-3km are only around 250 on average, with 0-1km around 180-200, which is right at minimum values needed for tornadoes.
Hodographs also seem to be very well-rounded, which is very interesting. However, models are also a little bit all over the place when it comes to winds at the surface (850-925 mb). Some models runs they look more impressive than others, but that's mainly due to being so far out.
Nonetheless, still looks to be a good potential severe weather event, but still trying to decipher if that includes several tornadoes, or if its mainly going to be straight line winds. It's confusing so far that's for sure.

Tuesdays honestly looks more impressive in terms of the speed of the upper level winds and lower level winds when the severe weather shifts over to the Great Lakes, but there's less moisture and CAPE values, at least when you compare it to Monday.
 
Do we think it might be time to make a separate thread for Sunday-Monday-Tuesday?

A lot can change in the D4-6 range, but at least this stage this looks like a fairly interesting severe setup. Monday looks especially concerning, with perhaps the greatest severe risk since Early April.
 
1000079462.gif
Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...

A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S.
upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper
Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough
will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of
50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern
Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east
across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across
the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and
overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from
northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX.

Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing
southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface
features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK
northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI.
Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will
support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be
centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into
southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is
expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening.

With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX,
convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe
thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the
southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent
will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time
overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent
outlooks if trends suggest capping
will be less of a hindrance.
 
US_Highway15 said:
View attachment 40243
Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...

A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S.
upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper
Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough
will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of
50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern
Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east
across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across
the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and
overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from
northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX.

Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing
southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface
features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK
northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI.
Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will
support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be
centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into
southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is
expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening.

With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX,
convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe
thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the
southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent
will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time
overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent
outlooks if trends suggest capping
will be less of a hindrance.
Click to expand...

That’s a good write up by Liz, lays out the target area and what May change the forecast in the future (capping down south).
 
US_Highway15 said:
View attachment 40243
Day 5/Mon - Southern Plains to Upper Midwest...

A shortwave trough embedded within the larger-scale western U.S.
upper trough will eject from the central Rockies to the Upper
Midwest on Monday. The southern branch of the western upper trough
will stall over the Four Corners vicinity, but a broad swath of
50-80 kt 500 mb southwesterly flow will extend from the southern
Plains to the upper Great Lakes. A surface low will shift east
across the Upper MS Valley, with a trailing cold front moving across
the northern/central Plains into WI/IA during the afternoon and
overnight hours. A dryline also will extend southwest from
northeast/central KS into western OK/northwest TX.

Rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward on increasing
southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned surface
features. Moderate to strong destabilization is forecast from OK
northeast into IA and adjacent parts of southern MN/southwest WI.
Supercell wind profiles amid this very moist/unstable airmass will
support an all-hazards severe risk. The greatest risk should be
centered on IA and adjacent areas from extreme northeast KS into
southeast MN/southwest WI, where an intense low-level jet is
expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening.

With southwest extent across eastern KS into OK, and northwest TX,
convective coverage is less certain as capping my limit severe
thunderstorm development. Current model trends hanging back the
southern branch of the upper trough also suggests large-scale ascent
will be weaker across the region, resulting in a more difficult time
overcoming capping. Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent
outlooks if trends suggest capping
will be less of a hindrance.
Click to expand...
Forgive me if I am wrong but, are they already mentioning a MDT if capping sorts itself out?
 
AJS said:
I haven’t had a lot of time to look at models, but all I know is that a 30% severe probability this far out has my full attention.
Click to expand...
Same, if shear and helicity increase by any notable margin and we have confidence in the storm mode, then a significant day is what we could be looking at.

Heck I remember 2 days ago when I said "still a lot of questions to be answered before I call this a significant setup" but now, I genuinely only have 1 question. Will the helicity and shear increase? Because the CAPE is there, lapse rates look decent, supercell composite is consistantly in the 5-11 range, hodographs are well rounded, and moisture looks ok aswell. Helicity and shear are the only things that need to increase before I really start digging into this setup.
 
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