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Severe Weather 2024

CIPS PWAT and 72 hour precip dataset
 

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18z GFS CWASP. At face value, it's hinting at a multi-day severe weather event.
 

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JPWX said:
18z GFS CWASP. At face value, it's hinting at a multi-day severe weather event.
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Some of the more impressive values I've seen this year, though of course only time will tell how potent it'll actually be. But yeah, verbatim it looks pretty substantial.
 
Clancy said:
Some of the more impressive values I've seen this year, though of course only time will tell how potent it'll actually be. But yeah, verbatim it looks pretty substantial.
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Right. Either way though heavy rain/flash flooding looks like the primary concern for the time being.
 
It seems that low will occlude and break off over the Southwestern states like the GFS and Euro are depicting on the 500mb.....it has consistently been depicted run to run.
I still have a lot of uncertainty of how it will interact with that subtropical jet and eject.

Somebody with meteorology knowledge help me understand.
 
Modelling has trended wind fields away from a more robust tornado threat, although there would nevertheless be a risk for damaging winds and hail in this scenario (sounding SE of BMX).
gfs_2024031106_111_32.75--86.25.png
 
Clancy said:
All this rain will also make damaging winds more dangerous by way of trees.
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Good to know we’re not the only ones who have been getting dumped on. This was along the channel in DC on Sunday (that railing is not supposed to be in the water). Last thing we need is another big rain event.
 

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warneagle said:
Good to know we’re not the only ones who have been getting dumped on. This was along the channel in DC on Sunday (that railing is not supposed to be in the water). Last thing we need is another big rain event.
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Well at least those geese seem to be enjoying the bountiful rains.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
NAM came in rather hot for the Midwest on Thursday...

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
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18Z held serve and even upped the ante a little bit with the surface thermos, although I think the 12Z looked slightly better at 500mb. Not really sold on this solution yet but certainly something to keep an eye on.

NWS Quad Cities not really sold, don't even mention the NAM solutions in their afternoon AFD. Just hail potential Wednesday night and mainly a rainfall event for Thursday.
 
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18z GFS CWASP and Precipitation Output
 

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I read on Twitter about the Nam and gfs slowing the system and more amplified with recent runs. Dry air punching in as well with mid level jet and low level jet increasing. Would that increase the tornado threat?
 
Mrgolfman7070 said:
I read on Twitter about the Nam and gfs slowing the system and more amplified with recent runs. Dry air punching in as well with mid level jet and low level jet increasing. Would that increase the tornado threat?
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Yes that would especially the NAM solutions I mentioned above. Still need to see a few more runs consistent with that idea before sounding the alarm.

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