Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[Ozonelayer]

Any word out of the areas south of Nashville, IN? That’s where we saw the TBSS.

I only heard one thing over a scanner about extensive damage to homes. That's all I can find.

 

[ColdFront]

So, I was asleep during the madness - and the bullsh*t - last night, because I didn't have much sleep the night before. With my health, I have to have sleep. But I received numerous messages last night about the political nonsense in a thread dedicated to an - at the time ONGOING - tornado outbreak. I am not wasting my time going through the thread deleting messages or giving warnings because there's no point. Some members here don't listen to me - yet they do other mods and admins - and think they can say whatever they want without consequence, and quite frankly, I don't have the time, energy or desire to deal with it anymore. I think I will be talking to Wes about finding someone else to do this and go back to just being a member.

I thought the discussion was in very poor taste because it was in the middle of the tornado. I will say Michelle, you’re the only mod that’s consistently present and makes an attempt to at least moderate the site, which I do appreciate. The other mods are rarely ever on here or actively moderate the threads. Like the site was broken for a week and it was crickets from them. I do think there needs to be a discussion about additional mods being brought on board that can be more present. Political discussion can have its place and time, but last night Was not that time.

 

[Ozonelayer]

So far, I believe we have 2 EF-4+ candidates. Marion, IL and Somerset-London, KY.

 

[AJS]

So far, I believe we have 2 EF-4+ candidates. Marion, IL and Somerset-London, KY.

I’d add the tornado south of Nashville, IN if damage photos match up with the radar intensity.

 

[OH-IOan]

So far, I believe we have 2 EF-4+ candidates. Marion, IL and Somerset-London, KY.

Given the precedent set with Bakersfield and Lake City, and Jackson’s inexperience with events like this, I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if the latter gets an EF3 rating. Contextuals make all the difference here

 

[Ozonelayer]

I’d add the tornado south of Nashville, IN if damage photos match up with the radar intensity.

Same. We havent seen the damage but it was very intense on radar.

 

[jiharris0220]

Here’s how yesterday verified so far. Excellent job from the SPC and NWS as always.

 

[AJS]

Here’s how yesterday verified so far. Excellent job from the SPC and NWS as always.
View attachment 42065

They’ve honestly nailed most of the forecasts this year.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Given the precedent set with Bakersfield and Lake City, and Jackson’s inexperience with events like this, I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if the latter gets an EF3 rating. Contextuals make all the difference here

I mean, true but the contextuals are there this time. Debarking, windrowing, granulation on both tornadoes. If another NWS office helps out then I bet the latter will get EF-4.

 

[Aaron Rider]

Today would’ve verified a high risk most likely View attachment 42033

Wait there was one in central PA and some east of the bay???

 

[Aaron Rider]

The truth of this situation is important, and the entire conversation could've happened without insults. NWS Jackson is understaffed, but the offensive remark was questioning the office's competence as a result of those cuts. As long as we're pointlessly speculating about why a Tor E wasn't issued, I'd say it was because velocities didn't reach the required threshold, or size. It's not like they weren't watching that cell relentlessly like the rest of us. I'd also bet they wish the weather community was more aware of how undermanned and overworked they are, and there's no harm in spreading that info... because it's the truth...

Some more truth. NOAA has been forced to cut tracking for billion dollar disasters, and FEMA has also been mostly DOGEd, so the true financial costs of these storms will remain a mystery. None of this info is political, it's reality, and it's important for anyone who cares about keeping communities safe and supported during weather disasters to be aware of it.

Guys, there IS a political thread available for ALL opinions.

 

[DanLarsen34]

Not to be that guy, but I don't know if issuing a Tornado Emergency would've changed anything in terms of saving lives. I mean the WEA's message description on a TOR-E already downplays the significance of the situation at hand, which absolutely needs to change.

View attachment 42064

I think I agree with this point. As is the case with so many things these days, people may not have been as locked in to paying attention to this threat as they likely needed to be yesterday. Issuing a tornado emergency 5 minutes before a violent tornado probably doesn’t change much, especially for those who live in mobile homes or some other vulnerable structure where they need time to get to a more substantial shelter. Having driven through some of these communities before, trailer homes are quite common in Southern KY.

Ryan Hall had someone in Louisville yesterday during his broadcast who was talking with locals there. They were going about their days completely unaware of the potential tornadic threat they were facing in the evening. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the case elsewhere in the state outside of communities that have dealt with major tornadoes since 2021.

It also doesn’t help that this part of Kentucky is not accustomed to this kind of threat AND that this violent tornado happened at night. There’s a reason why tornadoes, in general, are much deadlier at night.

It’s absolutely a tragedy, and as our attention gets pulled in so many different directions as a society now, I think it may continue to get harder and harder to raise awareness in situations like this.

 

[Clancy]

This looks to be a properly violent tornado. Very very sad.

Wow, that's some truly horrific damage. Wide swaths and a number of exposed foundations. And it had to happen after dark.

 

[ColdFront]

Wow, that's some truly horrific damage. Wide swaths and a number of exposed foundations. And it had to happen after dark.

Think the LLJ helped sustain that tornado and keep it on the ground longer than some of the daytime storms. That, and its inflow region was completely free of junk and it finally took an outflow boundary to kill it.

 

[AJS]

Wow, that's some truly horrific damage. Wide swaths and a number of exposed foundations. And it had to happen after dark.

It was awful to witness. Deadliest tornado in the US since Rolling Fork.

 

[jiharris0220]

I think I agree with this point. As is the case with so many things these days, people may not have been as locked in to paying attention to this threat as they likely needed to be yesterday. Issuing a tornado emergency 5 minutes before a violent tornado probably doesn’t change much, especially for those who live in mobile homes or some other vulnerable structure where they need time to get to a more substantial shelter. Having driven through some of these communities before, trailer homes are quite common in Southern KY.

Ryan Hall had someone in Louisville yesterday during his broadcast who was talking with locals there. They were going about their days completely unaware of the potential tornadic threat they were facing in the evening. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was the case elsewhere in the state outside of communities that have dealt with major tornadoes since 2021.

It also doesn’t help that this part of Kentucky is not accustomed to this kind of threat AND that this violent tornado happened at night. There’s a reason why tornadoes, in general, are much deadlier at night.

It’s absolutely a tragedy, and as our attention gets pulled in so many different directions as a society now, I think it may continue to get harder and harder to raise awareness in situations like this.

My take on this is that it generally doesn’t really matter what level a TORW is, and that it doesn’t change the outcome of what happens.

Meteorologist and weather enthusiasts underestimate just how little the common folk pay attention to the weather. It’s no coincidence that even while under a TORE you still see people going on about their day like nothings happening.

Livestreams of the tornadoes helps get people to take things seriously a million times better than any TORW. But even still, instead of paying attention to the weather, the vast majority are just going about their lives.

And yeah, even if people paid attention, wether they survive or not is almost entirely dependent on the construction of their homes.

That’s just how reality is in the end.

 

[Schoeppeya]

Here to eat crow. Yesterday WAY overperformed what I thought the ceiling was.

 

[AJS]

Here to eat crow. Yesterday WAY overperformed what I thought the ceiling was.

Wasn’t just you, don’t worry. I knew the ceiling was high, but even I didn’t expect it.

 

[ColdFront]

My take on this is that it generally doesn’t really matter what level a TORW is, and that it doesn’t change the outcome of what happens.

Meteorologist and weather enthusiasts underestimate just how little the common folk pay attention to the weather. It’s no coincidence that even while under a TORE you still see people going on about their day like nothings happening.

Livestreams of the tornadoes helps get people to take things seriously a million times better than any TORW. But even still, instead of paying attention to the weather, the vast majority are just going about their lives.

And yeah, even if people paid attention, wether they survive or not is almost entirely dependent on the construction of their homes.

That’s just how reality is in the end.

You’re exactly right. I have family in Somerset and I texted them last night when that CC drop happened to the west. They were aware they were under a “warning” but no sirens were going off or anything and not even aware it was on the ground. I felt confident enough that it was on the ground to tell them that. It was in a tricky radar hole and it took NWS Jackson a while to move it to observed, but like you said, it was dark and a live stream would’ve done more than a text based warning

 

[AJS]

You’re exactly right. I have family in Somerset and I texted them last night when that CC drop happened to the west. They were aware they were under a “warning” but no sirens were going off or anything and not even aware it was on the ground. I felt confident enough that it was on the ground to tell them that. It was in a tricky radar hole and it took NWS Jackson a while to move it to observed, but like you said, it was dark and a live stream would’ve done more than a text based warning

I hope you’re family is ok!