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Severe Weather 2024

Heads up headed towards the 15th to 20th timeframe. More heavy rain/flash flood potential. Given that the ground will still be very saturated from this current event, it won't take much to cause significant or major flash flooding issues once again. Severe weather potential too, but we'll deal with that when it comes.
 

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Clancy said:
Welcome! Coming from a mere hobbyist, those model hazard modes are algorithmically-driven and as such they can definitely have their moments. When a sounding is contaminated by the presence of convection, usually a thunderstorm, it distorts the presentation of the atmosphere in that location, causing it to present differently from the actual environment. In these cases, since the environment on the modelled sounding is "off" from what is expected in the ambient atmosphere surrounding a tornadic supercell, it'll give off a marginal hazard type.
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Thanks!

Follow up question - why not change/correct the algorithm of the models to remove these anomalies?
 
lake.effect said:
Thanks!

Follow up question - why not change/correct the algorithm of the models to remove these anomalies?
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While I don't work with them myself, I can only imagine that it may cause a lot of issues to try to augment them for this particular issue. Ultimately, the possible hazard type labels are indeed merely approximations, and are there to give some basic context to the state of the overall atmosphere.
 
2024 Severe Weather Stats thus far:

Tornado Count (Preliminary): 260 (thru April 10th). The closest other year's to current count wise is 2020 (277) and 2011 (320)
January TOR Count: 45 (same total as 2018)
February TOR Count: 52 (close to total of 55 in 2023)
March TOR Count: 66 (closest total year was 75 in 2011)
April TOR Count: 97 (closest other year is 107 in 2017)
 
00z, 6z, and 12z GEFS SCP now thru April 27th. Main Takeaway: active and stormy. BTW hoping that we can avoid a threat on the 27th not just because of the anniversary but because I'm getting my street naming dedication ceremony on that day at 10am in Smithville, MS.
 

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JPWX said:
00z, 6z, and 12z GEFS SCP now thru April 27th. Main Takeaway: active and stormy. BTW hoping that we can avoid a threat on the 27th not just because of the anniversary but because I'm getting my street naming dedication ceremony on that day at 10am in Smithville, MS.
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It looks like we might break out of the drought we're in. We mainly have to watch for hailstorms and the one that came through the other night, but just between our town and the town south.

I always think of that tornado on April 27
 
18z GEFS SCP thru 18z April 27th
 

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CheeselandSkies said:
Not sure I buy this yet...seen other sources saying high latitude blocking and a return to a colder pattern for the eastern/central US looks more likely for most of that period.
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That is where my money is.

That thinking keeps in line with Trey & Reed’s (mainly Trey since reed is a hype machine) tornado season prediction videos. Very late start with a more active plains late-season in May. Which has proven true so far. Who knows though, we may end up with a very quiet year all around or May/June May be above average.
 
Clancy said:
For those curious about the rest of April.
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From the southern Plains to Dixie Alley it should say. I've heard that too @CheeselandSkies but to me "cold air" if any would be mostly confined to the Northeast U.S. That area of below normal anomalies over the Deep South I don't buy. If anything It's gonna get warm over the Eastern US. That western trough is just asking for trouble
 
JPWX said:
From the southern Plains to Dixie Alley it should say. I've heard that too @CheeselandSkies but to me "cold air" if any would be mostly confined to the Northeast U.S. That area of below normal anomalies over the Deep South I don't buy. If anything It's gonna get warm over the Eastern US. That western trough is just asking for trouble
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Hopefully things will get
More active as trough looks build west by end this month per ensembles mostly … I got have least one chase day.before season ends
 
Is there any sign that Dixie is still in play any more this spring? I don't see anything on the long range models I'm looking at, but I'm not the best at interpreting them.
 
MattW said:
Is there any sign that Dixie is still in play any more this spring? I don't see anything on the long range models I'm looking at, but I'm not the best at interpreting them.
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I would hate to write off severe weather for the south on April 18th…. But I start to wonder that…. Just been a strange severe weather season to me .
 
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