Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025

[notsoencrypted]

Though severe weather is not expected, thunder rumbling in Madison once again this afternoon. Now it feels like May...

And we actually now have a severe warning for western/northwestern Dane county. Maybe I'll actually get some rain today, unlike yesterday.

 

[Jbop]

Mesoscale Discussion 0819
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...much of northeast Texas into much of southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 162010Z - 162215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms appear likely later this
afternoon, with large hail and locally damaging gusts the most
likely threats.

DISCUSSION...The primary surface front currently extends from near
Ft. Smith AR southwestward into parts of North Texas, with very
strong instability in place. A special 19Z FWD sounding shows MLCAPE
of 3250 J/kg, along with 0-6 km shear around 55 kt.

Weak convergence along the front and continued heating should result
in sporadic storm development along this boundary, and the
environment will supercells producing very large hail. Visible
imagery shows towering CU along portions of the front, and
initiation appears likely in the next couple hours.

 

[US_Highway15]

Omg Brandon Copic just got a flat tire as he was chasing north towards the storm around Bell City. Had a rotating wall cloud in front of him and everything.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Is this radar glitchiness or is this signature starting to get reaaall concerning?

 

[Tennie]

Reed Timmer's stream just showed one heck of an inflow band on the storm that he's currently chasing:

 

[JPWX]

To add what @Clancy said, the 19z HRRR, 18z 3km NAM, and 18z RRFS all have a severe line of storms moving thru North MS between midnight thru 1am.

 

[Clancy]

Some strong SRH is in place over those cells in Missouri. It will expand eastward with time, potentially leading to the focus for strong tornado risk to evolve over parts of Illinois, Kentucky and Indiana. Structural evolution will be important to watch - how many storms remain discrete, and whether or not cells can persist out ahead of a probable QLCS later this evening will influence chances for strong tornadoes.

 

[OH-IOan]

Apparently the sirens never went off in St. Louis, is that verifiable? Luckily from what I’ve seen there wasn’t much considerable damage, it seemed confined to foliage and roofs.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Is this radar glitchiness or is this signature starting to get reaaall concerning?

View attachment 41856

It's radar glitchiness, been a lot of it today

 

[Kds86z]

I’m sitting here riding out severe storm. Is a tree on a car.

 

[Tennie]

The latest HRRR run wants to form a solitary supercell over eastern Kentucky later today/tonight. We'll have to see how that plays out in reality.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That tornado warning near Bell City MO has a hook on it

 

[TornadoFan]

Brad Arnold's stream.

 

[Tennie]

Brad Arnold has some tornadogenesis on his stream!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Brad Arnold's stream.
View attachment 41864

Where?????!

(It's the one I was just saying has a hook)

 

[Ozonelayer]

Bell City is OTG now. Storm Runner Media has a full view of it. It isn't fully condensed yet.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[NorthGaWeather]

That tornado warning near Bell City MO has a hook on it

TDS on next scan.

Edit: CC not pronounced on proceeding scan. But definitely TOG and why CC can't be relied on every time.