Severe Weather 2024

[JPWX]

6z GEFS next weekend

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Well if we were to have one it would be on my 30th Birthday weekend. My birthday is April 28th. To be honest, that's the most aggressive I've seen in a good while over MS. O boy. (And no I did not send out a birthday invitation to damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail)

Man. Can't believe you are turning 30. Still think of you as that high school kid in What Stands in a Storm. Happy early birthday, sir!

Also, don't think I knew before that the Smithville tornado was one day before your birthday.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Based on the GFS, SPC's area for Friday goes too far north; and their description for Saturday makes little sense to me as that looks more like a central Plains threat. They could be basing it off the 0Z Euro which has the warm sector further north for Friday's setup.

 

[JPWX]

Man. Can't believe you are turning 30. Still think of you as that high school kid in What Stands in a Storm. Happy early birthday, sir!

Also, don't think I knew before that the Smithville tornado was one day before your birthday.

Yep. I was 16 years old at the time would be turning 17 the next day. The one thing I remember most in the days after is the kind people of our EMA and MEMA gave me a cake. Got a MEMA jacket and cap too. (and thank you for the birthday wishes) I appreciate it. To this day, I still remember everything.

 

[atrainguy]

Got two enhanced days in a row in the Plains, today and tomorrow. Low tornado risk, but still. Pretty high risk for big hail and wind

 

[Clancy]

Tornado Watch out for parts of NE and IA.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern and Western Iowa
Eastern Nebraska

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over
eastern Nebraska and track eastward across the watch area through
the evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Lincoln
NE to 35 miles east of Knoxville IA. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 163

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Clancy]

Sure seems like the busy streak looks to continue, from the Plains down through the South.

 

[WesL]

I've moved all the April 27 - May 1 posts to a dedicated thread.

Severe WX - Historic April 27-May 1 2024 Midwest Storms

*sounds of me shaking the cage in which I live*

talkweather.com

 

[Fred Gossage]

I imagine there will probably be a rather large area highlighted for Monday on the forthcoming Day 4-8 outlook, and it may not take long for them to go up to 30% if they don't do it right out of the gate this morning. Major model agreement on a synoptically evident large-scale significant tornado setup Monday afternoon and evening on the classic Great Plains. Central and eastern Kansas down through a large part of Oklahoma look especially dangerous if something that's even a shadow of the current model consensus holds all the way to go-time.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Sure seems like the busy streak looks to continue, from the Plains down through the South.
View attachment 26115View attachment 26114

Unless ridging in place to the east weakens, not sure if mid south tennessee valley or even Dixie regions get in on another severe setup….. may can be tricky month for the mentioned areas….

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Unless ridging in place to the east weakens, not sure if mid south tennessee valley or even Dixie regions get in on another severe setup….. may can be tricky month for the mentioned areas….

Looking way ahead of things , with a raging La Niña still expected moving forward, this coming fall and winter could be extremely active

 

[Casuarina Head]

I imagine there will probably be a rather large area highlighted for Monday on the forthcoming Day 4-8 outlook, and it may not take long for them to go up to 30% if they don't do it right out of the gate this morning. Major model agreement on a synoptically evident large-scale significant tornado setup Monday afternoon and evening on the classic Great Plains. Central and eastern Kansas down through a large part of Oklahoma look especially dangerous if something that's even a shadow of the current model consensus holds all the way to go-time.

@Fred Gossage Will this upcoming event have more potential than the recent big outbreak to produce multiple EF4+ events? I don’t really trust long-range forecasts that call for upper-tier events on a particular day. If anything the biggest recent events have tended to defy the models, to varying degrees, either in terms of magnitude or placement. April 26 exceeded expectations, while April 27 was rather subdued until late in the game. Their respective D1 outlooks did verify in the end, but in the latter case more toward the edges/peripheries than the centre.

Looking way ahead of things , with a raging La Niña still expected moving forward, this coming fall and winter could be extremely active

Climatology has not really been as useful recently as it was in the past. Maybe the rest of the year will, like 26–7 Apr, make up for the events that underperformed.

 

[Clancy]

GFS and CFS both depicting potential for severe storms across the lower Plains and the South well into May. CIPS corroborates.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

@Fred Gossage Will this upcoming event have more potential than the recent big outbreak to produce multiple EF4+ events? I don’t really trust long-range forecasts that call for upper-tier events on a particular day. If anything the biggest recent events have tended to defy the models, to varying degrees, either in terms of magnitude or placement. April 26 exceeded expectations, while April 27 was rather subdued until late in the game. Their respective D1 outlooks did verify in the end, but in the latter case more toward the edges/peripheries than the centre.