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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

Ozonelayer said:
So far, I believe we have 2 EF-4+ candidates. Marion, IL and Somerset-London, KY.
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Given the precedent set with Bakersfield and Lake City, and Jackson’s inexperience with events like this, I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if the latter gets an EF3 rating. Contextuals make all the difference here
 
OH-IOan said:
Given the precedent set with Bakersfield and Lake City, and Jackson’s inexperience with events like this, I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if the latter gets an EF3 rating. Contextuals make all the difference here
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I mean, true but the contextuals are there this time. Debarking, windrowing, granulation on both tornadoes. If another NWS office helps out then I bet the latter will get EF-4.
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
The truth of this situation is important, and the entire conversation could've happened without insults. NWS Jackson is understaffed, but the offensive remark was questioning the office's competence as a result of those cuts. As long as we're pointlessly speculating about why a Tor E wasn't issued, I'd say it was because velocities didn't reach the required threshold, or size. It's not like they weren't watching that cell relentlessly like the rest of us. I'd also bet they wish the weather community was more aware of how undermanned and overworked they are, and there's no harm in spreading that info... because it's the truth...

Some more truth. NOAA has been forced to cut tracking for billion dollar disasters, and FEMA has also been mostly DOGEd, so the true financial costs of these storms will remain a mystery. None of this info is political, it's reality, and it's important for anyone who cares about keeping communities safe and supported during weather disasters to be aware of it.
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Guys, there IS a political thread available for ALL opinions.
 
US_Highway15 said:
Not to be that guy, but I don't know if issuing a Tornado Emergency would've changed anything in terms of saving lives. I mean the WEA's message description on a TOR-E already downplays the significance of the situation at hand, which absolutely needs to change.

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I think I agree with this point. As is the case with so many things these days, people may not have been as locked in to paying attention to this threat as they likely needed to be yesterday. Issuing a tornado emergency 5 minutes before a violent tornado probably doesn’t change much, especially for those who live in mobile homes or some other vulnerable structure where they need time to get to a more substantial shelter. Having driven through some of these communities before, trailer homes are quite common in Southern KY.

Ryan Hall had someone in Louisville yesterday during his broadcast who was talking with locals there. They were going about their days completely unaware of the potential tornadic threat they were facing in the evening. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the case elsewhere in the state outside of communities that have dealt with major tornadoes since 2021.

It also doesn’t help that this part of Kentucky is not accustomed to this kind of threat AND that this violent tornado happened at night. There’s a reason why tornadoes, in general, are much deadlier at night.

It’s absolutely a tragedy, and as our attention gets pulled in so many different directions as a society now, I think it may continue to get harder and harder to raise awareness in situations like this.
 
Clancy said:
Wow, that's some truly horrific damage. Wide swaths and a number of exposed foundations. And it had to happen after dark.
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Think the LLJ helped sustain that tornado and keep it on the ground longer than some of the daytime storms. That, and its inflow region was completely free of junk and it finally took an outflow boundary to kill it.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
I think I agree with this point. As is the case with so many things these days, people may not have been as locked in to paying attention to this threat as they likely needed to be yesterday. Issuing a tornado emergency 5 minutes before a violent tornado probably doesn’t change much, especially for those who live in mobile homes or some other vulnerable structure where they need time to get to a more substantial shelter. Having driven through some of these communities before, trailer homes are quite common in Southern KY.

Ryan Hall had someone in Louisville yesterday during his broadcast who was talking with locals there. They were going about their days completely unaware of the potential tornadic threat they were facing in the evening. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the case elsewhere in the state outside of communities that have dealt with major tornadoes since 2021.

It also doesn’t help that this part of Kentucky is not accustomed to this kind of threat AND that this violent tornado happened at night. There’s a reason why tornadoes, in general, are much deadlier at night.

It’s absolutely a tragedy, and as our attention gets pulled in so many different directions as a society now, I think it may continue to get harder and harder to raise awareness in situations like this.
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My take on this is that it generally doesn’t really matter what level a TORW is, and that it doesn’t change the outcome of what happens.

Meteorologist and weather enthusiasts underestimate just how little the common folk pay attention to the weather. It’s no coincidence that even while under a TORE you still see people going on about their day like nothings happening.

Livestreams of the tornadoes helps get people to take things seriously a million times better than any TORW. But even still, instead of paying attention to the weather, the vast majority are just going about their lives.

And yeah, even if people paid attention, wether they survive or not is almost entirely dependent on the construction of their homes.

That’s just how reality is in the end.
 
jiharris0220 said:
My take on this is that it generally doesn’t really matter what level a TORW is, and that it doesn’t change the outcome of what happens.

Meteorologist and weather enthusiasts underestimate just how little the common folk pay attention to the weather. It’s no coincidence that even while under a TORE you still see people going on about their day like nothings happening.

Livestreams of the tornadoes helps get people to take things seriously a million times better than any TORW. But even still, instead of paying attention to the weather, the vast majority are just going about their lives.

And yeah, even if people paid attention, wether they survive or not is almost entirely dependent on the construction of their homes.

That’s just how reality is in the end.
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You’re exactly right. I have family in Somerset and I texted them last night when that CC drop happened to the west. They were aware they were under a “warning” but no sirens were going off or anything and not even aware it was on the ground. I felt confident enough that it was on the ground to tell them that. It was in a tricky radar hole and it took NWS Jackson a while to move it to observed, but like you said, it was dark and a live stream would’ve done more than a text based warning
 
ColdFront said:
You’re exactly right. I have family in Somerset and I texted them last night when that CC drop happened to the west. They were aware they were under a “warning” but no sirens were going off or anything and not even aware it was on the ground. I felt confident enough that it was on the ground to tell them that. It was in a tricky radar hole and it took NWS Jackson a while to move it to observed, but like you said, it was dark and a live stream would’ve done more than a text based warning
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I hope you’re family is ok!
 
ColdFront said:
You’re exactly right. I have family in Somerset and I texted them last night when that CC drop happened to the west. They were aware they were under a “warning” but no sirens were going off or anything and not even aware it was on the ground. I felt confident enough that it was on the ground to tell them that. It was in a tricky radar hole and it took NWS Jackson a while to move it to observed, but like you said, it was dark and a live stream would’ve done more than a text based warning
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On the livestream point: This is why I appreciate people like Ryan Hall. Ryan has gotten much better at doing this since the early days of his channel. He’s surrounded himself with meteorologists and has gotten better himself at communicating these threats in real time. The fact that he has agreements with multiple chasers who are really good at catching these tornadoes has made his streams even greater.

I would argue, at this point, that his livestreams are likely more impactful than the weather channel since they basically don’t do this level of live coverage anymore.

Local stations can still have a greater impact, but not everyone is ABC 33/40 with James Spann
 
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