Severe Weather 2022 (14 Viewers)

The severe weather season for year 2022 will be?

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SouthFLwx

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A few severe weather events are possible in the upper Midwest/northern Plains this week. The setup looked better/potentially very significant/epic before the models caught on to the previous trough cutting off and retrograding over the Southeast, which is messing up the ability of this next one to eject across the Plains in the ideal broad-based/subtly negatively-tiled fashion.

Even so, there is some potential today, tomorrow, and Thursday. I probably won't chase today since the best potential looks to be close to the Twin Cities, the St. Croix/Mississippi River Valleys, and up into the North Woods. If something were able to fire further south into northeast Iowa, it would probably be big, but forecast soundings have been showing significant dry air in the 850-700mb layer.

Then there is a sneaky slight risk into my backyard tomorrow. 12Z HRRR puts a sup right through Columbia County. 0-1 KM SRH appears to be lacking on soundings, though. Yet EHI is large because of monster CAPE. Go figure we get a high CAPE/low shear setup at 43 north in early May.

Thursday has a large area of severe potential over better chase terrain further west (SD/ND/western MN), but shear profiles look kind of wonky for tornadic supercell potential.
Even thought this May doesn’t seem like it will live up to the hype that it was showing just about a week or so ago, you can’t deny the fact that there has overall been more Plains activity this May than there has been last year and in 2020.
 

Taylor Campbell

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There was a severe weather thread covering the severe threats this week, but I'm not finding it anymore. Can a moderate please bring back the old thread. Thank you.

A tornado watch is out for Wisconsin.
 
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There was a severe weather thread covering the severe threats this week, but I'm not finding it anymore. Can a moderate please bring back the old thread. Thank you.

A tornado watch is out for Wisconsin.

HRRR baited me out this afternoon...just got home after there was no sign of incipient CI in the area I was interested in (and indeed the latest couple of runs dropped that cell, starting with the first one to come in after I left the house, go figure). Not interested in going further out from home just to chase in the Northwoods or the horrible terrain of the Mississippi River valley.
 

TornadoFan

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PDS Severe thunderstorm watch issued for parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Iowa. 95% probs on both Severe Wind and 65+ kt wind.
 

bwalk

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I didn't know Iowa was such an active state for F5 tornadoes. It would be interesting to have the funnel icons colored in time ranges of 25 years or so to see any trends, ie, 1950- 1975 = yellow; 1976-2000 = orange; 2001- 2022 = red.
I just don't recall Iowa being known as an F5 producing state but obviously, I am mistaken.

1652397300964.png
 

warneagle

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I didn't know Iowa was such an active state for F5 tornadoes. It would be interesting to have the funnel icons colored in time ranges of 25 years or so to see any trends, ie, 1950- 1975 = yellow; 1976-2000 = orange; 2001- 2022 = red.
I just don't recall Iowa being known as an F5 producing state but obviously, I am mistaken.

View attachment 14075
Worth noting that a couple of the Iowa F5s were retroactively-rated tornadoes from the 1960s that were very questionable. Obviously Jordan and Parkersburg were textbook E/F5s though.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Almost 200 reports yesterday and over 400 yesterday. Two of the more active days in recent Mays, although lacking in terms of chase-worthy tornado production.

The blanket of 80+ mph wind reports yesterday was really impressive. There were multiple semi trucks blown over and unfortunately one fatality when a grain bin blew on top of an occupied vehicle.
 

buckeye05

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Pretty nasty tornado formed along the leading edge of yesterday's derecho and struck the small town of Castlewood, SD. Looks like EF2 damage. It appears it was one of the more photogenic QLCS tornadoes I've seen. They rarely have such a defined condensation funnel, if visible at all. Extremely thin and wiry, but seems to have packed quite a punch.
FSl-wouX0AIguBA
 

xJownage

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Pretty nasty tornado formed along the leading edge of yesterday's derecho and struck the small town of Castlewood, SD. Looks like EF2 damage. It appears it was one of the more photogenic QLCS tornadoes I've seen. They rarely have such a defined condensation funnel, if visible at all. Extremely thin and wiry, but seems to have packed quite a punch.
FSl-wouX0AIguBA
The forward motion on that video is just ridiculous.
 

gregassagraf

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Could someone help me understand what I just saw? I recorded this Timelapse:



Location: Pouso Alegre, Brazil
Date: 15th of May, 2022 at about 4:30 in the afternoon (GMT-3).
 

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