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Severe Weather 2021

buckeye05 said:
There was an EF3 that caused major damage in Agua Doce, Brazil along with other small villages nearby on August 14, 2020. There was also an unrated but significant tornado that destroyed several homes in Ireneopolis, Brazil that same afternoon.
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Thank you for jogging my memory of that event. I remember watching a spectacular video of the Irineópolis tornado traveling down a mountain. Curious as to why it went unrated.
 
WAFF's Brad Travis says keep any eye on the sky tomorrow across North Alabama.

 
SPC has a 15% severe area over western OK on Sunday (Day 5) and another 15% severe area over central OK on Tuesday (Day 7):

Storm Prediction Center Jun 14, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 060900
SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Wed Oct 06 2021

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Saturday/Day 4 to Monday/Day 6...
On Saturday, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move eastward
across the eastern U.S. as southwest mid-level flow becomes
established in the south-central states. An upper-level trough is
forecast to move northeastward across the northern Plains on
Saturday. The models suggest that some instability will develop by
afternoon from eastern parts of the Dakotas eastward into the upper
Mississippi Valley. Scattered thunderstorms should form ahead of the
upper-level trough. Storms that develop in areas that destabilize
the most should have a severe threat during the late afternoon and
evening. However, some uncertainty exists concerning the amount of
instability that will develop. For this reason, will not add an area
at this time.

From Saturday into Sunday, a fast-moving upper-level trough will
likely move across the southwestern states. Strong moisture
advection is forecast across the southern and central Plains where
surface dewpoints could rise into the lower to mid 60s F. In
response, a narrow corridor of moderate instability could be in
place by early evening from parts of north-central Texas across
Oklahoma and into southern Kansas. Under the expected scenario,
thunderstorms would develop late Sunday afternoon and move eastward
across this instability corridor during the early to mid evening. In
addition to moderate instability, deep-layer shear and large-scale
ascent would be favorable for severe thunderstorm development. The
environment should support supercells with isolated large hail and
wind-damage. A conditional tornado threat would also be possible.
Any severe threat would also impact parts of the Ozarks and Arklatex
during the overnight period but would probably be more isolated. A
severe threat area has been added for the expected scenario.

On Monday, the models move the upper-level trough northeastward into
the Mississippi Valley but spread is large. The ECMWF moves the
trough into the north-central states while the GFS keeps the trough
on a southern track into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Both
of these solutions have a corridor of maximized low-level moisture
across the Mississippi Valley. Areas of moderate instability will be
likely along parts of this corridor on Monday, which would support a
severe threat. However, the large model spread concerning the track
of the upper-level trough introduces too much uncertainty to add a
threat area.

...Tuesday/Day 7 to Wednesday/Day 8...
On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward
across the southwestern U.S. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
will likely advect northward across the southern and central Plains.
In response, a corridor of moderate instability is forecast to
develop in parts of the southern and central Plains by late Tuesday
afternoon. However, spread is large on the timing of the upper-level
trough with the ECMWF much slower than the GFS solution. Deep-layer
shear should strengthen as the system approaches the southern
Plains. The instability should make conditions favorable for severe
storms across parts of the southern central Plains Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Will add a severe threat area for Tuesday to account
for this scenario.

For Wednesday, moderate instability should continue to be in place
across parts of the southern and central Plains. A severe threat
will also be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially if
the slower ECMWF solution verifies.

..Broyles.. 10/06/2021
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Looks like there's a potential for a multi-day outbreak over the Southern Plains early next week, though considering the fact that it was Broyles who wrote the forecast (and keep in mind that he has a bit of a...reputation, shall we say), perhaps the best thing to do is take a "wait and see" approach.
 
Not particularly special, but MRGL out today. 2% TOR threat straddles the AL/GA border and goes up through KY.
1633534201930.png
 
andyhb said:
That is the first SPC D7 outlook ever issued in the period between August and December, FYI.
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Broyles finally pulled the trigger after some pretty in-depth discussions the last few days. As was previously stated it's wise to take his longer-range outlooks with an extra grain of salt, but with my own perusal of the GFS and Euro for next Tuesday I don't see any reason to disagree with him other than the usual caveat that it's almost a week out.
 
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Newest SPC outlook adds small SLGT for 5% risk for tornadoes. Huntsville, AL and Rome, GA are some places included. Also adds 15% wind risk in the same area.
1633538531257.png
 
Tornado warning just west of Macon, GA.
 
24FE237B-48E3-41B7-8AA1-90B2C612AD81.jpegSPC has pulled the trigger and issued a 30% for day 4.

Storm Prediction Center Apr 11, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov

Still a bit of uncertainty from the discussion but with 10/20/19 still fresh on the minds of DFW residents something to watch carefully.
 
Bevo said:
View attachment 10469SPC has pulled the trigger and issued a 30% for day 4.

Storm Prediction Center Apr 11, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov

Still a bit of uncertainty from the discussion but with 10/20/19 still fresh on the minds of DFW residents something to watch carefully.
Click to expand...

I can't help but wonder if this is the first time that a 30% severe area has ever been issued on a Day 4-8 in the last few months of a given year.
 
Tennie said:
I can't help but wonder if this is the first time that a 30% severe area has ever been issued on a Day 4-8 in the last few months of a given year.
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I was thinking the same thing.
I’m keeping updated daily with the FWD area discussion. Supposed to fly back Sunday evening so I think I’ll make it back home in time, but looks like an overnight threat.
 
I'm thinking D6 Tue-Wed is going to be the main event as far as tornadoes are concerned. Still expecting an event in the vein of 10/4/1998 or 10/20/2019 on D4 Sun-Mon though.
 
Fall severe weather looks to be on the uptick. We've been stuck under a high-pressure ridge for a while now. I hope it's not too bad because all that area will be visually locked in the Texas vs Oklahoma game on Saturday and NFL Sunday. I'm sure it won't happen but I've always worried about a tornado hitting a big sporting event. I remember standing under the stadium bleachers at Mississippi State watching the radar on the big screen when we were suddenly under a tornado warning in November which was always stormy; Were okay after but our football team was beyond saving that season.
 
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