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Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

Blizzard1
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:26 AM


jpk1292000, on 27 April 2011 - 10:20 AM, said:

It kind of feels like supercell storms will eventually begin forming south ahead of the line moving into Alabama in the warm sector as the atmosphere destabilizes behind the early morning MCS. Regardless of the exact convective evolution, it feels like a very dangerous afternoon, perhaps the most dangerous over Alabama and west Georgia since 4/8/98.
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Maybe worse than 4/8/98 I'm afraid. On the ABC33/40 blog they noted that the EHI on 4/8/98 was a 6 whereas today's in up to 10+ in many areas in North AL. That reference point should alarm people, especially those who were in the area when that red letter event occured. I remember it like yesterday so when you compare the 6 then to a 10+ now...yikes!
Edited by Blizzard1, 27 April 2011 - 10:27 AM.


 
wxfan22
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:26 AM

trency911, on 27 April 2011 - 10:19 AM, said:

I would strongly urge you to not think that it is over, in my greatest of opinions.
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Thanks I just noticed surface based capes are rapidly improving across southern arkansas, the MS Delta, and Northern LA.......Its amazing how quickly the atmosphere is recovering. We are sitting at 55 degrees in Oxford, MS with a rapidly destabilizing airmass just to our southwest.
 
bingcrosbyb
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:28 AM

Just got back from traveling Hwy 280 from Shelby - Jefferson Co. Got off on some of the side roads to check damage. Looks like a bomb went off in some places. Has to be thousands of trees down in the Birmingham area. Some neighborhoods completely blocked off. Good luck to Alabama Power crews.
Edited by bingcrosbyb, 27 April 2011 - 10:28 AM.

 
trency911
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:31 AM

wxfan22, on 27 April 2011 - 10:26 AM, said:

Thanks I just noticed surface based capes are rapidly improving across southern arkansas, the MS Delta, and Northern LA.......Its amazing how quickly the atmosphere is recovering. We are sitting at 55 degrees in Oxford, MS with a rapidly destabilizing airmass just to our southwest.
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Yes instability is beginning to increase. On SPC meso page 1000 J/KG fixing to lift into the Atlanta area, 1000 J/KG south of Birmingham, but with sun coming out across Central Al expect instability to begin to greatly increase, and the same thing for Mississippi as well.
 
Guest_duckfetchr_*
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:35 AM

bingcrosbyb, on 27 April 2011 - 10:28 AM, said:

Just got back from traveling Hwy 280 from Shelby - Jefferson Co. Got off on some of the side roads to check damage. Looks like a bomb went off in some places. Has to be thousands of trees down in the Birmingham area. Some neighborhoods completely blocked off. Good luck to Alabama Power crews.
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twas a looooong drive up 280 this morning from my house to I-459...
 
Tyler Penland
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:36 AM

Sun out in full force here. Was cool when I went in for my precalc final but now its hot and muggy. The air has that "I'm fixing to explode" feel to it. DP: 64ºand rising.
 
Robby
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:38 AM

Just got off the phone with a Salvation Army worker who responded to Marshall Co., Ala. We're basically looking at a significant swath of damage in this area (NE Ala.) running through Walker-Cullman-Marshall-Jackson Counties. No power for most folks around the damage path and a massive amount of damage to property caused by falling trees. SA is having a hard time getting in there.

I told her more was on the way and she simply said, "I know. I know."
 
Guest_duckfetchr_*
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:40 AM

120 knots gate to gate on GR3 for the cell near Phil Campbell and Hackleburg
 
djbarker
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:41 AM
STRMCHSR, on 27 April 2011 - 08:22 AM, said:

Fairly significant sounding from JAN this am.

<<image not archived>>

Just need to add some CAPE to get the party started.
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LCH and LIX looks even more ominous than that. Hate that BMX's balloon went up in the aftermath of the QLCS that went through...it's not representative at all of what the atmosphere will be there in 2-4 hours. Wonder if there's another planned.
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:45 AM

djbarker, on 27 April 2011 - 10:41 AM, said:

LCH and LIX looks even more ominous than that. Hate that BMX's balloon went up in the aftermath of the QLCS that went through...it's not representative at all of what the atmosphere will be there in 2-4 hours. Wonder if there's another planned.
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I can almost guarantee there will be 18Z soundings for JAN, BMX, BNA, and FFC at least.
 
FoulWeather
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:46 AM

Is the main threat still in Arkansas/west Miss.?
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:48 AM

FoulWeather, on 27 April 2011 - 10:46 AM, said:

Is the main threat still in Arkansas/west Miss.?
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I think the main threat starts in the next few hours... either in eastern Arkansas/Louisiana... and/or western Mississippi. The greatest tornado threat today is in the well-placed 13Z High Risk though
 
FoulWeather
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:49 AM

Fred Gossage, on 27 April 2011 - 10:48 AM, said:

I think the main threat starts in the next few hours... either in eastern Arkansas/Louisiana... and/or western Mississippi. The greatest tornado threat today is in the well-placed 13Z High Risk though.
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Man, what a day.
 
trency911
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:50 AM

FFC update...Already 2000+ Cape.

Quote

FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND HAS
SUBSIDED. STORMS DIED FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE
TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. 12Z FFC SOUNDING ALREADY SHOWS
2300 J/KG CAPE ACROSS THE AREA AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR. HIGH
SHEAR AND CAPE PROGGED THROUGH TONIGHT AND WITH THESE HIGH
PARAMETERS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS
EVENING CONTINUES. BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL REMAINS
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
HAS A CHANCE TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

THIS NEXT ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE
NORTHWEST BORDER AROUND 6PM AND SHOULD GENERALLY CLEAR OUT CENTRAL
GEORGIA BY 8AM THURSDAY.

QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO CUT BACK ON SEVERE WEATHER WORDING
FOR THIS MORNING...BUT INCREASE WORDING FOR THIS EVENING.
 
StormStalker
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:50 AM

High winds with the storms as they moved through here. I assume there will be more trees down. Lots of rain coming down. Flash flooding will soon be an issue I think.
 
South AL Wx
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:51 AM

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0620
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1045 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN LA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS
INTO AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271545Z - 271715Z

A LONG LEAD-TIME/LONG DURATION PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS /PDS/ TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SOON...MOST CERTAIN ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS.

VISIBLE SATELLITE/SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IMPLY RELATIVELY
QUICK AIRMASS RECOVERY/DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING FROM LA INTO
MS/AL THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING. THIS IS THE CASE NOT ONLY FOR IN THE
VICINITY OF EARLY MORNING WEST-EAST OUTFLOW ACROSS MS/AL...WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS HAVE EACH INCREASED 8-12F OVER THE
PAST 2 HR...BUT ALSO IN THE WAKE OF AN APPARENT WAVE-LIKE FEATURE
SPREADING EASTWARD CROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS/LA AS A CU FIELD
OTHERWISE CONTINUES TO INCREASE/MATURE ACROSS NORTHEAST LA.

AIDED BY STRONG AMPLIFICATION/INTENSIFICATION OF AN INCREASINGLY
NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED JET STREAK LATER TODAY...A
VOLATILE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON
IS WELL SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS SEVERAL RECENT
HRRR RUNS AND THE 12Z WRF-NMM. SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE RUC/12Z NAM...ACCENTUATED BY VERY LONG/STRONGLY
CURVED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORT THE NOTION OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA.

Edited by andyhb, 28 December 2012 - 05:58 PM.
 
campamy
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:53 AM

EPB in Chattanooga reporting 70,000 without power! They are releasing schools early in my county and all surrounding counties now.
 
will2013
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:54 AM

Yikes.. not gonna get much sleep today :\ .. Power STILL out for me in Florence.
 
bingcrosbyb
Posted 27 April 2011 - 10:54 AM
Here we go. After all the model watching, looks like the parameters are not going to back off. I was really hoping last night they would back off even slightly.

Edited by andyhb, 28 December 2012 - 05:58 PM.

 
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