Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[ColdFront]

@ColdFront This is what I'm referring to

Thanks for the background. I think the consensus amongst the majority so far is that the London KY tornado is not a plausible EF5 candidate. That may change with time, but I doubt it

 

[ColdFront]

It likely won’t be verifiable even as EF4 due to lacking construction again.
Idk how conservative NWS Jackson Kentucky is considering they haven’t seen this caliber of tornado since 2012.

They’re going to absolutely have to have outside help

 

[OH-IOan]

It likely won’t be verifiable even as EF4 due to lacking construction again.
Idk how conservative NWS Jackson Kentucky is considering they haven’t seen this caliber of tornado since 2012.

If they factor in contextuals and the tree damage we could definitely see an EF4. Some of that tree damage in London is insane.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

Looks like we have 2 violent tornado candidates now. Marion and London. And maybe a third in Bloomington, Indiana.

 

[tornado examiner]

I’m sensing we’ll be back on the debate thread again soon.

 

[AJS]

Looks like we have 2 violent tornado candidates now. Marion and London. And maybe a third in Bloomington, Indiana.

@andyhb posted a video that showed some potential high end damage near Linton, IN.

 

[OhOkayThen]

Horrible night, but could have been much worse if the Marion/Morganfield tornado hadn't lifted before getting into Owensboro (60k, 100k person County) or if the Somerset/London supercell had produced that tornado when it was on the northside of Bowling Green (70k, 140k person County). Both of the biggest tornado producing supercells went through 2 of the 4 most populated cities in the state of KY without producing.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I would argue that this isn’t really a strong EF5 candidate yet. If there’s a house thoroughly slabbed with evidence of anchor bolts with good context surrounding it, then I think we can start discussing that. The tree scar through the forest is really impressive though, and despite that not being a viable indicator of EF5 intensity, it at least gives it a very viable shot at an EF4 rating.

There’s quite moderate granulation, but the tree damage and vehicle damage I’ve seen isn’t overly impressive to me. There is one home I saw from earlier posts that’s definitely a solid EF4 candidate, and a surface level look leads me to think that could get a 180+ MPH rating just based on how the slab and debris looks. It doesn’t quite have “the look” that an EF5 would demand though.

You're definitely right. Good analysis. I pulled all the most extreme damage pics from the drone video shared in here, and it doesn't appear any of the houses are anchored. Still some impressive damage nonetheless, and worthy of an EF4 rating (maybe even high end). homes completely blown away deserve more respect from surveyors than they get currently, regardless of anchoring. It requires very violent winds to do this.








Here's an analysis I found on Twitter



It does appear there might be one EF5 candidate (per @vemir 's post) in the rural area @ColdFront was talking about earlier.

 

[N0mz]

Bloomington was given a prelim ef2, no? I think the other Missouri tornado has a good shot at ef3-4

Looks like we have 2 violent tornado candidates now. Marion and London. And maybe a third in Bloomington, Indiana.

 

[tornado examiner]

You're definitely right. Good analysis. I pulled all the most extreme damage pics from the drone video shared in here, and it doesn't appear any of the houses are anchored. Still some impressive damage nonetheless, and worthy of an EF4 rating (maybe even high end). homes completely blown away deserve more respect from surveyors than they get currently, regardless of anchoring. It requires very violent winds to do this.

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Here's an analysis I found on Twitter

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It does appear there might be one EF5 candidate (per @vemir 's post) in the rural area @ColdFront was talking about earlier.

That’s a cheaper cmu home that likely had insufficient anchoring. Not an EF5 candidate, not even a little.
This extends to the rest of the damage. No home in that part of the country is EF5 capable under our current scale.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

That’s a cheaper cmu home that likely had insufficient anchoring. Not an EF5 candidate, not even a little.
This extends to the rest of the damage. No home in that part of the country is EF5 capable under our current scale.

there's 5 different homes in my post. Which one are you referring to?

 

[tornado examiner]

there's 5 different homes in my post. Which one are you referring to?

I presumes it’s the one outlined in blue on that last photo.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Marion, Illinois is a violent candidate as well.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I presumes it’s the one outlined in blue on that last photo.

There's a big difference between homes being blown away vs. blown over. When they're blown away it's extremely impressive, regardless of the foundation imo. It requires immense force to loft a home off the ground and carry it considerable distances.

 

[Maxis_s]

Great footage but incredibly stupid move to just drive into the tornado.
EDIT: "If this thing lifts I'm going to be ticked" what a scumbag thing to say.

 

[Clancy]

Great footage but incredibly stupid move to just drive into the tornado.
EDIT: "If this thing lifts I'm going to be ticked" what a scumbag thing to say.

Terminal Storm Chaser Brain, holy heck.

 

[tornado examiner]

Mile wide low end EF3 in St. Louis.

 

[Maxis_s]

Mile wide low end EF3 in St. Louis.

The one that was in downtown? I had no idea it was that wide.

 

[Equus]

The nearly impenetrable 165 ceiling is going to be hard to break unless a nuclear bunker was hit, but the contextuals indicate a very impressive number of high end 3s at least. Far more violent a day than I figured.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

The nearly impenetrable 165 ceiling is going to be hard to break unless a nuclear bunker was hit, but the contextuals indicate a very impressive number of high end 3s at least. Far more violent a day than I figured.

You know there have been only been like 2 tornadoes that were rated F3/EF3 that killed 24+ people. I know fatality counts don't matter but it is quite certain the Somerset/London Kentucky tornado will receive an EF4 rating.