Even thought this May doesn’t seem like it will live up to the hype that it was showing just about a week or so ago, you can’t deny the fact that there has overall been more Plains activity this May than there has been last year and in 2020.A few severe weather events are possible in the upper Midwest/northern Plains this week. The setup looked better/potentially very significant/epic before the models caught on to the previous trough cutting off and retrograding over the Southeast, which is messing up the ability of this next one to eject across the Plains in the ideal broad-based/subtly negatively-tiled fashion.
Even so, there is some potential today, tomorrow, and Thursday. I probably won't chase today since the best potential looks to be close to the Twin Cities, the St. Croix/Mississippi River Valleys, and up into the North Woods. If something were able to fire further south into northeast Iowa, it would probably be big, but forecast soundings have been showing significant dry air in the 850-700mb layer.
Then there is a sneaky slight risk into my backyard tomorrow. 12Z HRRR puts a sup right through Columbia County. 0-1 KM SRH appears to be lacking on soundings, though. Yet EHI is large because of monster CAPE. Go figure we get a high CAPE/low shear setup at 43 north in early May.
Thursday has a large area of severe potential over better chase terrain further west (SD/ND/western MN), but shear profiles look kind of wonky for tornadic supercell potential.