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Severe Weather 2024

Clancy said:
March 3rd, that was a spooky day for us in the Atlanta metro.
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We were incredibly lucky to not have a major tornado outbreak during that time frame. The wording from the NWS of Fayetteville a day or two prior in this event was some of the worst I've ever seen personally.

I'm really scared that the warm sector will continue to improve as we move closer. I checked the theta e values on the 18z GFS and there is a lot of room for instability to rise. Theta e is very high for the winter.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
We were incredibly lucky to not have a major tornado outbreak during that time frame. The wording from the NWS of Fayetteville a day or two prior in this event was some of the worst I've ever seen personally.

I'm really scared that the warm sector will continue to improve as we move closer. I checked the theta e values on the 18z GFS and there is a lot of room for instability to rise. Theta e is very high for the winter.
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January events are weird, sometimes they can go way above and beyond (like the one from January of 2017). Definitely not liking the look of this one so far, although things could change a lot between now and next week. Instability still looks on the low end taking the models literally, but for a lot of the winter events the globals (and the NAM, for that matter) just don't seem to key in well on things in that ballpark for some reason.
 
Clancy said:
January events are weird, sometimes they can go way above and beyond (like the one from January of 2017). Definitely not liking the look of this one so far, although things could change a lot between now and next week. Instability still looks on the low end taking the models literally, but for a lot of the winter events the globals (and the NAM, for that matter) just don't seem to key in well on things in that ballpark for some reason.
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Oh yeah definitely, look at the 70s dewpoints though in the gulf. With a cranking long wave trough. Yikes the multiple low pressures systems that move through have really primed the gulf. Screenshot_2024-01-01-19-08-29-08_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Oh yeah definitely, look at the 70s dewpoints though in the gulf. With a cranking long wave trough. Yikes the multiple low pressures systems that move through have really primed the gulf.
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Oh dang, yeah I didn't notice how much deep moisture that preceding front pulls in.
 
Not to mention the fact it wouldn't take much to get that low 70 dewpoint air funneled northward. Plus looks to me upon looking at the 18z GFS the warm front associated with the storm system is pretty far north which would put a widespread area of the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley at risk.
 
18z GFS Storm Relative Helicity and Bunkers Storm Motion next Tuesday.
 

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Clancy said:
That SRH is nuts.
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Yeah it is but did you see the SRH values on the 12z GFS?! You might rethink nuts when you see the 12z values.
www.pivotalweather.com

Models: GFS - Pivotal Weather

View GFS weather model forecast map image for Storm Relative Helicity (SRH): 0-3 km AGL in Southeast US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
 
JPWX said:
Yeah it is but did you see the SRH values on the 12z GFS?! You might rethink nuts when you see the 12z values.
www.pivotalweather.com

Models: GFS - Pivotal Weather

View GFS weather model forecast map image for Storm Relative Helicity (SRH): 0-3 km AGL in Southeast US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
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I wasn’t impressed by the soundings I pulled.

Then again, I may not have pulled from the right areas lol
 
Clancy said:
00Z GFS has ticked up the instability a bit over AL and GA.
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No Way GIF
 
The mid level lapse rates look good with 600mb temperatures below 0 degree celsius and with the immense shear in the warm sector this is a naughty environment. However, how far the warm front moves inland appears largely in question. I’ve noticed operational guidance keep it rather constrained near the I-10 corridor, but also the GFS and its ensembles of recent have become more aggressive. There’s a lot of elevated instability with this system so I vision that will play a role in the frontal progression as will many other things. Models look favored for a risk in Texas on Monday and a transition overnight through LA, south MS, south AL, north Florida, and south GA into Tuesday.
 
The freaking supercell composite and EHI are absurdly high and we are not even in the mesoscale models.

This has big boy event potential.

Ehi of 7 in south Mississippi and south Alabama in January lol what? Your lucky to even get that in spring lol.

Gfs goes from nothing in instability to over 1000j on the 06z for south Miss and Alabama.

It would be more preferable if the low moved a bit more northwest if you want a major major event for your usual suspects
 
I know this isn't a direct forecast preclude to outbreaks but whenever I see this just on mesoscale models alone. I know a outbreak of supercells is possible and usually a tornado event is associated. This is the highest I have ever seen in my time of looking of about 10 years personally of seeing this high of values in January for Alabama. I mean this is ridiculous.

Whenever I see these bright pinks coming in, that's very bad news. We are still a ways out, but WOW. I'm going to save these in a bookmark like the march 3rd event.

Screenshot_2024-01-02-06-06-22-98_f9ee0578fe1cc94de7482bd41accb329.jpg
 
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