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Severe Weather 2021

buckeye05 said:
Any word on damage yet? Haven't heard anything yet on social media.
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I doubt we'll hear much of anything until daylight. Other than South Salem, which is a tiny village of about 200 residence, population has been very sparse thus far, however Lancaster is in the path of this thing.
 
Couplet continues to intensify past Tarton. I haven't seen a cyclic supercell like this one around here since Memorial Day 2019. Unbelievable.
 
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The supercell is looking a little more ragged now and the inflow looks like it might becoming a bit more impeded. Might not be able to keep it up for too much longer.
 
Seems like everyone was expecting a big uptick last spring in severe wx. Which it was to some degree, but really more I’m looking at teleconnections and other factors , just think things will really amp up this winter into next spring with the latest Niña actually getting stronger than forecasted .
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
Seems like everyone was expecting a big uptick last spring in severe wx. Which it was to some degree, but really more I’m looking at teleconnections and other factors , just think things will really amp up this winter into next spring with the latest Niña actually getting stronger than forecasted .
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Agreed, 3/17 in particular was not as significant as I anticipated. 3/25 was much closer but still could have been much worse. There seems to be "something" keeping a lid on realized vs. potential ceiling of severe weather events over the last several years, even for ones that look very ominous right up to the 11th hour (most notably 5/20/19, but others as well). Obviously a good thing from a (relative lack of) death and destruction perspective, but a bit frustrating from an enthusiast/chaser perspective. Also, the flip side of this is that the higher end/higher impact events have been happening on more subtle/harder to forecast setups, which is not good for all concerned.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Agreed, 3/17 in particular was not as significant as I anticipated. 3/25 was much closer but still could have been much worse. There seems to be "something" keeping a lid on realized vs. potential ceiling of severe weather events over the last several years, even for ones that look very ominous right up to the 11th hour (most notably 5/20/19, but others as well). Obviously a good thing from a (relative lack of) death and destruction perspective, but a bit frustrating from an enthusiast/chaser perspective. Also, the flip side of this is that the higher end/higher impact events have been happening on more subtle/harder to forecast setups, which is not good for all concerned.
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We've had a lot of subtropical jet influence the last few years and I think it has to do with how anomalously warm the EPAC is between 10N and 30N. We shall see if that gets eroded over the coming weeks, but this is very unusual in a -ENSO...and thinking back it seems like the EPAC in this region has been like this since the 2015-2016 super El Nino.

ssta.daily.current.png
 
buckeye05 said:
New Salem, OH tornado has been rated EF2.
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That makes six eight confirmed tornadoes in Ohio. Even more crazy, the same supercell was responsible for the tornadoes in southern Indiana earlier that night, and continued to produce tornadoes into Pennsylvania. Another one may have touched down in northern Kentucky, but that has yet to be confirmed.

The incredible track the supercell took is very apparent on SPC's storm report map.
211015_rpts.png
 
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Marginal out for parts of AL/GA northward for wind tomorrow.
 

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