• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2024

CheeselandSkies said:
Add to that, it being at the tail end of its range but the NAM went rather bonkers with the EHI/SCP over northern Illinois on Monday. CAPE so fat it's gonna need to call Dr. Nowzaradan in Houston:

View attachment 29430
Click to expand...
We now return to My 5000 Pound CAPE.
Dr. Nowzaradan: "How did this start?"
Atmosphere: "Well, I like to consume huge amounts of rich moisture and energy. I've been consuming energy my whole life."
 
I have contacted the North Platte NWS office through email regarding the damage survey and the lack of a public statement regarding the June 25th. I'll hopefully get a response and will share it once I do so, because I feel like people should deserve to know what happened. If there has been a statement made by them already, please let me know since I haven't seen it myself.
 
With the Elkhorn tornado possibly being upgraded to EF4, I wonder if they'll do the same re-analysis for other similar outbreaks this year.
 
There is a low-end risk for storms today across the Midwest, Ohio Valley and parts of the South today.
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the northern/central Plains this afternoon and evening, and also
over portions of the Midwest and Lower Ohio Valley mainly this
evening through the early overnight hours.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Various 12Z observed soundings across the northern/central High
Plains show shallow/limited low-level moisture in the wake of prior
convection and a weak front, with PWAT values generally less than 1
inch. Still, sufficient moisture to support weak to moderate
instability should be in place through this afternoon along/east of
a weak surface trough near the border of ND/SD and MT/WY.
Large-scale ascent should remain fairly modest in a mostly zonal
mid/upper-level westerly flow regime, with a low-amplitude mid-level
shortwave trough over southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba and ND expected
to move eastward through the period. Another weak mid-level
perturbation evident on water vapor satellite imagery late this
morning should also move eastward from the northern Rockies across
the adjacent High Plains through this evening. Both of these
features should aid isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing
across parts of ND/SD and western NE by late afternoon, generally
along/east of the weak surface trough.

Modest low-level flow is expected to veer to westerly and gradually
strengthen with height to around 30-40 kt through mid levels.
Similar values of deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts,
including the potential for a few supercells. Large hail generally
1-2 inches in diameter will be possible with any sustained, discrete
convection through the early evening. With a long, generally
straight hodograph forecast at mid/upper levels, splitting
supercells may occur. Still, overall coverage of intense
thunderstorms remains somewhat uncertain given the modest
large-scale ascent. The potential for convection to grow upscale
this evening into one or more bowing clusters also appears rather
uncertain given the weak low-level mass response forecast. If a
cluster can develop, then severe/damaging winds, with some
potentially up to 75 mph given rather steep low/mid-level lapse
rates, would become a greater threat with time through the evening
hours across central/eastern ND/SD and northern NE. An isolated
severe wind threat may persist with eastward extent into southern MN
and IA tonight with any cluster that can persist along an axis of
greater instability.

...Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley/Southeast...
A large area of convection from an earlier MCS across the Midwest
has devolved into an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
late this morning across the lower OH Valley vicinity. Extensive
outflow from this activity has surged southward to the Ozarks to
parts of western KY based on recent visible satellite and radar
imagery. But, airmass recovery is already well underway across parts
of central MO, with southwesterly surface/low-level winds advecting
a very moist airmass northward towards the mid MS Valley and western
portions of the Midwest/OH Valley. Convective evolution across these
areas later today into tonight remains rather uncertain given the
early-day convection. Even so, most guidance continues to remain
insistent that a moderately to strongly unstable environment will
become re-established across parts of eastern MO into
southern/central IL/IN by early evening. If this destabilization can
occur, then potential for intense thunderstorms, including
supercells, and a bowing cluster could be realized.

Forcing for ascent for this robust convection will likely be tied to
southwesterly low-level warm/moist advection, and a mid-level
vorticity maximum forecast to move eastward from WI/IL to the Great
Lakes region. Sufficiently strong northwesterly mid/upper-level flow
and veering winds through the column will support generally 25-35 kt
of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. It appears possible
that initial supercells with an isolated large hail threat may
quickly transition to a linear cluster with greater severe/damaging
wind potential with time this evening/tonight across the lower OH
Valley and vicinity. Sufficient low-level shear should also be
present to support some threat for a couple of tornadoes with any
semi-discrete thunderstorms, although the mode may quickly become
messy this evening with multiple mergers/interactions. Given the
continued uncertainty in convective evolution later today into
tonight, only small expansions have been made to the Slight Risk
across this region. A broader area of isolated strong to damaging
wind potential remains apparent across parts of the TN Valley into
the Southeast, where moderate to strong instability and marginal
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters spreading
generally southeastward this afternoon/evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Modestly enhanced northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will overspread
parts of the eastern Mid-Atlantic and Delmarva Peninsula on the
western periphery of a mid-level cyclone that will continue to
advance northward across New England today. As the boundary layer
across this region warms and becomes weakly to moderately unstable,
a few strong thunderstorms could develop within this regime during
the afternoon. Locally moderate instability and effective shear
around 30-35 kt should support some potential for isolated damaging
gusts and marginally severe hail with the more robust cores.

..Gleason/Moore.. 07/29/2024
Click to expand...
1722270975633.png
 
Intense thunderstorms moving out of TN into AL/GA. SPC also says WW unlikely, but notes intensity and organization bears watching.
Mesoscale Discussion 1726
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Areas affected...Lower middle Tennessee into northeast Alabama and
northern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 291938Z - 292145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging wind potential may materialize in
the next few hours across lower middle Tennessee into northeast
Alabama and northwest Georgia. Watch issuance is not currently
anticipated given an overall modest kinematic environment.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of poorly organized convection - driven by
the remnant outflow of an early-morning MCS across the lower OH
River Valley - has been percolating for much of the late
morning/early afternoon hours. Over the past 30-60 minutes, regional
reflectivity and velocity data has shown some tendency for
consolidating outflows and the development of a more coherent cold
pool to the south of the Nashville, TN area. This may be the start
of a loosely organized convective line that should propagate to the
southeast into parts of northeast AL and northern GA in the coming
hours along a diffuse buoyancy gradient. This cluster is currently
on the periphery of stronger flow aloft, but the KHPX and KOHX VWPs
are sampling 25-30 knot winds between 5-6 km, which may be
sufficient for similar effective bulk shear values given weak
low-level flow. These mid-level winds are expected to spread
southeast in tandem with the developing line, which may promote some
degree of organization and longevity of the line. Consequently, the
potential for damaging wind may increase in the next few hours if a
coherent line can become organized.

..Moore/Gleason.. 07/29/2024
Click to expand...

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1726

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
KHTX_loop.gif
 
Oops… somehow I think my email notifications got turned off for this thread lol

With hurricane season expected to (finally?) pick up in early August, I am wondering if there is a thread for hurricanes like there is for svr? I have not been able to find one

EDIT: Nmd.. found it
 
KevinH said:
What ring of fire?
Click to expand...
It’s called the “ring of fire” when there’s a high pressure system situated over the Rockies that deflects the jet streak to the north, which causes it to dip back over to the more Midwest/eastern side of the country, which has a tendency to generate MCS/derecho events in mid/late summer for those areas.
 
slenker said:
It’s called the “ring of fire” when there’s a high pressure system situated over the Rockies that deflects the jet streak to the north, which causes it to dip back over to the more Midwest/eastern side of the country, which has a tendency to generate MCS/derecho events in mid/late summer for those areas.
Click to expand...
I did not know that. The only ROF I knew of was in the Pacific Ocean lol

Thanks.
 
More nasty storms inbound to AL/GA via TN. These could remain rather organized in the presence of modest shear and strong instability. Cold pool interaction could influence the propagation of activity. Damaging winds the main threat, but there is a low-end tornado threat for parts of TN NW into the Midwest.
KOHX_loop.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top