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Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:31 PM

reports of significant damage are surfacing here in Morehouse parish ...boy oh boy...the only (another tornado warning now
likely to move east of me...)thing we needed as we lost over500 jobs two years ago from the papermill closing....
Edited by mwbwhorton, 26 April 2011 - 11:38 PM.

 
steveklein
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:32 PM

if those storms over northern LA do hold together (for the most part) and move across northern alabama, would that tend to partially stabilize the area for later in the day?

it seems hard for me to imagine things getting too bad from a tornado standpoint north of I-40, especially up in Kentucky where incredible rainfall has persisted for hours.
 
aarontabr
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:33 PM

It looks like every county covered by Paducah is under a flash flood warning.
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:36 PM

steveklein, on 26 April 2011 - 11:32 PM, said:

if those storms over northern LA do hold together (for the most part) and move across northern alabama, would that tend to partially stabilize the area for later in the day?

it seems hard for me to imagine things getting too bad from a tornado standpoint north of I-40, especially up in Kentucky where incredible rainfall has persisted for hours.
Click to expand...


If they were to stick around for a while tomorrow, it is very possible. However, the storms north of the Louisiana supercell cluster are already weakening, which reduces the chances of this being a huge bowing MCS with a large, organized cold pool... and when you look at earlier panels on that 4 km SPC WRF... it is trailing reality by a few to several hours.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/refd_1000m_f03.gif

This is a pretty common bias in the model. If we don't have an organized MCS with an associated cold pool, it will be much easier for these storms to gain latitude overnight as the upper winds gain a more SW to NE component... if they don't weaken from running into increasing capping. The fact that we're not seeing an organizing MCS... but rather a cluster of supercells on the warm front... while things north of it are weakening... is an encouraging sign from a destabilization standpoint.
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:37 PM

duckfetchr, on 26 April 2011 - 11:34 PM, said:

Which part is a mess exactly and why would it affect the high end threat?
Click to expand...


It has a big bow echo blowing through much of north central Alabama during the first half of the day.

 
ARCC
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:37 PM

2z HRRR even less junk convection and this should scare the poop out of you.


<<image not saved>>
 
steelers
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:37 PM

I just wanted to make one little point. Whether there is junk convection or not, I hope people will stay alert. Last year, April 24th, was supposed to be a high severe/tornado threat for the whole day. If you remember, yes, there were several tornadoes, but nothing near what was forecast, because we had a lot of junk convection morning and afternoon. However, that eventually eroded, and things turned nasty. The tornado that hit Parrish, AL dropped at 9:59 P.M. It was an EF-3...the damage path was 29.5 miles long. Now, things could have been a lot worse if that convection hadn't been around...but, once it cleared, and it was late afternoon when it did, things still were dangerous...thanks...and now I am off my soap box.
 
Guest_duckfetchr_*
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:39 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 11:37 PM, said:

It has a big bow echo blowing through much of north central Alabama during the first half of the day.
Click to expand...

Gotcha...I went back and looked at the simulated reflectivity and saw it after I knew what I was looking for. I guess that would "use up" a lot of our instability if it happened?
 
ARCC
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:40 PM

That isn't all, check this sucker out.

<<Images not saved>>
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:40 PM

raining tadpoles n crawdads right now ...LOL...
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:40 PM


duckfetchr, on 26 April 2011 - 11:39 PM, said:

Gotcha...I went back and looked at the simulated reflectivity and saw it after I knew what I was looking for. I guess that would "use up" a lot of our instability if it happened?
Click to expand...


It would. It just remains to be seen whether that actually happens or not.
 
Guest_duckfetchr_*
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:42 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 11:40 PM, said:

It would. It just remains to be seen whether that actually happens or not.
Click to expand...

heh...isn't that what we're always up against?
 
aarontabr
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:44 PM

So is morning crapvection our friend or not tomorrow?
 
SWL
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:45 PM

duckfetchr, on 26 April 2011 - 11:42 PM, said:

heh...isn't that what we're always up against?
Click to expand...


While we're waiting for all hell to break loose here...

AT 1205 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILKES-BARRE TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF LEHIGHTON TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEHIGHTON...MOVING EAST AT 450 MPH.
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:46 PM

aarontabr, on 26 April 2011 - 11:44 PM, said:

So is morning crapvection our friend or not tomorrow?
Click to expand...


Again, as stated, it depends on where it is... how widespread it is... and how long it lingers. The more widespread or longer lasting it is... the more stable areas affected by it will be. However, if it moves on out... don't assume you're out of danger just because you had morning activity.
 
Guest_duckfetchr_*
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:47 PM

SWL, on 26 April 2011 - 11:45 PM, said:

While we're waiting for all hell to break loose here...

AT 1205 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WILKES-BARRE TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF LEHIGHTON TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LEHIGHTON...MOVING EAST AT 450 MPH.
Click to expand...



good...this stuff will be gone before I go to bed then :p
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:49 PM

there are tvs' everywhere here atm check out the radars if you want some wild weather here in ne Loiusiana...media is reporting significant tornado damage southeast of bastrop
now,the only populated ares there are Collingston,and Oak Ridge two tiny farming villages....
Edited by mwbwhorton, 26 April 2011 - 11:55 PM.

 
ZackH
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:51 PM

The RUC helicity values for 15 Z tomorrow are some of the craziest I've seen! 0-1 km helicity values up to 400-600 m2/s2 in some places with 0-3 km values up 800-1000 m2/s2 ??
 
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