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Severe Weather 2024

There is a linkage between active Spring tornado seasons corresponding with active Atlantic hurricane seasons. I've made a spreadsheet showing it.
 
Kds86z said:
Warm gulf?
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Well I didn't include any maps just the total tornado count by year and the Atlantic totals during those years. But yes that is at least one of the reasons.
 
Look at SPC Go! I love it!
 
In reading about the SPC updating Day 3 twice starting August 20th, it doesn't sound like they will make any current adjustments to the probabilities etc. Meaning you'll still get Day 3 Moderate and Day 2 Moderate/High.
 
With the two on 7/15 bringing us to 42, we've now edged out 2021 as the busiest tornado year for Wisconsin out of the last 11. Still behind 2010 with 46, and 2005's record of 62 is probably safe barring a surprise August outbreak (which is also what put that year so far ahead of everything else).

Still haven't had one rated EF3+, though and the longest track by far was Evansville-Lake Koshkonong on, go figure, February 8th.
 
GFS has been teasing the next possible uptick in severe potential for the Midwest for the end of the month for a while now. Modest to moderate WNW to NW 500mb flow over 70s dewpoints. Signal is still there as of today's 12Z run, but it's still 7-8 days out so obviously much TBD regarding timing, location, mode and ceiling of threat.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
GFS has been teasing the next possible uptick in severe potential for the Midwest for the end of the month for a while now. Modest to moderate WNW to NW 500mb flow over 70s dewpoints. Signal is still there as of today's 12Z run, but it's still 7-8 days out so obviously much TBD regarding timing, location, mode and ceiling of threat.
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SPC starting to come on board this morning:

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Tue Jul 23 2024

Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging will spread across parts of the Plains and eastern
states, while the subtropical high develops westward over the
southern tier of the U.S. during the Day 4-8/Fri-Tue period. This
will suppress severe thunderstorm potential for much of the CONUS.
The exception will be a potentially more active period for parts of
the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest due to a series of upper
shortwave troughs migrating across the Canadian Prairies and parts
of the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through the forecast period.
Click to expand...
 
andyhb said:
View attachment 29413

Very obvious rotation within the plume of the intense Park Fire in Butte County California right now. Would not be surprised to see a fire-generated tornado out of this.
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That area is just south of Oroville, which seems to be a mini 'tornado magnet' in itself. The area was hit by three (supercellular) tornadoes including an EF2 in 2011, and an EF1 in December of last year.
 
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