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Severe Weather 2023

JBishopwx

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Jackson's AFD:
Christmas Eve Through Christmas Day...

The merged trough will move east across the Plains states and will
bring a front into the area by late Christmas Eve into Christmas
Day. The trough is not expected to be overly potent but will be
modified by the northward drifting southern stream jet axis as a
potent jet streak shifts across Mexico into the northern Gulf of
Mexico. Current expectations are that this will create a broad zone
of lowering pressures and the relatively disorganized interactions
will struggle to properly align for robust, concentrated
cyclogenesis. The net result is advection trajectories in the
boundary layer that will generally be easterly until very near the
front itself and this will likely stifle substantial low level
moisture recovery as only partially modified continental air is
drawn westward. That said, some weak surface based or elevated
instability will likely be sufficient for thunder with the best
chances for any stronger cells to be in the southern parts of the
area. Strong to severe storms can't be ruled out at this point as
several upper features will be interacting and that will continue to
introduce higher uncertainty than is typical. Confidence should
rapidly increase, however, over the next day or two as the the
features in question become better sampled by the RAOB network and
the eventual evolution/merger begins to become more clear.
 

KevinH

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So what's the thoughts on potential for severe weather Sunday into Monday?
Not until I see:

1. Consistent agreement with the models AND
2. A mention or highlight from the SPC (depending on their wording lol)

We don’t need an “O word” on CHRISTmas :(

Curious to know how many times that has happened (if at all?).
 

MichelleH

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Christmas Eve/Day Outbreaks:

1964 (SE U.S.)
1982 (Central/SE U.S.)
2009 (Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, MS)
2012 (Southern U.S.)
2014 (Southern/Midwest U.S.)
2015 (Southern/Midwest U.S.)

Remember 2012 well. A post from me led to a friend from UAH warning her friend in Mobile who was about to go out and would have been in the tornado.
 

TH2002

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Seriously though, what is it about Tuscaloosa in particular that just attracts tornadoes? Is there some kind of secret project going on at Tuscaloosa's hidden underground Area 52 base to develop tornado bait? Or is it an appalling lack of cannons as in New Richmond's case?
 

TheSuckZone

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Seriously though, what is it about Tuscaloosa in particular that just attracts tornadoes? Is there some kind of secret project going on at Tuscaloosa's hidden underground Area 52 base to develop tornado bait? Or is it an appalling lack of cannons as in New Richmond's case?

If you figure it out, Moore, OK would like a word next
 

KevinH

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Seriously though, what is it about Tuscaloosa in particular that just attracts tornadoes? Is there some kind of secret project going on at Tuscaloosa's hidden underground Area 52 base to develop tornado bait? Or is it an appalling lack of cannons as in New Richmond's case?
MS/AL are tornado magnets partially (mostly??) because they sit DIRECTLY north of the gulf of Mexico, which is typically a good source of humid air.

Humid air = fuel for storms.
 

UncleJuJu98

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Seriously though, what is it about Tuscaloosa in particular that just attracts tornadoes? Is there some kind of secret project going on at Tuscaloosa's hidden underground Area 52 base to develop tornado bait? Or is it an appalling lack of cannons as in New Richmond's case?

I think center point/fultondale area north of Birmingham is as big of a magnet as Tuscaloosa lol
 

TH2002

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MS/AL are tornado magnets partially (mostly??) because they sit DIRECTLY north of the gulf of Mexico, which is typically a good source of humid air.

Humid air = fuel for storms.
Well, my previous post was obviously intended to be a joke - there is a reason no comedy club will hire me.

I know, I'm not funny...
 
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