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Severe Weather 2023

DetectiveWX said:
Given how this year is going, I wouldn't be shocked if this Fall resembles the mod-super Ninos of 2015, 2002, 1994, 1982 and 1957 in the tornado department. Then again, 2021 and 2000 were a Nina, 2001 was - neutral, and 1992 and 2019 were + neutral, and all had something nasty in Dixie...
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Fall 1957 had 115 total tornadoes (18 in October, 59 in November, 38 in December)
Fall 1982 had 124 total tornadoes (9 in October, 19 in November, 96 in December)
Fall 1992 had 215 total tornadoes (34 in October, 161 in November, 20 in December)
Fall 1994 had 97 total tornadoes (51 in October, 42 in November, 4 in December)
Fall 2000 had 140 total tornadoes (64 in October, 50 in November, 26 in December)
Fall 2001 had 249 total tornadoes (117 in October, 110 in November, 22 in December)
Fall 2002 had 253 total tornadoes (58 in October, 96 in November, 99 in December)
Fall 2004 had 255 total tornadoes (79 in October, 150 in November, 26 in December)
Fall 2015 had 221 total tornadoes (40 in October, 98 in November, 83 in December)
Fall 2019 had 137 total tornadoes (62 in October, 19 in November, 56 in December)
Fall 2021 had 398 total tornadoes (150 in October, 21 in November, 227 in December)

So I added 2004 in because there's some talk that this El Nino could become more Central Pacific based than Eastern Pacific. This would make it more of a Modoki type El Nino. 2004 was the last Modoki El Nino. Plus 2004 has been showing up a lot in what I've been researching as far as what to expect this hurricane season in the Atlantic.
 
JPWX said:
Fall 1957 had 115 total tornadoes (18 in October, 59 in November, 38 in December)
Fall 1982 had 124 total tornadoes (9 in October, 19 in November, 96 in December)
Fall 1992 had 215 total tornadoes (34 in October, 161 in November, 20 in December)
Fall 1994 had 97 total tornadoes (51 in October, 42 in November, 4 in December)
Fall 2000 had 140 total tornadoes (64 in October, 50 in November, 26 in December)
Fall 2001 had 249 total tornadoes (117 in October, 110 in November, 22 in December)
Fall 2002 had 253 total tornadoes (58 in October, 96 in November, 99 in December)
Fall 2004 had 255 total tornadoes (79 in October, 150 in November, 26 in December)
Fall 2015 had 221 total tornadoes (40 in October, 98 in November, 83 in December)
Fall 2019 had 137 total tornadoes (62 in October, 19 in November, 56 in December)
Fall 2021 had 398 total tornadoes (150 in October, 21 in November, 227 in December)

So I added 2004 in because there's some talk that this El Nino could become more Central Pacific based than Eastern Pacific. This would make it more of a Modoki type El Nino. 2004 was the last Modoki El Nino. Plus 2004 has been showing up a lot in what I've been researching as far as what to expect this hurricane season in the Atlantic.
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I didn't recall November 2004 being that active. Here's the culprit. Doesn't fit the ENSO grouping but the following year was equally active in November (149) and with more memorable events including the deadly Evansville, IN F3, an outbreak in Iowa and the high risk day on the 15th that included the only official violent tornado of the year in Kentucky.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
I didn't recall November 2004 being that active. Here's the culprit. Doesn't fit the ENSO grouping but the following year was equally active in November (149) and with more memorable events including the deadly Evansville, IN F3, an outbreak in Iowa and the high risk day on the 15th that included the only official violent tornado of the year in Kentucky.
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And the Sunday after Thanksgiving outbreak to top it off.
 
Another Eastern European tornado to occur this month (July 22) affected forested areas near Minsk. It apparently struck a campsite, killing one and injuring two others there, though the ESWD has not confirmed the casualties:


Still earlier this month, a tornado hit a village in Samtskhe-Javakheti, Georgia. Nineteenth tornado (excluding waterspouts) in Georgia since 2000, and their strongest since 2009:
 
JPWX said:
Very true and even if we see a big Gulf system this season, we know that it doesn't take the Gulf that long to warm back up. However, if we don't see a big hurricane in the Gulf this year, it's gonna be trouble for Fall tornado season. 2015 is a good example of this but the Gulf wasn't as hot as it is now back in July 2015.
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Yes, that is my fear as well. We could have a severe season lasting from November until the more normal Spring season. I was reading the repetitive Forecast discussion for the Austin/San Antonio NWS Office, and something stood out. See if it stands out for you as well.

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Key message: Returning heat headlines are nearly guaranteed by
Sunday or Monday as upper ridging will recenter over the central to
southern high Plains and continues to dominate our weather in the
long term period. No rain, increasing temperatures, and slightly
higher humidity will characterize the forecast this weekend into
next week.

We`ll start out the long term period on Saturday with near to
slightly above normal temperatures, but height rises will quickly
follow and temperatures (both daytime highs and overnight lows) will
increase Sunday and again Monday. Could see the need for Heat
Advisories in a few areas on Sunday, and by Monday they`ll be a
guarantee for much of the region. Daytime highs Monday through
Thursday will be in the 98-106 degree range, and with slightly
higher afternoon humidity expected we`ll see many areas with heat
indices topping out near 108-112 along and east of I-35 once again
Tuesday through Thursday of next week.

Wish we had better news, but unfortunately, we`ll continue to see
worsening drought impacts, and a few more temperature records will be
threatened. By this time next week, we`ll likely be one day shy of
the all-time record for consecutive 100-degree days at Austin Camp
Mabry (27, set in 2011). If Bergstrom (currently at 19 consecutive
days) can hit the century mark today through Saturday, it would then
be virtually guaranteed that site would break it`s record of 23
consecutive 100-degree days set in 1951 and tied in 1998
 
Heck of a downburst north of Baltimore last night. Numerous LSRs. Got clipped by it here in DC
 
First 2% tornado probability outside of a tropical system for North AL since August 22nd, 2015
 

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FFC AFD mentions threat for brief tornadoes north of I-20 as storms pop later today.
Current 500mb analysis shows deep NW flow aloft continues across the
southeast US. An MCS is noted across eastern MO/southern IL this
morning and should continue to drop SE through the remainder of the
overnight hours. This system and/or it`s associated outflow will be
the main weather maker for today. The hi-res models have had some
decent run to run consistency with the evolution of this system, just
some timing differences. The models are a little later with timing
trends than this time yesterday.

The MCS will have a favorable atmos to work with as it moves across
north and central GA. Good shear values, especially up in the NW and
plenty of surface instability/moisture. The drier air across the
western CWA is gone and PWATS are progged to increase to between 2"-
2.5" ahead of the MCS today...well above normal. The MCS will be a
very efficient rain maker. Localized flooding will be possible,
especially if storms train over the same locations. With good deep
layer shear present, mainly north of I-20, a few brief tornadoes are
possible. The primary hazard (mostly likely), will be damaging wind
gusts and will persist along the line as it moves across the CWA.
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