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Archive Severe threat April 26-27, 2011

dunkman
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:43 PM

mwbwhorton, on 26 April 2011 - 10:36 PM, said:

OK guys im in a tornado warning now will report back after warning expires...
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Definitely looks like there could be a rain-wrapped tornado that will pass just south of town. Regardless, almost 50k top on that cell and 2" hail...stay safe.
 
aarontabr
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:47 PM

Look at all that heavy rain over western Kentucky.
 
steelers
Posted 26 April 2011 - 10:51 PM

EquusStorm, on 26 April 2011 - 09:59 PM, said:

So the Vilonia area tornado was given a preliminary rating of EF-2? Heh, I figured the damage would be slightly less devastating than originally feared... still could easily go up to EF-3 once they have a break in the storms to do a thorough survey. Still, that's a lot of deaths in one little area. :[ Maybe there won't be any fatalities confirmed from today's event.

Also, adding to everyone else's thoughts... tomorrow's parameters scare me a lot, heh. Doesn't look like Walker county will escape from this one unscathed.
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Well, I live in Parrish...and unfortunately, Sunday was the one year anniversary to our tornado...F-3...scary nite...and not looking forward to tomorrow, at all!
 
ZackH
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:01 PM

I have seen some of the damage and its not quite as bad as reports made it out to be last night, obviously. But I'm still weary of the EF-2 word being thrown around. There is still nothing about a preliminary survey from the NWS on the Little Rock site and I doubt with all the storms today that they have had a survey team really look at it in detail yet. The damage I have seen looks at least EF-3 to me me.
 
steelers
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:05 PM

This is all I could find right now...I am sure when everything settles, there will be a more thorough report...

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

...TORNADO FROM THE EVENING OF APRIL 25TH CONFIRMED IN VILONIA...

PRELIMINARY REPORT...TORNADO DAMAGE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED IN VILONIA
ARKANSAS. AS OF THIS HOUR...THE DAMAGE THAT HAS BEEN SEEN SO FAR HAS
BEEN RATED AT AN EF2 ON THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE. THE SURVEY CREW
OF JOHN ROBINSON...WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST...AND RENEE
FAIR...METEOROLOGIST IN CHARGE...HAS SAID THE SURVEY WILL CONTINUE
IN THE AREA AND THE RATING MAY BE UPGRADED IN THE FUTURE.
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:06 PM

things are ok here at the house had two areas of rotation during that one passed south of town another formed and passed nw of town had hail and heavy wind and a lot of lightning along with blinding sideways rain....don't know if there was a touchdown did anyof ya'll see a debris ball on this as i was taking tornado action....
 
GregWx
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:06 PM

I'm glad to see the surface cape coming down. It's off to bed with the weather radio just in case.

cape_2Bchange.gif
 
aarontabr
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:06 PM

What is the expected forward motion of the individual supercells tomorrow?
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:11 PM

my cell has a good hook now just ene of me.....very likely producing a tornado as it exits the parish to my northeast
headed toward oak grove...its over mostly rural farmland on the delta now....
Edited by mwbwhorton, 26 April 2011 - 11:14 PM.

 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:12 PM

Back-up RUC that goes out to 24 hrs.... this is for 3:00 pm Central tomorrow...
dewpt_am_18.png
 
mwbwhorton
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:20 PM

Tstorm warning now for 80 mph winds possibly and hail storms areforming a line justto my south...
 
Parysa
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:25 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 10:21 PM, said:

The cap is an inversion in the low to mid-levels where the temperature increases with height in a layer. This puts a lid on the atmosphere, and can delay thunderstorm development. To see a cap on a sounding... you will look at the temperature plot... and when you see it kink rightward, warmer, in a layer above the ground.. that's also often associated with a sharp change to dry air... that is your capping inversion.

That rightward nudge on the temp plot near 850-mb in the sounding below... that's the cap.
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Thank you for that, Fred. We're going over skew-t charts in class now and my instructor sucks, so i was wondering how people could tell when the cap was breaking.
 
aarontabr
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:27 PM

mwbwhorton, on 26 April 2011 - 11:11 PM, said:

my cell has a good hook now just ene of me.....very likely producing a tornado as it exits the parish to my northeast
headed toward oak grove...its over mostly rural farmland on the delta now....
Click to expand...


The latest warning for that cell does mention sturctual damage from a possible tornado in Morehouse Parish.
 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:28 PM

ALhurricane, on 26 April 2011 - 11:25 PM, said:

The 00z 4km SPC WRF is a mess for tomorrow and seems plausible given the current radar. That would certainly throw a wrench into the higher end threat.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/00/
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This will be a good test for it. It is plausable given the radar... and then the RUC, NAM, and proprietary mesoscale models suggest that we rapidly destabilize the warm sector tomorrow. This should be interesting.

 
Jason Echols
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:29 PM

Looks like things are firing up again in NE Louisiana. Several new TORs
 
ARCC
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:29 PM

Fred Gossage, on 26 April 2011 - 11:12 PM, said:

Back-up RUC that goes out to 24 hrs.... this is for 3:00 pm Central tomorrow...



Due south surface winds... and the light orange would be 70 deg F dewpoints.
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I don't know if you seen the HRRR from last hour. It had some junk convection, which was dieing off. The crazy part is this, it had cape over 2000 for all areas south of where the dieing MCS temporarily cooled things off. The time was 16z......

BTW, 0-1km SRH was over 300 and 0-3km SRH was over 500 for the same time frame.
Edited by ARCC, 26 April 2011 - 11:34 PM.

 
Fred Gossage
Posted 26 April 2011 - 11:31 PM

Then, a lot of what is located north of the Louisiana supercell cluster is weakening...
 
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