Severe Weather 2024

[MichelleH]

We still have May to go through. While April is usually the top tornado producing month, there have some outbreaks in May, such as May 27, 1973.

 

[JPWX]

May 2010 and 2011 come to mind with late season Mid-South outbreaks. Plus the big Nashville, Tennessee Flash Flood Event too in May 2010.

North MS has had 93 tornadoes total in May (3rd highest Spring month behind March and April)

 

[Clancy]

We still have May to go through. While April is usually the top tornado producing month, there have some outbreaks in May, such as May 27, 1973.

We also had a fairly prolific outbreak in 2008 around Mother's Day.

Tornado outbreak sequence of May 7–11, 2008 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

My thought process is always after may 10, it's over.

 

[lake.effect]

Are we burned out from lackluster events yet?
Because D8-D12 look pretty interesting on the globals.
But I'm not getting my hopes up.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

My thought process is always after may 10, it's over.

Yeah, Mid-May most of the time signals the end of big time threats for Dixie proper, and more to the plains. Don’t want to spike the football too early though on this year. We had 3 very active years in a row, this just may be one of those below average years.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Are we burned out from lackluster events yet?
Because D8-D12 look pretty interesting on the globals.
But I'm not getting my hopes up.

2024 Formula:

D6+ = looking really good
MidRange = downtrend, strife, and discourse
CAM Range = maybe? I don’t know? If something does manage to go up, it could be an interesting tornado day
Day Of: Wtf? Or: tornados popping up outside the predicted threat area

Rinse, repeat

 

[Clancy]

Yeah, Mid-May most of the time signals the end of big time threats for Dixie proper, and more to the plains. Don’t want to spike the football too early though on this year. We had 3 very active years in a row, this just may be one of those below average years.

After last year's late spring/summer severe weather bonanza, I'm definitely not writing off any late-season surprises. That said, this has been just generally a pretty weird year.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

After last year's late spring/summer severe weather bonanza, I'm definitely not writing off any late-season surprises. That said, this has been just generally a pretty weird year.

Absolutely. Don’t want to minimize anything, but the only event that’s really stood out in my mind this year was the March 14th Ohio Surprise. Which came out of nowhere basically.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JPWX]

This happened June 11 last year. A brief tornado in southern Itawamba County. So I'm definitely not writing anything off

 

[Clancy]

This happened June 11 last year. A brief tornado in southern Itawamba County. So I'm definitely not writing anything off

That's a notch and a half on velocity.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Absolutely. Don’t want to minimize anything, but the only event that’s really stood out in my mind this year was the March 14th Ohio Surprise. Which came out of nowhere basically.

Don't forget the record-breaking February 8th Wisconsin tornadoes which included a long-track EF2 when the dewpoint was like 47. After that I thought it was gonna be a year of overperformers. So much for that theory.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Don't forget the record-breaking February 8th Wisconsin tornadoes which included a long-track EF2 when the dewpoint was like 47. After that I thought it was gonna be a year of overperformers. So much for that theory.

Can’t believe I forgot that one - I didn’t realize the dew point was that low for the long track EF2 either.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Can’t believe I forgot that one - I didn’t realize the dew point was that low for the long track EF2 either.

Yup. Didn't even reach 50 which is one of the reasons I didn't chase that day. It would have been about a 25-minute drive from my apartment.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Could severe weather be saving itself for hurricane season?

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Could severe weather be saving itself for hurricane season?

*some* models posted on another board are showing a possible record strong La Niña coming up fall/winter. On par with 73.

In all honesty and this may be unpopular, I have felt like the 2024 tornado season was just going to be a sideshow or pregame for some potentially big stuff in 2025. I’ve mentioned his season prediction video ad nauseam, but all of Trey’s analogs for the 2024 season (2010, 1998, and 1973) were all pre-year precursors for some loaded red letter and infamous years.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

*some* models posted on another board are showing a possible record strong La Niña coming up fall/winter. On par with 73.

In all honesty and this may be unpopular, I have felt like the 2024 tornado season was just going to be a sideshow or pregame for some potentially big stuff in 2025. I’ve mentioned his season prediction video ad nauseam, but all of Trey’s analogs for the 2024 season (2010, 1998, and 1973) were all pre-year precursors for some loaded red letter and infamous years.

Yeah we should have our hands full next spring with the strength of the Niña . Particular following a Nino …. This up coming fall May even big more active
Than usual

 

[JPWX]

Yeah we should have our hands full next spring with the strength of the Niña . Particular following a Nino …. This up coming fall May even big more active
Than usual

Very true.

 

[MichelleH]

Severe t'storm warning Cullman County.