Severe Weather 2023

[UncleJuJu98]

Southern tip of Florida is going to be rocking tonight.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JPWX]

Let's name it before TWC does.....

 

[UncleJuJu98]

The Miami area looks like a hotzone early tommorow morning for some potential spin ups.

 

[Clancy]

SPC says Tornado Watch possible tonight.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2331

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may move ashore
from the Gulf of Mexico over the next several hours. Isolated
tornadoes and damaging gusts are the main threats. The need for a
Tornado Watch issuance depends on how much instability can precede
the approaching line of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the FL Peninsula as an upper-level
trough continues to amplify over the MS Valley. A confluence band
preceding the aforementioned surface low is comprised of convection
that has percolated in intensity over the last few hours, and is
poised to move ashore sometime before Midnight EST. Widespread rain
and convection have been overspreading the Peninsula for much of the
day, with 00Z soundings over TBW and MFL depicting low/mid-level
lapse rates barely exceeding 5 C/km. Despite low 70s F dewpoints,
buoyancy has been meager so far, though gradual increases in
instability are possible across southern FL tonight.

Shear profiles are impressive ahead of the rapidly deepening surface
low, with the same aforementioned observed soundings showing very
large, curved hodographs in the 0-3 km layer. As such, it is not out
of the question for a few damaging gusts or tornadoes to occur if a
persistent updraft can develop and ingest any available
surface-based, unstable parcels. As such, conditions are being
monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch issuance.

 

[TH2002]

A small but stout supercell (currently Special Marine-warned) could cause problems on land if it holds together and makes landfall somewhere west of Tampa in the next 1-2 hours.

 

[Clancy]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

No reports...lack of instability killed this setup (in FL).

 

[Clancy]

No reports...lack of instability killed this setup (in FL).

Definitely was the thermos dragging on this one, the wind fields got pretty gnarly in some areas given the proximity of the low, so glad the Florida portion was a sleeper.

 

[TH2002]

TOG near Myrtle Beach

 

[TH2002]

Seems it was a rather brief spin-up, as the TDS only lasted for one or two scans. Storm still has a hook and couplet though, so could produce again at any time.

 

[TH2002]

Healthy squall line now moving along the Carolina Coast.

 

[Clancy]

 

[southmdwatcher]

Flash Flood Emergency in eastern Georgetown County SC, right behind that embedded tornadic supercell, a train of heavy showers and storms continue into the Myrtle Beach area.

 

[warneagle]

13" of rain and it's still just surging in. Really bad situation.

 

[southmdwatcher]

Just north of McClellanville SC up to Georgetown SC now has 12 plus inches of rain with an onshore wind blocking the tide, this still is not showing any signs of deviating. LSR report 7 miles northeast of McClellanville has 12.21 inches of rain since Midnight and continues as of 15 minutes ago.

 

[WesL]

respect the poly-cone-tri-gon

 

[Tennie]

respect the poly-cone-tri-gon

View attachment 22666

When you're trying to draw a dog using the straight line tool in MSPaint but you've had too much to drink...

 

[JPWX]

So what's the thoughts on potential for severe weather Sunday into Monday?

 

[MichelleH]

So what's the thoughts on potential for severe weather Sunday into Monday?

I hope not. We don't need reindeers identifying as cows.