Severe Weather 2024

[TornadoFan]

Pretty sure I saw a gustnado on the way back to 70

 

[TornadoFan]

All in all, today was a pretty good day.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Models have vacillated a bit on tomorrow's ceiling around my neck of the woods, but the 00Z HRRR came in pretty hot. Winds quite strong across all levels especially for late June, with decent directional shear as well. Sim reflectivity has supercells in Iowa congealing into an MCS as it reaches WI (typical), but if the shear is anything like this it could remain pretty intense.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Actually, multiple 0Z CAMs with a rather potent look for tomorrow. SPC may need to upgrade things a bit if this holds.

 

[TornadoFan]

Thanks for the likes on my photos from yesterday everyone. That was my first time driving 100+ miles to chase storms.

 

[Kds86z]

https://www.axios.com/local/columbus/2024/06/21/ohio-tornado-alley-tornadoes-record

 

[CheeselandSkies]

HRRR seems to keep trending toward a more discrete storm mode this afternoon/evening with each run, now bringing multiple discrete cells with strong UH streaks into southern Wisconsin as well as north-central to northeastern Iowa.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[warneagle]

First day 2 10% TOR in New England ever

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[lake.effect]

I called this a few days ago on this thread with the incompetent SPC was still holding onto a Marginal Risk.

Anyway, tomorrow looks very interesting from NYC to Boston and Central New England. CAMs fire discreet cells over New Jersey and move them towards the NYC area by the late evening hours. I actually think the Central Mass / Connecticut / Albany area have the best parameters. Should be an interesting day. Definitely watching it.

 

[lake.effect]

This would be problematic...

 

[Clancy]

15Z SREF has a bullseye roughly ovr Adams, MA tomorrow evening. Could certainly be an active day for New England.

 

[Kds86z]

View attachment 28777

I called this a few days ago on this thread with the incompetent SPC was still holding onto a Marginal Risk.

Anyway, tomorrow looks very interesting from NYC to Boston and Central New England. CAMs fire discreet cells over New Jersey and move them towards the NYC area by the late evening hours. I actually think the Central Mass / Connecticut / Albany area have the best parameters. Should be an interesting day. Definitely watching it.

You did call it! I forgot who pointed this out

 

[atrainguy]

Getting inclement in MI too. New tornado warning..

 

[lake.effect]

Cherry picked a few PDR TOR soundings from the 18Z NAM for tomorrow in Southern NH / Northern MA. Bullseye right around Manchester.
They don't appear to be contaminated.

Although the NAM tends to be more bullish on PDS TOR soundings, it is quite remarkable to see that in this part of the country.

Edit: NYC metro would definitely be in the TOR risk area tomorrow if the most recent cams are correct. NAM depicts a line of discrete/semi-discrete rotating supercells from Philadelphia to Bridgeport, CT tomorrow evening.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[atrainguy]

 

[locomusic01]

Well damn, figures it'd happen on a day when I have a huge amount of work I can't get out of. Not exactly ideal chase territory anyway, but it would've been worth a couple hours' drive to see what happens.

 

[andyhb]

The biggest issue with tomorrow's severe weather setup in the Northeast is the lack of better mid level lapse rates (better EML), which is a strong delineator between higher end severe events there and run-of-the-mill days.