notsoencrypted
Member
And we actually now have a severe warning for western/northwestern Dane county. Maybe I'll actually get some rain today, unlike yesterday.
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Severe Threat May 15-16, 2025
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Mesoscale Discussion 0819
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Areas affected...much of northeast Texas into much of southern
Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 162010Z - 162215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms appear likely later this
afternoon, with large hail and locally damaging gusts the most
likely threats.
DISCUSSION...The primary surface front currently extends from near
Ft. Smith AR southwestward into parts of North Texas, with very
strong instability in place. A special 19Z FWD sounding shows MLCAPE
of 3250 J/kg, along with 0-6 km shear around 55 kt.
Weak convergence along the front and continued heating should result
in sporadic storm development along this boundary, and the
environment will supercells producing very large hail. Visible
imagery shows towering CU along portions of the front, and
initiation appears likely in the next couple hours.
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025
Areas affected...much of northeast Texas into much of southern
Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 162010Z - 162215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms appear likely later this
afternoon, with large hail and locally damaging gusts the most
likely threats.
DISCUSSION...The primary surface front currently extends from near
Ft. Smith AR southwestward into parts of North Texas, with very
strong instability in place. A special 19Z FWD sounding shows MLCAPE
of 3250 J/kg, along with 0-6 km shear around 55 kt.
Weak convergence along the front and continued heating should result
in sporadic storm development along this boundary, and the
environment will supercells producing very large hail. Visible
imagery shows towering CU along portions of the front, and
initiation appears likely in the next couple hours.
US_Highway15
Member
Omg Brandon Copic just got a flat tire as he was chasing north towards the storm around Bell City. Had a rotating wall cloud in front of him and everything.
Is this radar glitchiness or is this signature starting to get reaaall concerning?
To add what @Clancy said, the 19z HRRR, 18z 3km NAM, and 18z RRFS all have a severe line of storms moving thru North MS between midnight thru 1am.
Attachments
Some strong SRH is in place over those cells in Missouri. It will expand eastward with time, potentially leading to the focus for strong tornado risk to evolve over parts of Illinois, Kentucky and Indiana. Structural evolution will be important to watch - how many storms remain discrete, and whether or not cells can persist out ahead of a probable QLCS later this evening will influence chances for strong tornadoes.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Apparently the sirens never went off in St. Louis, is that verifiable? Luckily from what I’ve seen there wasn’t much considerable damage, it seemed confined to foliage and roofs.
TornadoFan
Member
Kds86z
Member
It's radar glitchiness, been a lot of it today
Kds86z
Member
That tornado warning near Bell City MO has a hook on it
TornadoFan
Member
Brad Arnold's stream.
Ozonelayer
Member
Bell City is OTG now. Storm Runner Media has a full view of it. It isn't fully condensed yet.
TornadoFan
Member
NorthGaWeather
Member
TDS on next scan.
Edit: CC not pronounced on proceeding scan. But definitely TOG and why CC can't be relied on every time.