• Looks like our DeLorean hit 88 miles per hour a little too hard! A recent style update went sideways, sending us back to a retro look for a bit. We've parked that faulty future theme for now while we tinker under the hood.
  • Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2023

SPC says Tornado Watch possible tonight.

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2331

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov
SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may move ashore
from the Gulf of Mexico over the next several hours. Isolated
tornadoes and damaging gusts are the main threats. The need for a
Tornado Watch issuance depends on how much instability can precede
the approaching line of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the FL Peninsula as an upper-level
trough continues to amplify over the MS Valley. A confluence band
preceding the aforementioned surface low is comprised of convection
that has percolated in intensity over the last few hours, and is
poised to move ashore sometime before Midnight EST. Widespread rain
and convection have been overspreading the Peninsula for much of the
day, with 00Z soundings over TBW and MFL depicting low/mid-level
lapse rates barely exceeding 5 C/km. Despite low 70s F dewpoints,
buoyancy has been meager so far, though gradual increases in
instability are possible across southern FL tonight.

Shear profiles are impressive ahead of the rapidly deepening surface
low, with the same aforementioned observed soundings showing very
large, curved hodographs in the 0-3 km layer. As such, it is not out
of the question for a few damaging gusts or tornadoes to occur if a
persistent updraft can develop and ingest any available
surface-based, unstable parcels. As such, conditions are being
monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch issuance.
Click to expand...
 
A small but stout supercell (currently Special Marine-warned) could cause problems on land if it holds together and makes landfall somewhere west of Tampa in the next 1-2 hours.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
No reports...lack of instability killed this setup (in FL).
Click to expand...
Definitely was the thermos dragging on this one, the wind fields got pretty gnarly in some areas given the proximity of the low, so glad the Florida portion was a sleeper.
 
Seems it was a rather brief spin-up, as the TDS only lasted for one or two scans. Storm still has a hook and couplet though, so could produce again at any time.
 
Flash Flood Emergency in eastern Georgetown County SC, right behind that embedded tornadic supercell, a train of heavy showers and storms continue into the Myrtle Beach area.
 
Just north of McClellanville SC up to Georgetown SC now has 12 plus inches of rain with an onshore wind blocking the tide, this still is not showing any signs of deviating. LSR report 7 miles northeast of McClellanville has 12.21 inches of rain since Midnight and continues as of 15 minutes ago.
 
So what's the thoughts on potential for severe weather Sunday into Monday?
 

Attachments

  • 500wh.conus.png
    500wh.conus.png
    787.3 KB · Views: 0
  • 500wh.conus (1).png
    500wh.conus (1).png
    777.2 KB · Views: 0
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top