Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[ColdFront]

I hope you’re family is ok!

All good! Thanks!

 

[DanLarsen34]

You’re exactly right. I have family in Somerset and I texted them last night when that CC drop happened to the west. They were aware they were under a “warning” but no sirens were going off or anything and not even aware it was on the ground. I felt confident enough that it was on the ground to tell them that. It was in a tricky radar hole and it took NWS Jackson a while to move it to observed, but like you said, it was dark and a live stream would’ve done more than a text based warning

On the livestream point: This is why I appreciate people like Ryan Hall. Ryan has gotten much better at doing this since the early days of his channel. He’s surrounded himself with meteorologists and has gotten better himself at communicating these threats in real time. The fact that he has agreements with multiple chasers who are really good at catching these tornadoes has made his streams even greater.

I would argue, at this point, that his livestreams are likely more impactful than the weather channel since they basically don’t do this level of live coverage anymore.

Local stations can still have a greater impact, but not everyone is ABC 33/40 with James Spann

 

[DanLarsen34]

All good! Thanks!

I hope your family is okay as well. I can’t imagine the feeling of seeing a tornado of that caliber approaching.

 

[DanLarsen34]

Wasn’t just you, don’t worry. I knew the ceiling was high, but even I didn’t expect it.

I’m not sure any of us expected the ceiling of this event to be met. It was a difficult forecast for several reasons.

Ultimately, we had more discrete cells later in the evening than I recall any of the convective allowing models showing, even the HRRR. Hence, once the LLJ kicked in, we saw several of these storms take off

 

[Clancy]

I would argue, at this point, that his livestreams are likely more impactful than the weather channel since they basically don’t do this level of live coverage anymore.

Oh man, that's definitely not a hot take by any means, you're lucky if TWC actually covers a storm in your area at all.

I’m not sure any of us expected the ceiling of this event to be met. It was a difficult forecast for several reasons.

Ultimately, we had more discrete cells later in the evening than I recall any of the convective allowing models showing, even the HRRR. Hence, once the LLJ kicked in, we saw several of these storms take off

Indeed, while HRRR might've sniffed out nighttime supers a few runs, overall the picture by the CAMs was that by that late in the game, it'd be all MCS action.

 

[Maxis_s]

This looks to be a properly violent tornado. Very very sad.

It appears that every home in the center of the tornado's path was completely swept away. Normally with even some violent tornadoes you'll get a bit more inconsistent damage with some homes perhaps having some walls remaining but this one was very clearly consistently violent.

 

[AJS]

It appears that every home in the center of the tornado's path was completely swept away. Normally with even some violent tornadoes you'll get a bit more inconsistent damage with some homes perhaps having some walls remaining but this one was very clearly consistently violent.

Based on this video, it does seem like it began to weaken the more it went into town.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Oh man, that's definitely not a hot take by any means, you're lucky if TWC actually covers a storm in your area at all.

Indeed, while HRRR might've sniffed out nighttime supers a few runs, overall the picture by the CAMs was that by that late in the game, it'd be all MCS action.

Yup and instead, the whole day was discrete up until the tail end of the London sup

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

On the livestream point: This is why I appreciate people like Ryan Hall. Ryan has gotten much better at doing this since the early days of his channel. He’s surrounded himself with meteorologists and has gotten better himself at communicating these threats in real time. The fact that he has agreements with multiple chasers who are really good at catching these tornadoes has made his streams even greater.

I would argue, at this point, that his livestreams are likely more impactful than the weather channel since they basically don’t do this level of live coverage anymore.

Local stations can still have a greater impact, but not everyone is ABC 33/40 with James Spann

Ryan Hall does good work but I wish he wouldn’t issue his own products (Y’all Watches) that don’t align with the NWS. It opens the door to a near future, where every yahoo and streamer has their own sorts of warnings and everything and confuses the public. The fact that he puts those products behind a paywall on his weather app is even more troubling.

 

[Clancy]

Ryan Hall does good work but I wish he wouldn’t issue his own products (Y’all Watches) that don’t align with the NWS. It opens the door to a near future, where every yahoo and streamer has their own sorts of warnings and everything and confuses the public. The fact that he puts those products behind a paywall on his weather app is even more troubling.

I've issued a Clancy-exclusive Stop Parking Under Overpasses Warning for the entire Continental United States.

 

[Tanner]

This looks to be a properly violent tornado. Very very sad.

Just as bad if not worse than I thought this would be. Certainly a massive impact on a moderately large residential area. Wind rowing and tree debarking is insane.

 

[WhirlingWx]

Hearing of the two fatalities from Scott County, MO was also unfortunate. I was surprised given only a few damage photos I'd seen (which granted, did look significant). I thought it hadn't hit much, but that's not the case.

 

[zath]

Is anyone familiar with the build quality of the homes in London, KY? I've been looking over the damage photos/videos from London and the damage seems pretty intense. But, when I look closer at the homes that have been leveled/wiped off their foundation, I'm not seeing much in the way of foundation anchors. Combine this with roof geometry (i.e. looking at Google Street View and a lot of the houses in the area are simple two-slope roofs which are some of the weakest roofs when it comes to tornadoes plus it seems common to have large covered porches which will act as an entry point for winds to peel off the roof) and it may help explain some of the more intense looking damage. Once you lose the roof, you likely lose the whole house, especially if the house is built with a timber frame and lack of anchoring.

Another inconsistency is the lack of cars rolled/damage. Once I saw the house destruction, I for sure thought there would be a lot of cars rolled everywhere, but I only counted 2-3 cars that looked moved, while the majority seem in the same place they were parked. The tree damage is also a little inconsistent compared to the house destruction. While there are numerous trees that have had most of their branches lost, it looks like a lot of those trees were pine trees. Pine trees are notoriously brittle trees.

I am not in any way trying to diminish the damage done and fully understand that these people's lives have been completely flipped upside down, but I would not be surprised if the tornado is rated more mid-range instead of high-end. Granted, I am not there in person so take this with a grain of salt too; I'm just going on the available photos/videos coming out of the area - some of which are not the highest quality.

 

[Kds86z]

Hearing of the two fatalities from Scott County, MO was also unfortunate. I was surprised given only a few damage photos I'd seen (which granted, did look significant). I thought it hadn't hit much, but that's not the case.

Yeah man.. I was shocked given it was in daylight.

 

[AJS]

Is anyone familiar with the build quality of the homes in London, KY? I've been looking over the damage photos/videos from London and the damage seems pretty intense. But, when I look closer at the homes that have been leveled/wiped off their foundation, I'm not seeing much in the way of foundation anchors. Combine this with roof geometry (i.e. looking at Google Street View and a lot of the houses in the area are simple two-slope roofs which are some of the weakest roofs when it comes to tornadoes plus it seems common to have large covered porches which will act as an entry point for winds to peel off the roof) and it may help explain some of the more intense looking damage. Once you lose the roof, you likely lose the whole house, especially if the house is built with a timber frame and lack of anchoring.

Another inconsistency is the lack of cars rolled/damage. Once I saw the house destruction, I for sure thought there would be a lot of cars rolled everywhere, but I only counted 2-3 cars that looked moved, while the majority seem in the same place they were parked. The tree damage is also a little inconsistent compared to the house destruction. While there are numerous trees that have had most of their branches lost, it looks like a lot of those trees were pine trees. Pine trees are notoriously brittle trees.

I am not in any way trying to diminish the damage done and fully understand that these people's lives have been completely flipped upside down, but I would not be surprised if the tornado is rated more mid-range instead of high-end. Granted, I am not there in person so take this with a grain of salt too; I'm just going on the available photos/videos coming out of the area - some of which are not the highest quality.

It’s definitely not what I would call “ High end “ but the damage photos and videos we currently have no doubt point to a tornado of violent intensity.

 

[Kds86z]

It’s definitely not what I would call “ High end “ but the damage photos and videos we currently have no doubt point to a tornado of violent intensity.

Weaker than rolling fork ey?

 

[ColdFront]

Is anyone familiar with the build quality of the homes in London, KY? I've been looking over the damage photos/videos from London and the damage seems pretty intense. But, when I look closer at the homes that have been leveled/wiped off their foundation, I'm not seeing much in the way of foundation anchors. Combine this with roof geometry (i.e. looking at Google Street View and a lot of the houses in the area are simple two-slope roofs which are some of the weakest roofs when it comes to tornadoes plus it seems common to have large covered porches which will act as an entry point for winds to peel off the roof) and it may help explain some of the more intense looking damage. Once you lose the roof, you likely lose the whole house, especially if the house is built with a timber frame and lack of anchoring.

Another inconsistency is the lack of cars rolled/damage. Once I saw the house destruction, I for sure thought there would be a lot of cars rolled everywhere, but I only counted 2-3 cars that looked moved, while the majority seem in the same place they were parked. The tree damage is also a little inconsistent compared to the house destruction. While there are numerous trees that have had most of their branches lost, it looks like a lot of those trees were pine trees. Pine trees are notoriously brittle trees.

I am not in any way trying to diminish the damage done and fully understand that these people's lives have been completely flipped upside down, but I would not be surprised if the tornado is rated more mid-range instead of high-end. Granted, I am not there in person so take this with a grain of salt too; I'm just going on the available photos/videos coming out of the area - some of which are not the highest quality.

You’re just not going to get high quality, above code construction in KY anywhere except the metro areas of the larger cities here. Even then, it may not be enough to pass the muster and scrutiny of the current iteration of the scale.

Like I said in my earlier post, the more affluent homes in these counties are usually off to theirselves and are on large acreage properties and not necessarily converged close together in subdivisions.

Regardless of rating, because I do think the final rating of this tornado will have more questions asked than answers, this was a violent tornado.

 

[AJS]

Weaker than rolling fork ey?

I can say the damage is a bit weaker than Rolling Fork with what we have available. Regardless, still a gut wrenching tragedy.

 

[Clancy]

You’re just not going to get high quality, above code construction in KY anywhere except the metro areas of the larger cities here. Even then, it may not be enough to pass the muster and scrutiny of the current iteration of the scale.

Like I said in my earlier post, the more affluent homes in these counties are usually off to theirselves and are on large acreage properties and not necessarily converged close together in subdivisions.

Eastern KY is one of the lowest-income sectors in the country. You're gonna have a lot of older homes out there in those neighborhoods that were hit.

 

[AJS]

Hearing of the two fatalities from Scott County, MO was also unfortunate. I was surprised given only a few damage photos I'd seen (which granted, did look significant). I thought it hadn't hit much, but that's not the case.

That actually looks really intense. What tornado was this?