Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[AJS]

I would argue that this isn’t really a strong EF5 candidate yet. If there’s a house thoroughly slabbed with evidence of anchor bolts with good context surrounding it, then I think we can start discussing that. The tree scar through the forest is really impressive though, and despite that not being a viable indicator of EF5 intensity, it at least gives it a very viable shot at an EF4 rating.

There’s quite moderate granulation, but the tree damage and vehicle damage I’ve seen isn’t overly impressive to me. There is one home I saw from earlier posts that’s definitely a solid EF4 candidate, and a surface level look leads me to think that could get a 180+ MPH rating just based on how the slab and debris looks.

The vehicle damage is pretty lackluster, but there is some significant tree damage in London. Not extreme, but significant.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

I will say, looking closer at these posts, this is definitely one of the stronger EF5 candidates we've had in quite a while, so maybe I'll save the skepticism until after the surveys are done. I'll have to find some of @Sawmaster's old posts in the EF thread, and repost them there, because he made some really strong points about how a lot of older houses are actually quite a bit sturdier than most newer houses.

We did also say that after Diaz, Mayfield and Rolling Fork, though, so…

 

[Kds86z]

The vehicle damage is pretty lackluster, but there is some significant tree damage in London. Not extreme, but significant.

Diaz is the strongest of year correct? Is this less than that? I think so

 

[slenker]

Diaz is the strongest of year correct? Is this less than that? I think so

I believe Diaz was the strongest of the year quite solidly so far, but there’s likely still damage we haven’t seen from these tornadoes. I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if there was at least one high end EF4 indicator or even higher from yesterday.

 

[slenker]

We did also say that after Diaz, Mayfield and Rolling Fork, though, so…

Yes, but they were all very close to receiving the rating, so they were valid candidates. I haven’t seen any imagery from these tornadoes that is on the level of the damage inflicted by these three yet.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[AJS]

Diaz is the strongest of year correct? Is this less than that? I think so

Diaz was quite a bit stronger in my opinion. However, I have zero doubt with the damage shown that it has the hallmarks of a violent tornado.

 

[Kds86z]

Oops wrong thread!

 

[mariachi507]

I'm thinking a solid EF-4 which possibly peaked above that when it tracked through wooded areas. Plus, you'd be hard-pressed to find any construction that would qualify around here.

 

[vemir]

this home seems to have been hit directly by the london tornado while it was at its peak in between cities

 

[AJS]

this home seems to have been hit directly by the london tornado while it was at its peak in between cities

Man, this thing may have hit quite a bit between the two cities.

 

[tornado examiner]

paducah surveyors continue to be lightning quick getting di’s up on the DAT before anyone else.

 

[ColdFront]

Bowling Green storm is about to enter into the shadows. Good grief that radar hole is ridiculous.

Looking back, I really thought it was finished once it left Bowling Green. It didn’t look very impressive at all between Bowling Green until it reinvigorated West of Somerset, but that probably had to do with the radar hole.

Still, the definition of discrete. Fox Weather had a neat graphic showing the supercells birth in Missouri at noon yesterday in that initial grouping of 4 supercells. Tracks almost 500 miles to the east after that.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

First confirmed EF3 now near Sikeston, MO. Probably won’t be the last. What a day, this is easily the worst event I’ve ever tracked. A bit eerie seeing what was going through all of our minds late last night.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

So.....uhhh.....we have a possible EF5 candidate now, is what I'm hearing?

What tornado is that referring to? The KY one?

 

[ColdFront]

So.....uhhh.....we have a possible EF5 candidate now, is what I'm hearing?

What tornado is that referring to? The KY one?

Where do you see that? I have seen zero indication of any possibility of a 5.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

I will say, looking closer at these posts, this is definitely one of the stronger EF5 candidates we've had in quite a while, so maybe I'll save the skepticism until after the surveys are done. I'll have to find some of @Sawmaster's old posts in the EF thread, and repost them there, because he made some really strong points about how a lot of older houses are actually quite a bit sturdier than most newer houses.

@ColdFront This is what I'm referring to

EDIT: That's Marion. Looking at the scene, and all the photos.....doesn't scream EF5 to me, but then Rochelle was also somewhat lacking in ground scouring and still caused clear EF5 damage. Currently thinking EF4 for Marion pending further details.

 

[tornado examiner]

It likely won’t be verifiable even as EF4 due to lacking construction again.
Idk how conservative NWS Jackson Kentucky is considering they haven’t seen this caliber of tornado since 2012.

 

[ColdFront]

@ColdFront This is what I'm referring to

Thanks for the background. I think the consensus amongst the majority so far is that the London KY tornado is not a plausible EF5 candidate. That may change with time, but I doubt it

 

[ColdFront]

It likely won’t be verifiable even as EF4 due to lacking construction again.
Idk how conservative NWS Jackson Kentucky is considering they haven’t seen this caliber of tornado since 2012.

They’re going to absolutely have to have outside help