Severe Weather 2023

[Taylor Campbell]

One thing of other interest is that the preliminary tornado count for March is 37 (as of the 13th). This is the exact same count as March 2010. The snow season at Mammoth Mountain during 2010-11 ended up at 668.5 inches. Their highest snow total on record going back to 1969-70. I agree with @tennessee storm chaser that April could be a very active severe weather/tornado producing month where only a handful of recent years of 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2022 had more than 200 tornadoes in April. One thing that I have just found that @Timhsv alluded to on the California snow pack. Since 2000, using the Mammoth Mountain historic data set, years that have had less than 600 inches of snow have featured less than 200 tornadoes in April. One thing to note depending on one's point of view there is an exception where both 2006 and 2009 ended up having less than 600 inches of snow on Mammoth Mountain whereas you still ended up with over 200 tornadoes occurring during both April's of 2006/2009.

What is Mammoth Mountain’s current snowpack?

 

[JPWX]

What is Mammoth Mountain’s current snowpack?

629.5 inches as of March 15th from their Ski Patrol report though the snowfall total report from the Main Lodge is 618 inches as of March 16th.

 

[Austin Dawg]

LOL! Sounds like Texas Spring Weather.

Hazardous Weather Outlook​

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
205 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2023

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated locations in the Hill Country could see low temperatures
early Sunday morning dip to at or below freezing for an hour or
two. The highest chances for this to occur are in portions of
Bandera, Kendall, Kerr, Gillespie, and Blanco Counties, where an
SPS will be issued. But low lying areas in Williamson and eastern
Travis counties may also see a brief freeze.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Our next cold front will arrive on Thursday evening into Thursday
night, bringing a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms to the
region with the best chances likely to be over our northern
counties. Damaging straight line winds, large hail, and tornadoes
may all be possible. Forecast refinements will be needed as
details become more clear.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Euros ejections and features are better than the GFS. I'd say Mississippi is looking the best for severe at this point. Definitely a watcher

I don't want anyone to get hurt but my soul needs a weekend daytime storm to chase.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

GFS wants a major event over the southeast at the end of next week... Hmm

 

[JPWX]

Off the 18z GFS valid at 195 hours (next Sunday). First sounding North of Smithville (in Itawamba County) and 2nd sounding to the Northeast of Smithville (in Itawamba County). Looks to me like we'll have two potential severe weather threats. First one: Thursday/Friday timeframe then the 2nd one occurring Sunday/Monday.

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Baw

 

[ashtonlemleywx]

Somebody start the new thread.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

View attachment 18793
Somebody start the new thread.

I will!

 

[JPWX]

I will!

I just started it! LOL!

 

[JPWX]

I will!

I deleted mine so you're good.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

I deleted mine so you're good.

Alright.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Wow. That’s a big time severe event on the GFS for next Sunday the 26th. Its solutions have conveyed an environment that could be largely unstable over a wide area.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Off the 18z GFS valid at 195 hours (next Sunday). First sounding North of Smithville (in Itawamba County) and 2nd sounding to the Northeast of Smithville (in Itawamba County). Looks to me like we'll have two potential severe weather threats. First one: Thursday/Friday timeframe then the 2nd one occurring Sunday/Monday.

 

[JBishopwx]

I will!

March 23-24th, 2023

SPC has outlined these dates in a discussion. Not sure if they got an outlook out, but eh. Let's go.

talkweather.com

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Models show a lot of uncertainty about our next potential threat after Thursday/Friday's system.

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190905
SPC AC 190905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0405 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2023

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Airmass modification and a northward flux of low-level moisture will
occur across the southern Plains through mid-week, as upper trough
amplification occurs over the Southwest. On Day 4/Wednesday, while a
15+ percent severe area is not currently warranted, some severe
potential may exist near a surface low across Kansas and a front
extending east-northeastward into Missouri/Illinois.

For Day 5/Thursday, severe weather seems probable across portions of
the southern Plains Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Current
thinking is that severe potential should be maximized near the
advancing cold front across Oklahoma toward the Ozarks and near the
southward-extending dryline into north/west-central Texas. All
severe hazards are plausible.

Severe-weather potential will likely persist eastward toward the
ArkLaMiss/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee into Day/6 Friday.
This scenario will be supported by strong deep-layer/low-level
winds, atop a relatively moist boundary layer ahead of a cold front
and/or lingering convection from Day 5/Thursday night.

Thereafter, guidance variability considerably increases into the
weekend, with uncertainties regarding the details of subsequent
severe potential.

..Guyer.. 03/19/2023

 

[JPWX]

I just thought of this. Anyone know what the shortest time span between significant severe weather outbreaks is for like the same area/region? From back to back separate storm systems. Not a multi-day threat from one storm system.

 

[amp1998]

Feb 29, 2012 and March 2, 2012 for Kentucky. Literally just 1 day in between 2 significant tornado events.

I just thought of this. Anyone know what the shortest time span between significant severe weather outbreaks is for like the same area/region? From back to back separate storm systems. Not a multi-day threat from one storm system.

 

[JPWX]

Feb 29, 2012 and March 2, 2012 for Kentucky. Literally just 1 day in between 2 significant tornado events.

O wow! Okay. I didn't realize it had been that long ago.

 

[Austin Dawg]

Finally got a copy of Supercell. For those of you who don't know it's the latest tornado/weather movie. It's OK if you're a real movie buff it is a little slow and the acting is a little wooden. The special effect production quality is pretty cheap . You can also easily pick out the Blue screen shots. What they did do well is happen was get an astonishing amount of actual footage of storms. The storm footage is pretty impressive and they a pretty good job of explaining severe weather.

I'm not a storm chaser, but It feels like they try to relay what that experience is like and what drives people to chase tornadoes. They also reference all the right termanology. I enjoyed it. I think they tried to touch on some deeper aspects of meteorologist, and I'm not smart enough to know the if they did it correctly, but at least they tried. They do talk about some things I have never heard discussed about in a storm movie before. If you get a chance, I would recommend watching it and when you get to through if you have a chance read this summary, I ran across... but don't read it until you watch the movie it'll spoil it.

SUPERCELL