I'm definitely not a long range tornado expert and I'm geared towards hurricanes/tropical system long range forecasting because that's an easier linkage with ENSO etc. Severe weather and tornadoes are much more difficult to forecast well in advance.
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Yeah looking at medium n longer range , could get pretty interesting …. Spc agrees on their 4 to 8 day outlook they have this morning … with a day 7 alreadyModel guidance has a strong signal for a system capable of severe weather Thursday, April 25th - Sunday, April 28th. The threat looks most likely in the Plains, Midwest, and Mid South regions.
It’s felt strange to me too. Can’t remember a year that’s been as boring and just…blah as it has this year.I would hate to write off severe weather for the south on April 18th…. But I start to wonder that…. Just been a strange severe weather season to me .
Model guidance has a strong signal for a system capable of severe weather Thursday, April 25th - Sunday, April 28th. The threat looks most likely in the Plains, Midwest, and Mid South regions.
2018 easily beats this year in terms of being fortunately boring so far.It’s felt strange to me too. Can’t remember a year that’s been as boring and just…blah as it has this year.
Things that make you go hmm.
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Model guidance has a strong signal for a system capable of severe weather Thursday, April 25th - Sunday, April 28th. The threat looks most likely in the Plains, Midwest, and Mid South regions.
Kinda hard to ignore this signal 2 runs in a row so far. Look at that date as well. Time will tell as we've all seen this Spring.
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It's still early, but model consensus is pretty strong. April 25th-29th look to be the most active severe days of 2024.View attachment 25492View attachment 25493
Yet another multi day severe weather threat, I’d be more concerned about these. Parameters such as lapse rates and deep layer moisture are naturally much more significant in late April into May.
The subtropical jet becomes weaker and move’s more poleward during the late spring and onwards and won’t be restricting upper level moisture returns, and instead will aid in those.
And of course the tropopause rises as well during this time period, which allows for deeper convection and colder cloud tops. Rising air parcels have a lot more breathing room with a naturally higher Equilibrium layer.
Well if we were to have one it would be on my 30th Birthday weekend. My birthday is April 28th. To be honest, that's the most aggressive I've seen in a good while over MS. O boy. (And no I did not send out a birthday invitation to damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail)00Z GEFS ....not deterministic models. Time to start paying attention towards next weekend.
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