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Archive Severe Weather 2019

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Weatherphreak

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Brad Travis mentioning may need to watch next Saturday in North Alabama. Huge temp swing from near 70 to near freezing for highs in 24hrs. What are the models showing?
 

Kory

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Brad Travis mentioning may need to watch next Saturday in North Alabama. Huge temp swing from near 70 to near freezing for highs in 24hrs. What are the models showing?
Euro/UKMET would probably be a marginal severe weather event. Another high shear/low cape kind of event Saturday into Saturday night. But yes, we'll probably go from mid 60s Saturday during the day to near or below freezing for most of Sunday across Dixie.
 

Kory

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Marginal risk introduced for Saturday for parts of MS and AL. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight as models have come in a bit higher with instability.
 

MichelleH

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Slight risk for Saturday...

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

day2otlk_1730.gif
 

Kory

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This looks like it could be a sneaky event south of I-20/59. Instability on HRRR is nosing upwards of 500+ J/KG with enough low-level shear. Couple of stronger UH streaks down toward Montgomery.
 

warneagle

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Fairly sizable slight risk with 5% TOR (although I'd be kind of surprised if any serious tornado activity takes place that far north).

day1otlk_1200.gif
 

rolltide_130

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Fairly sizable slight risk with 5% TOR (although I'd be kind of surprised if any serious tornado activity takes place that far north).

day1otlk_1200.gif


Well the 5% doesn't typically account for serious activity. If anything I wouldn't be too surprised to see an upgrade in S AL, FL, and SW GA if trends continue. The 0z suite is painting a somewhat ominous picture for tomorrow down there..
 

Kory

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Tornado warning for Sumter County, AL. That storm has some decent rotation with it. It's riding I-20/59 NE. May need to keep an eye on it here in Tuscaloosa.
 

Jacob

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It's odd to me that the newly issued tornado watch didn't include Tuscaloosa County, given that this storm is tracking in that direction.
 

rolltide_130

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Today could be another surprise in S AL and the FL Panhandle. These troughs have been higher quality lately which can get more out of less than messy troughs can.
 

Jacob

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Troublesome pattern potentially downstream 7-10 days out. Euro may be signaling a potentially active severe period.

I love the look on the Euro and GFS for next week. I'll be out at Lake Tahoe next week, and am hoping for a cold/snowy pattern. Warm here in the SE usually means a cool/snowy look out there.
 
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