Severe Weather 2022

[Taylor Campbell]

Multiple significant severe weather episodes starting today and lined up over the next two weeks.

 

[SouthFLwx]

What do you guys think of the severe weather threat for today?

 

[Kolle]

Moderate risk out.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Wind driven, they explicitly address this in the discussion:

...Central Great Plains vicinity...
Multiple forecast scenarios are expected to unfold this afternoon
and continue into tonight. Sufficient mesoscale confidence exists to
warrant a wind-driven category 4/Moderate Risk along the NE/KS
border, but not yet enough to include higher tornado probabilities
farther south.

This is really the kind of day that the 10% hatched Enhanced is perfect for, IMO. In the old 3-tier outlook structure, there isn't enough confidence in sustained tornadic supercell development over S KS/OK for a 15% hatched moderate risk, but a 5%/slight risk doesn't really convey the extent of the hazards that would occur should any such storms get going.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Still watching tomorrow locally. SPC's outlook seems to imply some potential for discrete supercells with all hazards, but then again it's Broyles. There's also the possibility that the action may set up over the Chicago metro, which would be a big negative for both chase quality and human impact.

 

[xJownage]

A lot of chasers seem to have high expectations for today, but I'm not buying it. I'm seeing DCAPE values as high as 1700 IVO the dryline and 1500 near the TP. DCAPE can be overcome, but this would almost certainly favor outflow dominant supercells, which causes the wind risk to make sense.

 

[Brice Wood]

Made a thread for the risk today, may need to expand it.

 

[Jessy89]

May need a thread for severe weather in western Carolinas Thursday shortwave could enhance storms more then just pop up variety


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[atrainguy]

 

[UK_EF4]

Monday has caught my eye. The SPC Day 3 discussion had quite strong wording for this range, with mentions of 'strong tornadoes' and 'a long tracked damaging tornado'. However, the forecaster was Broyles who I have noticed can be a little less conservative than other SPC forecasters. Having said this, the NAM does depict a fairly volatile environment - sickle shaped hodographs, significant instability, and unlike previous events: no cap. It will be interesting to see how this event unfolds.

 

[Brice Wood]

I have made an extension on the thread for the latest severe weather threat till may 2nd

 

[Bevo]

I have made an extension on the thread for the latest severe weather threat till may 2nd

Depending on how things shake out, it could be a very busy week. May 4th and May 5th are also days I am watching and have been outlined by SPC so far. Fort Worth's office put it quite nicely yesterday when detailing the long term forecast discussion:

The details of the rest of the forecast period will be murky and
thus the forecast details will be generic. This is actually
typical for this time of the year, May into early June can be very
difficult to forecast as convection episodes can dramatically
change the surface instability and positions of synoptic features
from day to day.

 

[Brice Wood]

Good God, May 8, and May 9th, look downright scary, was watching Ryan Hall’s newest YouTube video. He mentioned a word that gave me a nervous feeling. “Historic”

 

[Brice Wood]

Exact severe threat will come further notice

This event really has me concerned and worried.

talkweather.com

 

[TCLwx]

For one scan, the backside of this complex moving through Pickens/Tuscaloosa Counties looked a little interesting.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

SPC has a rather large 30 percent area on day 4 bout Little Rock towards Memphis … supercells looks be mode also

 

[OHWX97]

Today's latest SPC outlook:

 

[xJownage]

And the tiniest hatched hail I've ever seen in my life.

If anybody feels like going a little south of the border into mexico, here you go...have fun.

 

[atrainguy]

Big ole tornado watch area for the eastern Ohio Valley.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

A few severe weather events are possible in the upper Midwest/northern Plains this week. The setup looked better/potentially very significant/epic before the models caught on to the previous trough cutting off and retrograding over the Southeast, which is messing up the ability of this next one to eject across the Plains in the ideal broad-based/subtly negatively-tiled fashion.

Even so, there is some potential today, tomorrow, and Thursday. I probably won't chase today since the best potential looks to be close to the Twin Cities, the St. Croix/Mississippi River Valleys, and up into the North Woods. If something were able to fire further south into northeast Iowa, it would probably be big, but forecast soundings have been showing significant dry air in the 850-700mb layer.

Then there is a sneaky slight risk into my backyard tomorrow. 12Z HRRR puts a sup right through Columbia County. 0-1 KM SRH appears to be lacking on soundings, though. Yet EHI is large because of monster CAPE. Go figure we get a high CAPE/low shear setup at 43 north in early May.

Thursday has a large area of severe potential over better chase terrain further west (SD/ND/western MN), but shear profiles look kind of wonky for tornadic supercell potential.