Severe Weather 2024

[JPWX]

SPC:
The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate
through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but
the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the
lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is
where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level
short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better
low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support
renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if
not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells,
and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through
the evening before weakening overnight.

 

[JPWX]

I do believe this will end up being a bigger deal.

 

[MichelleH]

I do believe this will end up being a bigger deal.

Yeah, tend to agree. They went from well, not sure, blah blah, wall of text saying why we're not sure to -

"but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the
lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night."

We're not that far from April now. I wonder if this event will be the start of one after the other for a while? I hope not, but it is spring in Dixie. Hope you still get to go to the symposium!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

SPC:
The deep, but perhaps weakening cyclone, is then forecast to migrate
through the lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest on Monday, but
the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the
lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night. This is
where forcing near a secondary frontal wave, as a trailing mid-level
short wave emerges from the Southwest, may interact with better
low-level moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico and support
renewed vigorous thunderstorm development. By Monday evening, if
not earlier, this probably will again include a risk for supercells,
and a developing squall line, which may maintain strength through
the evening before weakening overnight.

I've seen this before somewhere.... Lol

 

[Gail]

Speaking of April, I sure hope there are no tornadoes during the total solar eclipse on April 8th.

Right? I took a gamble and bought 50 pairs of glasses for my daughter’s classes (they have shared teachers with two groups of students and swap half-day). They’ll all be disappointed if they can’t watch the eclipse.

 

[Clancy]

Last several runs of the GFS show a compact but not-insignificant threat for parts of MS and western AL.

 

[KevinH]

I didn’t do it….. Yes I did lol

SVR WX threat March 24th-25th 2024

SPC has highlighted these days with risk areas. People on the main 2024 thread also seem to think there is potential for this event to be a bigger dal than currently anticipated. Discuss…. lol

talkweather.com

 

[JPWX]

Yeah, tend to agree. They went from well, not sure, blah blah, wall of text saying why we're not sure to -

"but the primary severe weather potential seems likely to shift into the
lower Mississippi Valley late Monday into Monday night."

We're not that far from April now. I wonder if this event will be the start of one after the other for a while? I hope not, but it is spring in Dixie. Hope you still get to go to the symposium!

Unless something unexpected comes up I'll be there. I waited until the last minute to register online this time instead of early like I did last year LOL! I'm just glad it's not Saturday. Amory is having a city wide clean up and several churches are putting together a concert later on Saturday to commemorate the 1 year anniversary of the tornado. I've been working closely with the city officials this week to make sure Saturday is free of inclement weather.

 

[Gail]

Unless something unexpected comes up I'll be there. I waited until the last minute to register online this time instead of early like I did last year LOL! I'm just glad it's not Saturday. Amory is having a city wide clean up and several churches are putting together a concert later on Saturday to commemorate the 1 year anniversary of the tornado. I've been working closely with the city officials this week to make sure Saturday is free of inclement weather.

I hadn’t heard about that. If we don’t end up going to Keesler to see our son, I’d love to come help. Can someone just come up and volunteer?

 

[JPWX]

I hadn’t heard about that. If we don’t end up going to Keesler to see our son, I’d love to come help. Can someone just come up and volunteer?

As far as I know it's free for anyone. Honestly they would love the help

 

[Clancy]

Some pretty remarkable radar imagery from Cuba.

 

[Gail]

As far as I know it's free for anyone. Honestly they would love the help

We ended up at Keesler. I think we’ll be here most weekends. He’s finishing up his Weather tech school soon, and he’s heading across the country to his duty station. We’re trying to spend as much time with him as we can before day trips are no longer an option. :,(

I hope Amory had a fantastic turnout!

 

[Clancy]

Very strong CIPS probs as we exit March and head into April.

 

[JPWX]

We ended up at Keesler. I think we’ll be here most weekends. He’s finishing up his Weather tech school soon, and he’s heading across the country to his duty station. We’re trying to spend as much time with him as we can before day trips are no longer an option. :,(

I hope Amory had a fantastic turnout!

I hope they did too. I attended the Severe Storm Symposium today, but I'll find out Monday how everything went. That's a great achievement and I know you both are very proud of him. Tell him I said congratulations.

 

[DetectiveWX]

Right near the 50th anniversary of super '74...

 

[Austin Dawg]

Right near the 50th anniversary of super '74...

That is exactly what I'm afraid of... Lots of people sitting in the middle of potentially stormy weather that would not ordinarily be there.

 

[JPWX]

This is exactly what I pointed out a month ago and why I'm very scared about April. When I made my first preliminary hurricane outlook (Patreon exclusive) back on October 1st, 2023, even though I didn't specifically talk about Spring tornado season yet, I had already considered 2010 and 2011 as analog years for Spring. BASED ON PAST EVENTS INCLUDING ENSO etc.

From my Patreon post on February 17th: I am expecting a very active Spring tornado season, but with tornadic activity being late. Given that March will be colder than normal due to winter sticking around, I feel that April is gonna be wild and the most active month for tornadoes.

It makes me proud and humbled when something you were already talking about a year in advance finally gets talked about by Weatherbell and others in the weather community. It's all about research, data collection, and looking at past events. It paids off in the end. Since I'm not on social anymore, I just have small meteorology text group and family I share my thoughts and all with. I'm not sharing this to get credit or anything like that. I share it because looking back at past events can help you become a better forecaster! And this is proof!

 

[MichelleH]

That is exactly what I'm afraid of... Lots of people sitting in the middle of potentially stormy weather that would not ordinarily be there.

Crowds of people in rural areas where the infrastructure can't accommodate that many people, possible threat of a tornado outbreak (to be determined) and the path of totality going smack through a major fault line. What could go wrong?

 

[Tennie]

Crowds of people in rural areas where the infrastructure can't accommodate that many people, possible threat of a tornado outbreak (to be determined) and the path of totality going smack through a major fault line. What could go wrong?

To me at least, that sounds like the setup to a B-grade disaster movie...

 

[JPWX]

Movie Title: Total Solar Tornado Eclipse Earthquake

Synopsis: a scientist uncovers historical artifacts that point to a rare Tornado Solar Eclipse occurring during a massive earthquake. They find that chemtrails work to weaken the Solar Tornado and stabilize the earthquake