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Severe Weather 2023
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
- Moderator
- #882
Somebody can fire up a thread for Saturday/Sunday if it needs its own discussion.
CheeselandSkies
Member
I'm considerably less enthusiastic about my chasing prospects than I was a few days ago. Looks like the bulk of this uptick in activity will be in MCS form and much further south than I'd prefer to go in mid-June. The southern jet stream gets hung up on the Gulf coast and interdicts the moisture feed to the northern stream through the end of the week according to the last few runs of the GFS.
Some slight hope for a northwest flow event late in the week, but nowhere near as high-ceiling as previously indicated.
Some slight hope for a northwest flow event late in the week, but nowhere near as high-ceiling as previously indicated.
- Moderator
- #884
Tuesday through Thursday looks like the most active period with MCS clusters carrying risk of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. Eastern half of Oklahoma into AR on Tuesday has me the most concerned for the tornado threat as point soundings have been indicative of significant tornado potential in that region.
Someone is gonna get a lot of rainfall the next 10 days according to the 12z Euro. Of course, looking at the total precipitation forecast off the models is pretty useless this time of year unless there's a tropical system involved due to the Summer type hit/miss pattern across the South.
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- Moderator
- #886
Yeah, these thunderstorms that track over the same areas will definitely be a concern of serious flood potential.
Some soundings valid at 8pm Wednesday off the 18z GFS. One is near the AL/MS border (Lowndes County MS/Lamar County AL) and the others are within Monroe County MS. Has anyone started another thread yet for this? Instability won't be lacking LOL!
Attachments
Treys updated video
Austin Dawg
Member
Even with all the storms that are supposed around, we're supposed to start hitting the century mark over here. Usually doesn't happen until the dry air settles in and we lose the high dew point temperatures.
It's definitely going to be an El Niño summer here.
It's definitely going to be an El Niño summer here.
- Moderator
- #891
Looks like this period of severe weather is going to roll into the weekend as well.
So upon viewing my GoPro footage from Sunday night, I caught 2 power flashes. I had the GoPro aimed West towards Nettleton, MS. @JBishopwx Not sure if it was part of the possible tornado or not. It was the first time I caught something like this though.
Attachments
CheeselandSkies
Member
0Z GFS, what are you doing Sunday, June 18th in...(checks notes) southwest Alabama??
Austin Dawg
Member
Many signs look like Spring instead of June. What factors could change an event like this during this time of year and make it worse... or a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency? I don't think we are looking at a possible event to reach major outbreak status like we saw back in March, but could we still see several tornadoes during this time?
I'm just curious because I have no idea what to expect.
I'm just curious because I have no idea what to expect.
Equus
Member
Moderate risk issued
Equus
Member
Probably time for a June 15 thread because we just jumped from slight to moderate in one outlook
Years with 2+ Moderate Risks in June: 2022, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2014 (had 7), 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010 (had 6), 2009, 2008 (had 7), 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004, 2003 (had 10), 2002 (had 6), 2001 (had 8), and 2000 (had 7).
Avon
Member
It was nice for Detroit and to FINALLY get some severe action yesterday